Re: Oden, in retrospect He may never live up to the hype or be what we expected him to be. But him losing weight and gaining his freakish athleticism back and being a 16/12/2 player in his prime along with great D and a refined offensive game that helps the team greatly because he gets doubled a lot... I think that would be enough for us, and is what i'm hoping for. Don't give up hope though, man. He will be alright... he had everything going against him this year and he himself rated himself low and said he can do much better. He will be much better next year.
The "bust" label is largely associated with where you are picked in the draft. If Batum doesn't improve over where he is now, would he be considered a bust? Probably not because he was a very late pick and he is a serviceable role player. Oden, on the other hand, was a #1 pick and especially when you factor in the opportunity cost (the forgoing of Kevin Durant), having a serviceable role-playing Oden would in most respects be considered a bust. However, such judgments are often easy to make two or three years down the road. If we had Durant, we'd probably love his offensive prowess but complain about his defense, etc. Perhaps we'd look at him as an upgraded Outlaw (but knowing us, we'd still question many aspects of his game). Sometimes the opportunity costs (for example, Martell over Paul) result in better payoffs down the road (we got Roy & Aldridge); sometimes they are just sunk costs and you look back in hindsight (great to have) and say "Well, sounded good at the time". I think any judgment of Oden at this point is suspect. One of the things that made him so highly regarded coming out of college was his athleticism. This year, coming off surgery, he didn't have that athleticism and without it, he is a serviceable, but not great center. If he'd had the MF in college and then had to wait to recover and played as he did this year, he would probably have been a mid-first round pick - not a high lottery pick. We've seen other players recover from MF surgery and it has almost always required them at least a year (of playing) to get back to where they were before. Let's see what happens with GO over the summer and how he looks next year. At that point, the apologists/give the benefit of a doubt people won't have an excuse (hey, I'm one of them) and, I think, we'll have a better picture of who GO is and what we can expect from him in regard to long-term plans for the Blazers. Gramps...
Look, guys, relax, really..... Take a chill pill. Oden's "entire game" wasn't "taken away". Oden basically finished 7th in the league in rebounds/48, and he clearly is not nearly as nimble as he will be. Yes, he was probably 1st in the league in fouls/48, but I really think that is fixable. Even with his difficulties, he helped the blazers to be #1 in the league in rebounding %... NUMBER FREAKING ONE. So, to the haters, the real question is... are you just frustrated, do you think Oden will have foul trouble for the rest of his career, or do you think Oden will get healthier and somehow just forget how to rebound? Regardless of how you answer, the real answer is the first. Hey, I understand. It's a frustrating time. But relax, Oden will be better than fine, he'll be great (if you have any doubts ask Eric/Kingspeed! )
Little early to fire up the bust train. Let's give him ONE season healthy before writing him off. Just one, single season fully recovered from the microfracture surgery. I know: excuses, excuses.
I recall some people were on the "Joel is over paid" wagon or "get rid of Joel" two years ago. It takes time. Duckworth sucked in San Antonio. Joel took like 5 years. This is Yao's first year out of the first round in 6 years? We need to chill and give him sometime. I am with most of you and very disappointed with his play especially in the playoff. I hope Maurice is well soon but we need to hire Hakeem or David Robinson to work and mentor Greg. Mo was never an offensive juggernaut and the league is going away from the grind out, physical plays. Before we cut him loose give him all the help we can.
ok. for everyone talking about oden averaging 15/10/2 or 16/12/2 or something like that is his prime, those would be his numbers if he produces at the same rate he did this season but stayed out of foul trouble enough to play 36 minutes per game. his per 36 numbers were 14/11/2. now per 36 numbers don't necessarily mean anything, but it's not like oden was playing 10 minutes a game in mostly garbage time so his projected numbers will be way off. he basically put up 9 and 7 in 20 minutes a game. those are good numbers, he just needs to get the minutes up.
If he is still the same player in 4 years as he is now then he will be an absolute bust. Probably one of the biggest in NBA history. Certainly drafting him will haunt KP for years and years if he doesn't pan out. That said, big men can take longer to get it going under the best of circumstances. Greg coming off of micro-fracture surgery is a tough situation to be in. I would say the next two years are going to be very important for him. Next year he needs to learn to stop committing the stupid ass foul he commits twice every single game (The one where he tries to ride the point guard/shooting guard to the baseline. That had to have happened 100 times this season). The year after he will learn to slow down and will develop a couple of go to moves in the post. I have never felt for one second he would average more then 15 points a game. I do think he will average more then 10 rebounds a game and more then 1 block a game. I would put his absolute ceiling at 15/15/2.5. This makes him a clone of Nate Thurmond, the player I believe Oden is most like. Since Nate is in the HOF, I wouldn't complain much if I was correct in my assessment and Oden maximized his potential. I really don't understand why Portland would need more then 15ppg from him. Roy and LaMarcus are going to be the main scorers on this team for the next ten years. Oden's contributions on the boards and on defense are going to be FAR more valuable to the team then his scoring ever could be.
Because you need an elite pivot man that can command double teams and still produce shots at a fifty+ percent rate, without a dominant paint presence you don't free up enough space for your guards and wings. It's not the number of points so much as the attention teams have to devote to covering him ... this isn't quite as important in the regular season as it is in successive playoff series where you grind out possessions and wear teamd down over a two month 'second season'
Yao averaged 13 & 8. Same as Amare. Neither were busts. If Oden averaged 13 & 8 this season, we all would have been ecstatic.
Name a single big man who only averaged 8 & 6 in his rookie year but went on to be a Hall of Fame center. Hall of Fame centers don't take time to get acclimate to the game. Most of them dominate right away or at least give numbers like 14 & 10 in their rookie year.
Also- lots of critical comments about Oden in this thread, but they don't get as attacked as I do when I say the same things.
Greg IS in a unique position. Name me one other highly touted pick that had to have a season ending surgery with a year and half recovery time before he ever played a single minute in the NBA? The trouble is, we are in uncharted waters with Oden, we don't know what a healthy Greg coming straight in from college would have looked like (a helluva lot more explosive I'm guessing).
Yes, Oden was/is unique. But that is not what was said. What was said that, in general, centers take time to develop. Not "centers who had surgery" but centers in general and that is flat out not true.
There is a difference between an "explanation" and an "excuse". The knee injury may explain why he is a disappointment, but it doesn't make him any less of a disappointment. Heck, you just don't want to man up and admit I was right - Rose is better than Oden!
OK, maybe I missed something, but who said centers take time to develop and why is that not true? Or have you set the bar at Hakeem, Robinson, Chamberlain, Shaq, Russell level or it's 'bust-ville' for Oden?
also most centers go very early in the draft and most of those teams are looking to rebuild. greg came into a situation where he didn't have to be the man, like shaq and others did.
no one has out and out called him that in this thread but they have beat around the bush. and there have been plenty of threads and posts calling him a bust over the last couple months.
Greg is unique - and he comes back from a long inactivity period and is not yet as explosive as he will be next year. Add the fact that Greg came to a team that was playing to get into the playoffs and get HCA and he did not come as a savior as other great centers that came before him like Yao (his team went 43-39 in his rookie year) or Howard (his team won 36 games in his rookie year) or even Shaq (his team won 41 games). Those teams also did not have a good center playing the best basketball of his career in front of him. The Blazers did have Joel playing out of his mind, did have a team fighting for HCA - and the need to get the HCA has limited Greg's minutes even more than usual - because it was important to keep Joel in long minutes and Nate trusted him more - remember - Joel played all 82 games for the first time in his career this year. With this in mind - the only thing that makes sense is to judge him on his per-minute production - he did not get long minutes because of foul trouble, his athletic ability that was not there - making it a hard adjustment for his mind - because his body could not get to the position his basketball-iq tells him he needs to be - and the team's need to secure HCA with a good center playing. If you look at Greg's per-minute production - it is off the charts. When you do that - Greg Oden, recovering, playing a lot less minutes than either of these guys - is on the same production per minute as anyone not named Shaq. That is some scary stuff - especially when you notice that the raw, unskilled Greg Oden scored more efficiently as a rookie than either of these guys including Shaq (his TS% is the highest). Think about that for a second - and adjust your thinking. Greg is a special special talent - and if you can not see that - you should really consider learning the game before you post...
You are right. Greg probably won't be a HOF center. And yes, that was what he was hyped to be but it turns out it was wrong. I still wonder how it would be like right now if he played last year, didn't put on that weight and stayed in shape with his athleticism. Getting his body back to his HS/College years (with that same athleticism) will almost automatically equal a double double in my mind. Probably 11/10 at least, even with his current skill set. That is what I think. I also do not agree with per-minute production. Maybe for a little stretch, but for someone playing 20mpg to stretch it to 36mpg isn't doin' it for me. I think if its kept within a 5-7 minute range that would make more sense.... but i'm not going to compare Oden to Tim Duncan because their per-minute numbers were similar their rookie year. That just seems like a stretch to me, and something non-blazer fans would probably laugh at. Especially if you are comparing a 20mpg player to someone who played near 36mpg in the first place. Yeah, KS always puts out that arguement and when you say it will take him time he points out that the great, HOF centers didn't take time. Then he says "I thought that was what we were getting when we drafted him"...
