JayJohnstone, it looks like Paxson did end up finding a complete salary dump for Kirk. I will have more information on it on my site later today. On Afternoon Saloon, John Paxson said that he had one more trade that would have set them up really good for 2010, but couldn't do it because of basketball reasons. He then said that he has one more move that could happen in the next year or so that would accomplish that. Also said that he will fine Joakim Noah this summer if he doesn't work out. Paxson had to be talking about Kirk Hinrich. There is no one else on this team he could have been talking about. I think K.C. Johnson is right. The Bulls will try to re-sign Ben Gordon this summer, with John Salmons as insurance if Gordon signs elsewhere. I think Kirk only stays if Gordon leaves in free agency at this point, but I think Paxson has already committed in his mind to go with Rose and Gordon for the future. So far, at the beginning of the season, when we really sucked, Ben was the only guy he said was learning to play with Derrick Rose. He said yesterday how much he values Ben, and how he's very pleased with the players he has on the wings. If we re-sign Ben, I wonder if Paxson told Portland he would dump Hinrich to them for a 2nd round draft pick or something in the summer. That would set us really good going into the deadline next year. We'd have: PG-Derrick Rose SG-Ben Gordon Sf-Luol Deng That would be our three keepers. Then we'd have our trade assets: Brad Miller - $12.3 million expiring contract Tim Thomas - $6.5 million expiring contract Jerome James - $6.6 million expiring contract John Salmons - Affordable rotation player. Tyrus Thomas - solid young prospect Joakim Noah - young prospect $9.5 million trade exception - from Kirk Hinrich trade Those are some mighty good assets to have. I think JR/Pax are ready to dive into the luxury tax in 2010. Not just for the hell of it, because they believe they can make the Bulls into contenders. That is, they believe that they will be able to pillage the rest of the league either during 2009 Draft or before the 2010 trade deadline. The Bulls seem to have a plan, let's see if this one works out.
Realistically, Ben Gordon has to be a Bull, at least until around next trade deadline. The Bulls are unlikely to get anything of value for Gordon, as he is an unrestricted free agent this time around. Not a restricted free agent like Eddy Curry was. Maybe you can dump Hinrich/Nocioni's unfriendly contracts along with him, but a team like Dallas, where Mark Cuban already said 2009 might be like a nuclear winter, and he's going to take advantage of that, would probably love to add both Hinrich and Gordon to his team at the same time. What's this leave us with? Cap relief. Derrick Rose, John Salmons, Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah core. Where is that going to get us? The lottery. Why would a big name free agent want to come to a losing team? Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, Andres Nocioni, those guys are damaged assets at this point. Nocioni and Deng have injury problems and all three have erratic production. There's a reason why we couldn't get complete 2010 relief for Nocioni. Ben Gordon right now is averaging 20.8 PPG on 57.8 TS%. How can you throw that away for nothing? You have to retain that just looking at it form an asset point of view. You aren't going to have much trouble moving a 20 PPG scorer, who scores efficiently, and who is still young. Losing that much volume of scoring on that type of efficiency, logically, would cripple the Bulls as a team. So now we are a worse team, which makes us an unattractive free agent destination, and we will have lost our second best asset, a number 3 overall draft pick for absolutely nothing. If we have to overpay Gordon a bit to keep him around, that's fine. You probably can make him a lifetime Chicago Bull, as he is ideal next to Rose (one of the top three point shooters, as well as fastbreak scorers in the NBA). If things don't work out, we won't have much trouble moving him. But to lose an asset like BG for nothing is crazy talk.
I'd much rather have a really bad team with a good chance to get a great player in the draft than a mediocre team (which is what the bulls will be if they retain BG and don't get an upgrade at every other position including Rose turning into a defensive stopper) and a late lottery pick. The worst thing that the bulls did in the last ten years was to try and win a few games in 2002-2003. Winning 30 games that year cost them at shot at Wade, LBJ, Bosh and Melo. We've had a year and a half to see where BG can get this team, and the results are pretty clear: nowhere special. BG doesn't make the bulls a contender so if he leaves, the bulls are no worse off. For every high TS% stat, there is a horrendous TOV% and a really bad APM. If BG wants to sign a deal friendly to the bulls cap space, fine. Otherwise, bye.
Sucking generally leads to a losing culture, which breeds more losing imo. We got our superstar without having to bottom out this time. We shouldn't want to bottom out. There's a chance that we could be around a 50 win team with Gordon here next year, as long as Rose pans out. If Gordon's not here, and Rose pans out, we could be around a .500 team. Re-signing Gordon and leveraging our expiring contracts seems like the best path to rebuild at this point.
If I remember correctly, Pip was a UFA and the Bulls did an S&T to facilitate him going to a team that otherwise couldn't afford to bid for him on the open market. That's how I see Gordon going elsewhere.
