Keeping our pick? This might be a Lottery year

Ugh

 

Yeah. This is my top in a vacuum.

 

Knicks @ Hornets: Knicks tied with Pelicans in the win column. Would like a win to keep the Knicks ahead of NOP. Pels tied in wins with Knicks and Wizards. Knicks won.
Hawks @ Pistons: Would like Pistons win. This one is more complicated but it has to do with them wanting Banchero. Pistons won.
Kings @ Pacers: Both teams 2 wins behind the Blazers. SAC has the easier remaining schedule, so hoping for a Pacers win. Kings won. Either way helped the Blazers.
Spurs @ Blazers: This is a MUST lose game for the Blazers. Otherwise they will be 3 wins ahead of either SAC or IND, and SAN would pass them in the Lottery rankings. Blazers lost.

All in all, a very good night for Blazer ping pong balls.

 

May I ask who would you like the Blazers to draft?

I personally want them to take Smith if we get a high enough pick and then if possible also get Duren. Those two are the top of my board. I am higher on Duren than many, but I really like him. I also like Banchero as well as Keegan Murray. Jovic intrigues me, but that would have to be if none of the aforementioned Smith, Banchero, Duren, and Murray are available with say the Pelicans pick. I am drafting to a huge degree on size. I just think this team needs guys, preferably on cheap contracts, who are 6'8" and above. Those are also the most expensive contracts for veteran players.

 

Yeah I think the best case scenario is that we land high enough to draft Smith or Holmgren with our own pick and draft Duren with the NOP pick. I think drafting two of the three bigs would transform our frontcourt for the next decade.

I think I’d rather have Smith because I’m not exactly convinced Holmgren will be a 4, but I’m happy with either guy. You can find a cheap third string big that can shoot like Hartenstein to round out the bigs. Then next years PF/C are:

Smith/Watford/Brown III
Nurkic/Duren/Hartenstein

 

I've actually been trying to process that and I kind of change my mind from day to day because I usually believe you draft BPA and let things work out after that. However, this year the Blazers have a very specific need for a PF and a general need for shooters ... so if Ivey was the BPA at their pick, I'd probably try to pull a Kevin Pritchard and deal that pick for a pick a couple of slots down.

After watching Duren a couple of times late in the season, my opinion on him has dropped. I love what he could be. I just have a lot of questions about his ability to get there. He doesn't seem to even try to do a lot of the little things well. He's so far away fundamentally from being a contributor on a good NBA team and I think the odds of him reaching his potential are slim.

Honestly, I think there are a couple of international prospects that are as good that we could get in the second round.

Anyway, to answer your question ...

1. Smith
2. Sharpe
3. Banchero (awfully close between Smith and Banchero for me; 5 minutes from now I could go Banchero at 2 but I think he has star ceiling at a position of need while Sharpe has superstar ceiling at a quality of need)
4. Mathurin
5. Murray
6. Griffin
7. Chet (I just can't watch him play and not think of Shawn Bradley or Zach Collins; I think him and Portland might be a worse match than him in other places because the pressure and expectations put on him by the Pacific Northwest fanbase are unrealistic).

From there, I think we get into the realm of guys like Sochan, Koloko, Eason, and Tshiebwe who I don't think are lottery values or are later in the lottery than the Blazers would be picking, at least.

Ivey gets high on this list only if the Blazers trade Ant or Dame. I think Ivey is a superstar-potential player but at a position where the Blazers are so set right now.

 

Portland is in 7th right now....I don't think they will move ahead of either Sacramento or Indiana. Those teams are tanking quite well and have a lead

 

Thats okay, we still have a decent chance to get into the top 4

 

Not so fast my friend….

You need to believe in the tank harder

 

Gonna do tiers.

1. Paolo
2. Ivey
3. Smith

4. Chet

5. Davis

6. Mathurin
7. Murray

Paolo/Ivey/Smith neck and neck for me, slight edge to Paolo/Ivey this week.

could change, but i'm pretty comfortable with this for now.

I have no idea what to rely on to value Sharpe higher than any of these guys.

 

I'll give you my tiers. If Cronin is GM and we are going to build around Dame:

1. Jabari
2. Paolo

Anything other than those two and we trade the pick(s) for someone at our position of greatest need and give Dame the best chance to win next season.

If a new GM is in place I really like your tiers and might include Sharpe and Jovic with Mathurin and Murray... that's if that new GM does the cold blooded and sensible thing that I wouldn't and moves Dame for a young stud and draft considerations. If any GM wants to build around Dame and keep Nurk then I don't think that they should look to draft anyone besides Paola and Jabari.

 

I think Keegan Murray could have the quickest impact of the 1-7 above.

 

Just found out Sochan is English! So I fully endorse this prediction from the Ringer:

 

Your comp for Paolo is Julius Randle and you have him ranked #1? This must truly be the shittiest draft in two decades.

 

Randle was an all nba player last yr. Comps are more about how they play on the court, not necessarily the projections for their career. I also said he plays like Mike Beasley who was a bust cuz he didnt have his head screwed on right. Doesnt mean i think Paolo willl similarly end up like him.

 

Yeah, I have a feeling he will be one of those players every team will hate, except the team he is on.
He needs to be considered for sure. He is bigger than I thought at 230 lbs and a 7' wing. Still pretty young and raw offensively, but he
reminds me of Ariza with an extra 15 lbs. The key is how good can he get with his 3 pt shot. His D is pretty damn good for his age.

 

And Jamaal Magloire was an all-star one year.

 

Paola reminds me of Alaa Abdnelnaby

 

Except Paola has good range. Potential to be a great outside shooter. He is definitely in my top 2

 

That’s what everybody thought Obi Toppin was gonna do. Their game to me are very similar.