Is it too soon to talk about defensive rating?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Duckhook, Oct 24, 2022.

  1. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    upload_2022-12-15_22-48-13.png
     
  2. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    You can't be serious with number 2...
     
  3. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Chauncey's a better offensive coach too but that's another argument
     
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  4. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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  5. OneSport3

    OneSport3 The Knowledge Hoarder

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    Cmon man. You can’t use any data from last season when the team was actively trying to lose games. Trying to use any data from last season to make your point would be completely disingenuous.
     
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  6. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    I've been pretty consistent (I've probably slipped a few times) that I don't use "effort" "heart" "caring" and all these other meaningless terms when trying to make a point. Those things are incredibly prone to confirmation bias and are typically only used when people are unable to back up their opinion with substantive information.

    I think Billups is a good coach though!
     
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  7. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    I did mention earlier there was data in the first 30ish game of last season that also had our defensive rating near the bottom (before Dame was out and we were tanking).

    I think to say our defense is way better in the last 2 years in comparison to the previous 8 years, would be completely ignoring the data. If you want to throw out last year all together due to injuries (but keep other seasons when Nurk was out), that's fine. This year, still wouldn't rank in the top 3 defensive ratings we've had in the last 10 years. Does that mean Billups sucks? No way, he's a good coach.

    I get this is tough for the people who said any change would be a major upgrade for our defense. Instead of using data, we want to talk process and evaluate the effort, heart, hustle, etc.
     
  8. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    Here is where Portland ranked in November of 2021 when we were still trying to win. I don't consider 29th out of 30, a significant improvement.

    https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-teams-defensive-rating-this-season-by-month-november-2021

    December of 2021 we improved to 28th out of 30 teams.

    https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-teams-defensive-rating-this-season-by-month-december-2021

    This was with nearly the same roster as we finished the 2020-21 season with. Is that completely disingenous?
     
  9. OneSport3

    OneSport3 The Knowledge Hoarder

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    I get that this has been the hill you’ve been willing die on for years, but to compare last season to seasons when “Nurk was out” is completely laughable and disingenuous. Let me say this again, the team/organization was actively trying to lose games last season.
     
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  10. OneSport3

    OneSport3 The Knowledge Hoarder

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    Yes it is absolutely disingenuous. The team had a new coach and was trying to implement new systems. This is where you’re being disingenuous and hypocritical because you yourself have stated on multiple occasions this season that it’s still too early to judge the team. Yet you’re using the same timeframe and data set from last season to make this point and arrive at your conclusion?

    I’m not even debating if there is any improvement or not. The only point I’m arguing is using any data from last season is disingenuous. That includes the “first 30ish” games from last season.
     
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2022
  11. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    I think waiting until we have 3 new starters and a brand new bench to measure the effectivness of a coaching changes impact on the defensive end would be far less meaningful than using the first 3 months of last season when we were still trying to win and had a very similar roster to the previous season.
     
  12. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    The stance I've maintained is that I didn't think a coaching change would yield a significant change and that the roster was by far the primary cause of the problems. This current team has 3 rotation players from the 2020-21 season left. That's it.

    The people who were saying any new coaching staff with a pulse would be light years better than the previous staff, want to make this about "process" and "caring" because story telling is all that they have.
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2022
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  13. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Man, you watched Stotts never switch up what he was running despite being constantly horrible and heard him act like DJJ wasnt any better defensively than Melo but you sit here talking about OTHERS not backing up their opinions? As if Chauncey isn't running different stuff to keep teams off balance, actively searching for what scheme works best for his roster while also holding guys accountable? And it's led to improvement no matter how much you want to act like it hasn't. AND he hasn't had his best defender.
     
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  14. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    You are a great story-teller, I'll give you that. Keep pointing to 100% subjective terms like process, accountability, effort, searching, etc. and I'll stick with the data: Off/Def Rtg, wins, playoff success, etc.

    I won't even go into depth about the flaw in pointing out that "the best defender" is missing on this roster when that same player was missing on the previous 9 rosters as well. As mentioned before, I would expect the defensive productive to improve when the defensive talent on the roster has improved. That's been my stance for years.
     
  15. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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  16. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    We give up way to many corner 3s and rolls/drives to the rim. This is probably my biggest gripe with our defense: From Synergy

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    I agree with you!
     
  18. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    nearly impossible to glean anything substantial just from that chart. I can't gauge how many passes after the initial PnR Synergy says are derived from the PnR.

    from NBA.com:

    *Portland allows 0.80 PPP to PnR ball-handlers which is 3rd best in the NBA. Portland allows 1.05 PPP to PnR roll men and again, that is 3rd best in the NBA. That tells me that Portland's PnR defense at the point of attack is excellent. Those roll man stats tells me there is a significant conflict between NBA.com and Synergy.

    * Portland allows the 5th lowest PPP on isolation
    * Portland is the 26th on PPP on transition (about average frequency)
    * Portland is 14th in PPP on post-up (only 5% of defensive possessions)
    * Portland is 23rd in PPP on spot-up (24th in frequency at 28%)

    ********************
    from bbref:

    * Portland gives up the 3rd most corner 3's in the NBA at 27.7%; and they are 13th in opponent corner three conversion rate. So yeah, that's a weakness

    * Portland is 14th in opponent FG% at the rim and they give up the highest rate in the league. So yeah, another weakness

    * in other shooting zones Blazers are 10th in opponent FG% in the 3-10' zone; 4th in the 10-16' zone; and 6th in the long-two 16-#P zone

    all that tells me the Blazers are poor at defensive rotations and likely allow too much penetration. Both of those seem substantially correctible
     
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  19. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    The data shows we've improved. The data shows the starting lineup is a top 10 defense. Derrick Jones Jr. was a better point of attack defender than anyone the Blazers have on this roster. Gary Payton II is our point of attack defender.
     
  20. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Or that the Blazers are overhelping on the Pick n Roll which often leads to corner 3s, and would result in the statistical profile you posted.
     

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