People are getting hung up on the cap relief. Nowhere did Woj say that cap relief was their number one priority. They said it was a stipulation, but he also mentioned quality veterans, prospects, and future assets. That's four very different things, and they aren't always congruent. Turner = veteran Trent = prospect Draft pick = future asset Aminu = cap relief Leonard is on a shorter and cheaper contract than Dieng, so it's possible they would consider that to be cap relief as well. But I want to highlight that nowhere did Woj say that cap relief was the paramount objective in their trade negotiations.
That isn't even close to what is meant by cap relief. I thought I broke it down for you pretty clearly. Going to Minnesota (Turner, Leonard, Aminu, and Trent): Salary for this season is $36,259,928 Going to Portland (Butler and Dieng): Salary for this season is $35,616,566 So for immediate purposes they are actually adding to their payroll for this year. With me so far? Minnesota future salary owed because of this trade (Turner, Leonard, Trent): $32,973,784 Portland future salary owed because of this trade (Dieng): $33,516,853 So in future salary the Wolves save a little over $500,000. If you add all the contracts in your trade the Wolves are actually taking on MORE salary than going out. You can't just ignore Turner's contract because you consider him the "vet" part of the trade. I'm sorry but that completely fails to give any cap relief.
Also, no one is saying that cap relief is their #1 priority. Heck, it might be least important part to that equation for all we know. However I can guarantee you that they aren't going to take on both Leonard and Turner in the same deal unless there is a much bigger reward for doing so. There has been a few ideas in here as to how Minnesota can get a bit of all 4 things they want, so it is possible to consider all 4 as priorities.
The longer this drags out, the clearer it becomes that someone is going to get Butler for below market value. When the story first broke, I was all for a Butler/C.J. swap. Not any more. I think Butler can be had for less. There is clearly a power struggle going on in MIN and Thibs is going to lose. In fact, he already has. It started on the court and in the locker room and has now worked its way up to the top. I think that list we are seeing is a combination of what Thibs wants (quality veteran(s)) and what Glen Taylor wants (top prostect(s), future assets and possibly cap relief). Glen Taylor is going to win this battle. He already has, If Thibs was still in control, Butler wouldn't be available. I think Taylor cares a whole lot less about "quality veteran(s)" than the other three items on the list. The only reason they are even required is to make salaries match, and the sooner they expire the better. Taylor wants to go young and build around KAT and Wiggins. He knows there aren't any "quality veterans" available that are going to have MIN competing with GSW or HOU any time soon. Even with Butler, before the injury, they weren't close last year. So, he wants to go completely young and build for the future. I think Taylor's priorities are the only ones that matter and I believe they are: 1) Top Prospects - by a wide margin. He's looking for the 3rd member of his Big 3 to go with KAT and Wiggins. 2) Future Assets - obviously a future lottery pick would improve his odds of finding that 3rd piece, but no one is going to give him one. So, a 1st round pick or two would be nice, but I think he'd also like a couple 2nd round picks. They don't get guaranteed contracts and they can help you fill out the back end of your roster on the cheap. 3) Cap relief, both short term and long term. KAT and Wiggins got PAID. So, it would be nice to have some cushion available for when that next big piece is coming off their rookie deal. 4) Quality Veterans - a distant last. The only reason any would even be required would be to make salaries match. So, how much are you willing to mortgage the future to get Butler? We have at least three young prospects that I think have value around the league: Collins, Simons and Trent Jr. Which of these would you be willing to give up. Would you be willing to give up 2 of the 3? If so, which two? Baldwin is also a young player with promise, but I doubt if he's considered a "top prospect", plus we don't hold his Bird Rights So, that makes him less desirable to MIN. We own all of our future 1st round picks, but unfortunately we don't own our 2019 2nd round pick and owe BRK our top 55 protected 2020 2nd round pick. Since that pick is conditional, I believe we could include it in a trade with MIN (our 2020 2nd round pick goes to MIN if it's in the 31-55 range and to BRK if it's in the 56 - 60 range). So, how many picks would you be willing to give up? I say no more than one first combined with one or two seconds. Cap relief means giving up Aminu, our only expiring contract of any size. Of course, there is also talk of taking back Dieng. I'd be willing to do that. He's overpaid, but he's a decent back up big man, and we're already short of those. If absorbing his contract gets the deal done, do it. No specific Trade Machine proposals yet, just thinking about what MIN REALLY wants and what kind of package we could offer them. BNM
Turner Harkless Trent and a first for Butler and Dieng may get this done once Glen Taylor takes over negotiations.
When is Minnesota gonna quit bullshitting around? Adrian Wojnarowski: “I know Minnesota was telling teams last week, ‘We’ve got an offer we really, really like. We’ve got an offer we’d do.’ Nobody believed them. Like, nobody believed them. And part of the problem for that Minnesota front office is, one GM/executive said to me, ‘In normal circumstances, they’re the most difficult in the league to deal with. In normal circumstances, they’re usually very unrealistic about what they can get back from you in a deal. Under these circumstances? They’re exponentially more difficult to deal with.’ And I wonder how that cat-and-mouse game plays out when you’re trying to create a marketplace for a player.” – viaitunes.apple.com
You have to imagine even Thibs at this point would want to get a trade Done. Id bet both the timberwolves and whoever trades with them would like to have the new players in camp, around their team, learning the plays and all that...
If I'm Paul Allen and I see this, I immediately have my Vulcans on the phone with Glen Taylor's people making arrangements to fly him out to my nearest yacht for an owner-to-owner sit down. Time to cut out the middlemen and get something done. Butler is obviously a Thibs guy and Thibs is first and foremost a coach. He doesn't want to do anything that would be a step backwards. He is negotiating with his heart and not his head. He is thinking short term, Glen Taylor is thinking long term. The only way a deal is going to get done it to start negotiating with the man who signs the checks, and out of respect, he should be meeting directly with his counterpart - Paul Allen. Paul can make a good case. He can tell Glen, look we have Damian Lillard, 1st team All NBA in the prime of his career. We want to win now (or at least soon) while Dame and C.J. are in their primes. Jimmy Butler makes sense for us. He fits with our timeline. You have invested heavily in your youth. You have given Andrew Wiggins and Karl Anthony Towns maximum extensions. They are your building blocks, the foundation of a future contender. They are booth 22 years old and won't even be entering their primes for another 4 - 5 years. You are building for the future, for the time when glory days of the Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets and LeBron James have passed. You can give us what we need and we can give you what you need. We have several young prospects that would compliment KAT and Wiggins, both on the floor and in terms of age. We own all of our future 1st round picks. We have veterans with salaries to match both Jimmy Butler, and Gorgui Dieng, assuming he doesn't fit in with your long term plans. We can help you out there, too. Because we are in win now/soon mode, Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic (you already have KAT anyway) are off the table. We are prepared to give you a combination of young prospects and draft picks, plus whatever else it takes to make the salaries work. Let's agree on the main pieces and then let Scott Layden and Neil Olshey dot the i's and cross the t's. We can make this work for both of us. We'd be foolish not to. BNM
Actually, I was thinking Simons makes the most sense of our young prospects, both for us and for MIN. I think of the three he has the greatest potential to be a future all star, which is what MIN wants. But, he's the also the furthest away from being a key rotation piece. If we do this trade, we are committing to win while Dame is in his prime and Collins and Trent Jr., even if they have lower upside than Simons, should be be ready to contribute and be part of the rotation much sooner. Plus Gibson is an expiring. So, I think MIN would prefer to keep him so they can let him walk next summer. I was thinking something like: Harkless Aminu Meyers Simons 2019 1st For: Butler Dieng Perhaps include our 2020 2nd (if it falls between 31-55 - if it falls between 56-60, we owe it to BRK). This trade saves MIN $5 million this year and a shit ton going forward. Aminu is a useful player who is also an exiting contract. In Meyers, we trade out overpaid, crappy backup center for their slightly less crappy, but even more overpaid back up center. Meyers makes $5 million a year less than Dieng and has 1 less year remaining. Harkless is included to make the salaries match, and with Butler starting at the 3 and all of Turner, Layman and Trent Jr. capable of playing back up minutes at SF, we don't need Harkless. One reason I want to keep Collins is every contender needs role players, and even if Collins never develops into a double digit scorer, I think he'd be a good enough 5th option to keep defenses honest. His real appeal is on defense. We were top 8 in defense last year with Dame, C.J., whoever, Aminu and Nurk. I could easily see us being one of the 3 best defensive teams in the league with Dame, C.J., Butler, Collins and Nurk as our starters. We'd also have Turner, Baldwin and Dieng as our backups who are all solid defensively. We'd also have the ability to go small with Dame, C.J., Butler, Turner, Collins, or if we really need a stop, Dame, Baldwin, Butler, Turner, Collins. Plus, Collins is the EXACT opposite of the young layers Butler has feuded with in CHI and MIN. He's a 20-year old who seems to care more about playing tough defense than scoring. He knows it was his defense that got him into the rotation last season, and if we make this trade, it will be his defense that has him starting. On the defensive end, Nurk + Collins >>>>>>>>> KAT + Wiggins. Our two youngest starters would actually be our second and third best defenders behind Butler. I think that would be a welcome change for Jimmy. Butler also says he wants to play with another superstar. We can give him that in Damian Lillard. To add Butler, without giving up any of Dame, C.J., Nurk or Collins immediately makes us a top 3 team in the West and distances us from UTA, OKC, NOP, SAS, DEN, MIN, etc. I think it also makes us a better playoff team than HOU, because of our defense. GSW would still have the edge on paper, but as we saw in the 2016 Finals, anything can happen. Even if GSW is 100% healthy, I think adding Butler without giving up any of our top 4 players, would at least let us make a series out of it and give us a puncher's chance - and that's this season. Our roster would be younger than GSW, so at some point on their way down, we should catch and pass them. Would MIN do it? Considering they don't seem to be getting any other great offers, I think they might - if it really is Glen Taylor calling the shots. In Simons, he gets a tantalizing young prospect with future all star potential. If he reaches his potential, he'd be a nice fit at SG with KAT at center and Wiggins at SF. They also get a 1st and a future 2nd. and they save money both short term and long term. BNM
I agree that Simons is a better prospect, which is exactly why I think MIN would insist he be included in any deal for Butler. You have to give something to get something and Butler is a top 15 payer in the league. To get him without giving up any of Dame, C.J., Nurk or Collins would be HUGE upgrade over our current roster. It all comes down to the short term vs. the long term. Butler fits Dame's timeline better than Simons. The key is if you trade away your best future prospect, you better be damn sure you can resign Butler next summer. BNM
Total salary taken on with this trade, assuming Butler opts out and Minnesota picks up Simons’ option. I’ll round to make it easier. Portland: $69m Minnesota: $65m + whatever the value of that first round pick is. Minnesota would be fools to even consider this package, and that’s just financially speaking. They’d essentially be adding salary. Basketball wise, I see quantity instead of quality.
Good point, I think Minny needs to get players with more immediate on the court value or they need expiring contracts. Sacramento would be willing to eat into next year's cap if they get draft picks. Maybe a three way trade with the below contracts and draft picks(or Simons) going to both Minny/Sacramento; SAC Turner Meyers, POR draft pick MIN Randolph, Shumpert, Koufos, POR draft pick POR Butler, Dieng http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ybb4d22w Another option if the Blazers want to avoid the 3rd year of Dieng contract, this would requires more draft assets such as multiple unprotected first round picks though; SAC Turner Dieng, 2x POR draft pick MIN Randolph, Shumpert, Koufos, POR draft pick POR Butler http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yav7lpgt
