Here are two small-school comparisons who put up similar numbers to Lillard: Rodney Stuckey Lester Hudson The only difference being, both of them put up those numbers in their sophomore years.
Agree that both are close, but Stuckey only shot 27% from three that year. So, maybe you call Lillard's ceiling Stuckey with a better outside shot? That's not too bad. The floor is Hudson, also possible.
Age is something you have to take into consideration. But, I think Lillard would have came out after his sophmore year had he not missed most the season.
Interesting Lillard v. Marshall comparison: http://www.hornets247.com/blog/2012/06/13/tenth-pick-tournament-round-two-kendall-marshall-vs-damian-lillard/
Did you see the Sacramento pre-draft workout? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyFJOEjZPFw What is significant is that this isn't a Youtube video compiling an entire career worth of highlights into one clip. This is a guy who turned on a video camera from the sidelines of a pre-draft workout (with a team that most likely won't even draft him) for a 3 minute span of time. Just look at the form and the shooting skill. We've all heard of the comment "You can't teach height.". But similar to that, there's something along those same lines of "You can't teach lights-out shooting". When you see pure shooting like that it really reminds us old-timers of guys like Bird, Reggie Miller, Mullin, Rick Barry, etc. And while I'm not saying some of those guys didn't bring other skills to the game that Lillard possibly might be missing once you put him in an NBA environment, my point is that Lillard's form and shot remind me exactly of players like that, and players who have that skill as their primary asset in their games traditionally do very well in the NBA (see above list of said players).
What I don't get is how people are comparing Beal's 3pt shooting to Ray Allen's. He shot 33% from three in college. Lillard is a better shooter than Beal.
But have you seen an NBA workout? There's a big difference between "edit" and just pausing a camera while the player moves from spot A after ending his drill and spot B to begin his his next drill. This wasn't like "edit" where they focused on the positives or cut out misses. This was just paused between dead spots and done from a neutral party.