Kevin Pelton (ESPN insider): Blazers projected 42-40

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by PtldPlatypus, Aug 3, 2018.

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  1. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...totals-playoff-standings-all-30-teams-2018-19

    8. Portland Trail Blazers
    Projected wins:     42.0

    The Blazers' offseason makeover of their bench, along with regression to the mean, is responsible for a projected drop from last season's 49 wins -- good for third in the West. Seth Curry (projected minus-1.4 RPM) doesn't rate as well as Napier, while Davis' departure means more minutes for second-year center Zach Collins (minus-1.9).​

    Pelton's projected conference standings are as follows:

    - West - - East
    1. GSW - 1. TOR
    2. UTA - 2. BOS
    3. HOU - 3. PHI
    4. DEN - 4. IND
    5. MIN - 5. MIL
    6. OKC - 6. MIA
    7. NOP - 7. WAS
    8. POR - 8. DET
    9. LAL - 9. CHA
    10. SAS- 10. BRK
    11. LAC- 11. ORL
    12. MEM- 12. CLE
    13. DAL- 13. NYK
    14. PHX- 14. CHI
    15. SAC- 15. ATL
     
    PtldPlatypus, Aug 3, 2018
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  2. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    I don't think the NBA allows LeBron to not make the playoffs.
     
    Natebishop3, Aug 3, 2018
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  3. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Pelton kind of addresses that too, says that in his projection, Lebron and other Lakers' RPM projection took a big hit because they're changing teams, but if Lebron's RPM only drops a little bit instead of a ton, the Lakers would be projected ahead of the Blazers.
     
    PtldPlatypus, Aug 3, 2018
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  4. DaLincolnJones

    DaLincolnJones Well-Known Member

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    As we sit now, I have a hard time believing we make the playoffs.
     
    DaLincolnJones, Aug 3, 2018
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  5. BBert

    BBert Weasels Ripped My Flesh

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    I wonder how many wins over projected the Blazers have had over each of the past five or six years? And what the average is?

    I'm going to say six is a reasonable number. So, 48 wins?

    :cheers:
     
    BBert, Aug 3, 2018
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  6. Labinot41

    Labinot41 Well-Known Member

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    Me to
     
    Labinot41, Aug 3, 2018
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  7. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    Except that year Neil said with Aminu at the 4 were a 50+ win team...
     
    TorturedBlazerFan, Aug 3, 2018
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  8. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    UTA above HOU, DEN at 4, and no LAL stick out like sore thumbs. His formula is largely based on point differentials, iirc, so this isn't all that surprising.

    Wonder where he had us this time last year. And how does he rate rookies? Ayton and Luka will have an impact.
     
    illmatic99, Aug 3, 2018
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  9. BBert

    BBert Weasels Ripped My Flesh

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    Ha, Neil's projections don't count ;)
     
    BBert, Aug 3, 2018
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  10. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Neither to @KingSpeed's or @HCP's.

    BNM
     
    Boob-No-More, Aug 3, 2018
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  11. BBert

    BBert Weasels Ripped My Flesh

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    Yeah I was thinking more Vegas and guys like Pelton

    #nohomers
     
    BBert, Aug 3, 2018
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  12. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

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    S2 Annual Prediction thread will go up prior to the first preseason game on Sept. 29th.
    Final predictions will be cut off at tip off of game one of the regular season.
     
    Orion Bailey, Aug 3, 2018
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  13. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    He projects Doncic as a -0.8 RPM, which he says is 4th best amongst rookie projections. Nothing in the article about Ayton, but does say that he has Phoenix moving up only to 27th in offensive rating (from 30th), so he's apparently not projecting a huge impact.
     
    PtldPlatypus, Aug 3, 2018
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  14. BigGameDamian

    BigGameDamian Well-Known Member

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    Neil's looking to make a big shake up come trade deadline.
     
    BigGameDamian, Aug 3, 2018
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  15. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    Anyone have what his predictions were last year?
     
    TorturedBlazerFan, Aug 3, 2018
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  16. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    I wonder if NO sends other GM’s emails with links to the trade machine, and “PLEASE”, at the end of the email...
     
    TorturedBlazerFan, Aug 3, 2018
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  17. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...otals-standings-every-nba-team-2017-18-season

    - West - - East
    1. GSW - 1. BOS
    2. HOU - 2. CLE
    3. SAS - 3. WAS
    4. MIN - 4. MIL
    5. OKC - 5. CHA
    6. LAC - 6. TOR
    7. DEN - 7. MIA
    8. UTA - 8. DET
    9. NOP - 9. PHI
    10. POR- 10. ORL
    11. DAL- 11. IND
    12. MEM- 12. NYK
    13. LAL- 13. BRK
    14. PHX- 14. CHI
    15. SAC- 15. ATL
     
    PtldPlatypus, Aug 3, 2018
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  18. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    The east is kind of a disaster... The west in general is harder to “grade”, LAC traded Blake and there were a ton of injuries, but I think he basically got the right 10 (that we all knew), just it was mixed up a lot more.
     
    TorturedBlazerFan, Aug 3, 2018
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  19. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    As Dame sits right now, he says bullshit.
     
    e_blazer, Aug 3, 2018
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  20. DaLincolnJones

    DaLincolnJones Well-Known Member

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    Nice to know you and Dame are so tight..

    Looks t me like the West got a lot better, and our roster took a turn for the worse. With the youth we will have to rely upon, it is going to be a tough year.
     
    DaLincolnJones, Aug 3, 2018
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