I don't think we'll drop Brandon Roy

This quote from Blazer's Edge talks about a provision in the waiver system for amnesty players that could be a big factor in the decision as to whether to waive Brandon:

I like the fact that teams with cap space get first call on the amnesty players. It will be hard for me to see Brandon playing somewhere else, but seeing him play for the Lakers, Heat or Knicks would really suck.

 

This is a gift. Even Brandon Roy would understand this move. If you don't waive him his contract and his knees will cripple this franchise for the next four years.

 

So other teams are going to take a chance on Roy and make a worth while bid that will help the Blazers save money? Why would they take that chance? I don't see it. If he is healthy enough to bid on then he is healthy enough to keep.

And by worth while I mean over 1/3 of his salary. Not going to happen.

 

Agreed. This is an interesting idea, but in practice it won't affect Roy. Every Lakers fan seems to be geeked at the idea of adding Roy - but only at a veteran's minimum. And no fan of any team actually under the cap is AT ALL geeked at adding Roy.

 

Well I'm sure Allen will have an active say in whatever happens with Roy too ... regardless, the fear that he might go to a so-called rival and light us up 2 or 3 games a year is no reason not to remove him and worry about making your own team more competitive. The Blazers need to be worried about their own 82 games a year and how to make themselves as competitive as possible and not a slight handful where he could theoretically drop a "revenge" scoring outburst on them.

Are you seriously worried about this broken down version of Roy against Wesley Matthews, Nic Batum or Gerald Wallace covering him? I sure as hell don't.

 

I understand that with a max contract 1 realy good game out of every 5-6 is not that great. But 1 really good game every 5-6 games is still better than what most players can offer.

Now if he hurts us the other 4-5 games then that is counter productive, but I believe he won't. He may disappear for a few games, but we have other players who can contribute. I say wait a year.

 

Look at Roy's game log from last year

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3027/brandon-roy

The longer he played the worse he got and the longer the drought between so called good games was. We're not talking about "not so great" for a max player, that's pretty much abysmal for a mid-level guy too. Roy played barely above replacement level last year and with more wear and tear, it's unlikely to get better, but will probably get worse. Hanging on for a year is only delaying the inevitable and muddles the lineup and makes it harder to rebuild/re-tool when decisions on Nic and other players like Felton, etc. loom large.

 

I just feel like I can already hear Larry Miller at a PC justifying keeping Brandon Roy.

Regardless of the bs reason he would give, I think the ultimate reason why they would keep him is for ticket sales, which they obviously wouldn't admit.

Not that Roy would necessarily attract more fans, but cutting him could kill hopes and drive away fans, though. That said, winning does cure everything.

 

He had knee surgery last year and was playing injured. He probably could have pulled an Oden and just sat out the year to avoid being criticized, but Brandon is actually a competitor who lives and breathes basketball.

Remembering him getting torn apart on this board last year opens up some old wounds. I'm glad the lockout is over, because I was actually beginning to get along with everybody here, and that just ain't right!

 

if i were the blazers, id at least want to see if he is any improved, its a tough decision, but if allen is willing to spend the money, im not about to look that gift horse in the mouth

 

I really don't see ticket sales as a reason. Like you said, it's all about winning.

 

Howard Beck:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/28/s...nba-team-can-waive-one-bad-contract.html?_r=1

 

ESPNSteinLine Marc Stein
Amnesty Clause Rumble of the Day: Blazer coaches have been advised that using provision to waive Brandon Roy is strong possibility. AND ...

 

ESPNSteinLine Marc Stein
As @HowardBeckNYT notes in latest amnesty piece, releasing Roy wouldn't net cap room for Blazers. But if Paul Allen can stomach cost ...

 

ESPNSteinLine Marc Stein
If Allen can eat $60-plus mil left on Roy deal, full mid-level exception usage AND re-signing of Oden easier to pull off for GM-less Blazers

 

ESPNSteinLine Marc Stein
New Sota coach Rick Adelman, I'm told, would have level of interest in signing Roy after knee fears led to Wolves' Roy/R. Foye draft swap

 

It wont net cap room for the Blazers this year, but it will next year. Brandon will make 16.4 million dollars next year, and if Gerald Wallace picks up his option we'll have 49.5 million dollars. This does not count the cap holds for free agents/restricted free agents and draft picks which we would hold the bird rights to (if this is still in the CBA); but those can be renounced to take off the cap hold. If we use the amnesty on Roy we'd have 33.1 million. We'd then decide if we wanted to resign Greg, Nic and Felton (if we don't do so this year, with Greg's RFA status and I think Nic is eligible for an extension which Portland would probably be best to try to get this year incase Nic blows up), or if we wanted to waive their rights if we thought we could sign a big name (we could negotiate with them and get confirmation before waiving rights).

Or we could resign one of them and still have enough for a big free agent. Last year's salary cap was 58 million dollars, I thought I had heard this years would be closer to 60 but I admit to being unsure, as I believe I read it in passing. Next year's wont be available for a bit, IIRC.

But waiving Brandon very much does net cap relief - just not this year; and, it gives us most likely our only chance of getting another legit all-star level player (that doesn't have questionable health or potential like Greg and Nic) to play alongside LaMarcus during his prime. This is something we must take advantage of if we want to make the most of LaMarcus' best years. Otherwise we are most likely stuck in second round mediocrity unless a great trade is pulled off.

I love Brandon and I am thankful for all he did for the organization and for us as fans. But this is a business move, and Brandon still gets his money and has a chance to play with another team. There is just no team that is going to trade for his contract, and the reality is his current level of play will not be worth the 16-19 million he is going to make for the next four years, and will weigh the team down. I'd rather Brandon's twilight years not turn LaMarcus' prime years into nothing much accomplished.

 

Oh, I see it is 75% of the cap from his contract now, so not 33 million, but still a very nice chunk of change.

 

Yes that is to much to ask, you'll never hear that type of quote because its confidential medical information. Disclosure has to come from Roy, that's why all the Oregonian articles that talk about what the doctors opinions are of Roy's knees quote Roy. The doctor cannot disclose Roy's medical information to the press.

 

If Allen wants to wait a year before using the amnesty on Roy I'm fine with it. He will have to pay the contract either way, so the benefit to cutting Roy now is reducing luxury tax and possibly having the full mid level exception. Not having the full exception isn't necessarily a bad thing, it will prevent us from signing a player such as Landry or Crawford to a bad contract that we are stuck with next offseason. We can wait for a year then decide to cut Roy when we have better information on the contract status of Oden/Felton/Wallace/Batum.

But if Allen wants to pocket luxury tax savings and has confirmation Roy's knees are forever done then I'm fine with him cutting Roy now. I'm just glad we will be able to get out of his contract by next offseason when we actually have a chance at cap room. The PatterNash regime screwed us by signing ZBo/Miles/Theo to massive extensions for years with a team less talented then what we have now and no chance of cap room.

The only real bad scenario I could see is if we amnesty Camby then are stuck with Roys contract for years no matter how bad his knees get. Yuck.