Is Simons really just Jake Layman?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Binx, Feb 27, 2020.

  1. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    It's actually pretty rare that a player, even a super young one, starts off this badly and later emerges as a really good one. So, I'm not going to try to "scout" him (because it's easy to get see a player's talent in his best moments and extremely hard to figure out how likely it is that he develops consistency) and just rely on the history that eventually-good players generally don't look completely lost and put up horrendous numbers (both in terms of raw numbers and advanced numbers) in their first couple seasons. So, most likely Simons is going to go the way of someone like Telfair. But who knows--exceptions happen.
     
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  2. julius

    julius Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Exactly. Neither him or Trent were supposed to be relied on as much as they were DUE to injuries. Yes, Simons was supposed to play minutes, but I don't think he was supposed to be getting the attention he was getting this year. His role changed a lot because of injuries.

    The game still needs to slow down for him, and he needs to bulk up a bit. I didn't have unrealistic expectations for him like so many did. I wanted him to do better, but I'm not upset.

    It's not like he's Nolan Smith or Turean Green or any of other guys that people thought were going to be good to borderline great players for the team. Those guys didn't have athleticism and shooting skills behind them.
     
  3. julius

    julius Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    I'm not sure it's a fair comparison to compare him to Telfair. Telfair was shorter and didn't have a good shot outside of the paint. Telfair also had the hype of NY behind him.

    but I'm not sure he's actually starting off "this badly". Kawhi Leonard didn't start off super great (averaged fewer points per 36 his first year). He didn't start to take off as far as offensive production until about his 5th year in the league.

    I am NOT saying that Anfernee is the same as Kawhi (or that he WILL be a starter quality player). Just that it's easy to give up on a players #'s when you are comparing them to how someone like Damian came into the league (after 4 years in college..). Fans are short sighted all the time (just as much as they hold onto players too long too).

    Look at Hardens first year. Averaged 9 points, shot 40% from the floor, 3 rebounds and 2 assists. He improved significantly after that year. So it can and does happen.

    Look at Giannis' first 2 years. He wasn't destroying the league. He's doing fine now.

    You put Damian in the league after his Freshman year in college and it's doubtful he would've been that productive as he was at 22.
     
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  4. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    I agree, but there's a difference between not lighting the league on fire and posting absolutely horrendous numbers. Leonard and Harden were the first category, not the second. Telfair was the second category, which is why I made the comparison. I wasn't comparing their games, just that both posted absolutely terrible numbers, especially when you look at more advanced numbers than PPG/APG/RPG. It's incredibly rare that players (even really young ones) start off that poorly and then later turn it around to be good or very good.
     
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  5. oldmangrouch

    oldmangrouch persona non grata

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    Read this forum for any ammount of time and you will hear some variation on this argument: player A is better than player B, but it doesn't matter because player B is younger.

    What's your yardstick here? What convinces you that Player B is the better player even though on court performance says otherwise?

    Furthermore, the age argument seems to ignore the question of team needs. If a team has a chance to contend, their needs are obviously different from a team on a 5 year rebuilding plan. If we were talking about not sniffing the WCF for the next 5+ years, I might roll the dice on Simons. If we intend to do it during Dame's prime - I want a player not a project.
     
  6. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    1M will be fine. Let’s give him another year. They will anyway. Might as well root for the kid and hope he continues to learn.
     
  7. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    that's all generally true. Obviously, there are exceptions, but Simons is not the first NBA player to be 20 years old in his 2nd season

    somebody mentioned Kawhi...yeah, his raw offensive production numbers increased a lot over his 2nd season. But, in his 2nd season, Kawhi had a TS% of .592 when his career mark is .597. His 2nd year rebound rate was 11.1% when his career mark is 11.6%. He was already reaching a lot of his career marks in efficiency. What jumped up for Kawhi from his 2nd season was his usage rate and stats tied to that expanded opportunity

    more impotently with Kawhi and many more players is they didn't regress in their 2nd season. Simons has; he's gone from a PER of 11.1 to 9.1. From a TS% of .535 to .502; from an assist% of 13.7% to 9.5%. And all this isn't coming because he's having his minutes jerked around by the coach like many young players go thru. He's been a consistent part of the rotation all season long and is averaging over 22 minutes/game. You want to see the inverse of those numbers, not regression
     
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  8. oldmangrouch

    oldmangrouch persona non grata

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    Agreed. The most likely explanation for his regression is that opponents have had a chance to scout him. They have adapted - he has not responded. Part of that is on the coaching staff, but Simons is not blameless here. He is not impressing me with either his BBall IQ or his drive to succeed. The other possibility is that we are over-rating his actual talent level. Personally, I still think it is his game, rather than his talent, that is at issue. :dunno:
     
  9. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    I think with Simons you can see the tools there to one day be an elite scorer in this league. He can shoot the 3 (yeah, obviously hasn't been great this year), can pull up in the midrange (again, not great this year), and has the athleticism to someday be an excellent finisher around the rim. The youth thing is a valid excuse for me because he seems to be at such a disadvantage physically compared to most other NBA players. It may never get this way, but if that gap closes and he becomes more physically imposing I think his game would take off.

    My philosophy to team building is that you always need to have at least a couple guys on the roster that are young and have pop potential to try and develop, even if your team is good. The problem is Portland has a bunch of those guys right now and they all have to actually play because of the injuries. I will concede that it was probably too soon to give Simons the role he went into the season having but we still don't know if it will help accelerate his growth in the next two years. If it does I think this was the perfect season to take his lumps given it just isn't their year. If he never develops then I think it would be one of Olshey's most massive miscalculations.
     
  10. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    Weird what scouting can do
     
  11. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Given that their raw stats are supposedly relatively close, the difference on the advance stats between those two is astounding.

    upload_2020-2-28_12-42-38.png
     
  12. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Not to mention their effects on their teams when they play.
     
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  13. Pinwheel1

    Pinwheel1 Well-Known Member

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    Next season is another year and these stats you are all posting won't mean shit. Not sure how long it will take Simons to be ready, but unless his work ethic is pathetic, he will eventually be a solid player.
     
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  14. Blazers Roy

    Blazers Roy Well-Known Member

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    It's unfortunate, but if he keeps this up he'll be playing in Lebanon or China in a few years.
     
  15. BlayZa

    BlayZa Misbehaving responsibly

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    yeah pretty much, there are still local card stores etc but few n far between, lotta sales go via FB and IG, but for buyer protection etc, Ebay is your safest bet :)
     
  16. julius

    julius Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    yeah, cause there's no place for a guard who averaged 9 points a game in what amounts to his rookie year and is incredibly athletic, smart and has tons of tools. Guys lucky to be in the league!
     
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  17. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

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    HOW CAN YOU POSSIBLY SAY THAT? The stats do not back it up, stats are the end all be all of talent evaluation. Does Not Compute. 1010101010101010. Mrrrrrrrrrr
     
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  18. julius

    julius Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    I think those who do feel that way, are confusing "tools" with "will be".

    he has the tools to be an elite scorer. He's athletic, quick, and has a quick and decent shot. It's not like he's going out there playing like Steve Blake or Earl Watson.
     
  19. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    I still say like I did at the start of the season, while Simons flashed potential here and there its alright to wait and see where he goes with it.
    Ive been dissapointed with his growth through the season, but who knows, I hope this was a good development year for him.
     
  20. Propagandist

    Propagandist Well-Known Member

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    I like how much you like him. I felt that way about Skal.

    That being said, he fails my infallible eye test AND the oft-referenced stat test (for example, http://www.sportstwo.com/threads/fo...-one-of-the-worst-seasons-of-all-time.354691/). But we'll never agree on this.

    How about this: Simons or even the pick that got him is just another indication that there isn't enough urgency surrounding Dame's prime. I'd say, the last thing we need is another little isolating guard. And I find the thought of watching Simons playing crunch for the next however many years, a wee bit soul crushing...
     
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