With LSU and Oklahoma State losing (and the loser of Oklahoma/Missouri still guaranteed to come in a few hours) they will be at least 0.830 in the computers on Monday. That means about the only way Oregon won't be #1 in the BCS is if Oklahoma somehow leapfrogs Boise State in the human polls (which won't happen because they can't leapfrog BSU on a bye week). There is a small chance they pass TCU in the Harris poll since that poll was close enough I could see a leapfrog if TCU doesn't run up the score on Air Force. But Oregon could still make up some ground on other computers and make that a moot point as well. Congrats to Oregon fans.
Missouri can and will. I've thought Oklahoma wasn't worthy of the number 1 ranking all along. They just haven't impressed me.
Unimpressive as they've been, I'm certainly surprised to see Missouri handling them like this. I didn't think that they had anything like this in them Wait, I just blinked--did Missouri just score again?
I think Auburn is going to lose to Bama in a few weeks. The team I'm worried about is MSU. Their have a cakewalk schedule for the remainder of the season. I'm hoping the computers don't give them a better SOS than ours. They have a legit shot of going undefeated, whereas Auburn really does not.
MSU still has to beat Iowa at Iowa. And even then, if we stay undefeated they have no shot to jump us. Looks like Auburn/Oregon is THE matchup. Both teams win out, both teams are in the mNC.
Looks like Oregon should be around 0.925 to 0.928. I have Auburn as a close 2nd actually now that I've calculated. They get so much love with two of the top computer schools losing that they also move up 2 spots in most computer polls and they get to move up around Oklahoma's spot in the human polls. So Missouri beating Oklahoma really hurt Oregon since Oregon would have passed Oklahoma in pts. But now Auburn got all of those computer pts and will move up in the human polls with Oklahoma falling. So they'll be around a 0.917 to 0.920 and right behind the Ducks.
WOW. I just did some calculations based on the Coaches poll and Auburn blew past TCU and almost caught up to Boise State for #2. This is going to be VERY close now. That Missouri win could kill Oregon's shot at #1 in the BCS. Harris hasn't come out yet, but if they get as many votes as they got in the Coaches poll and pass TCU, they'll be around 0.936, which would barely beat our Oregon who will be around 0.933 to 0.934. This is going to be a nail biter, but Auburn probably does deserve it given their schedule and Oregon hasn't played anyone yet and has their real schedule coming starting this upcoming week.
I covered the Missouri vs. Oklahoma game for my tv station yesterday. It was a pretty crazy game. This team is a lot better than the team two years ago. While that team had the best receiver in the nation in Maclin, this team is just better all around, with a better offensive line and a good defense. I don't think Blaine Gabbert is all that great of a quarterback, he's solid, but he doesn't absolutely choke in big games like Chase Daniel always did. This year looks like it might be one of the biggest BCS messes ever. Oregon has a decent chance of going unbeaten. Auburn has some tough games left, but it's still a possibility. If Michigan St. beats Iowa, they will go undefeated. Missouri has a good chance of going undefeated if they get past Nebraska next week, they'll still have to beat Oklahoma or Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship game...but if they get past Nebraska, they will at least go through the regular season undefeated...at which point it's a matter of not choking in the championship game. The winner of TCU/Utah will go undefeated. Boise State will go undefeated because of their cupcake schedule. Hopefully they can all win out, so there's finally a college football playoffs. It's going to be hard to justify not having one when a BCS team like Missouri, Oregon, or Michigan St. is left out of the championship game against Auburn, while going undefeated.
Auburn's both conference and non conference strength of schedule is weaker than ours. Unless there is some magical SEC biased built in, we will be #1.
They've played more ranked opponents than the Ducks through Saturday, so they'll get the computer love since they can't look at margin of victory. The upcoming weeks will even out as Auburn's schedule gets easier and the Ducks start finally playing good teams now.
If the Ducks go undefeated this season, and still don't end up the in the NC game, I will give up all hope on the BCS.
thats pretty much where I stand. I could maybe see Auburn staying #1 as they go through the SEC and a Championship game. But no one else will have THAT much tougher of a schedule to go undefeated through. But I'm trying not to get too worked up about it until when/if it happens.
I've already given up all hope in the BCS. I'm just hoping that the stars magically align for Oregon this time, and hope that in the future they'll have to institute a playoff.
