I never did read that article but it sounds like it has a lot of truth. The one thing is though I think you can learn to be a good enough passing PG to help your team get to the finals. I'm not sure we want Bayless to turn into the next Kidd. I have my doubts Kidd and Roy would be that good together. I could see both wanting the ball in the 4th qtr. I think many of the NBA champions in the last 10-15 years didn't have a great passing PG. I still think Bayless and Roy can be a great backcourt because together they have almost everything you would need to win: ball handing, defense, shooting, driving to the basket and clutch play in the 4th qtr.
I wholeheartedly agree with graybeard about Conley. I think Pritchard and the scouts view players differently than all of us. And this isn't to say that Conley's struggles the past two seasons don't enter their equations, but they're only a chapter of who they are and not the entire book. I've always had the impression that the Blazers were high on Conley. High on his true-playmaking abilities, speed, and his personality. I also believe that facilitators struggle on poorly built teams. I don't think Memphis provides him the players or style of play that can help him succeed. Nor do I feel that Memphis is committed to playing teamball, another aspect that would help Conley. Reminds me of the situation Frye was in his last year in NY. Everyone dogged this move. I, for one, thought it was brilliant. Frye was in a bad situation, which didn't allow him to play his type of game. He struggled. He comes here and, in a very nurturing way, was brought into the fold and given a role that he could succeed with. He was surrounded by positive influences. Bam. He shows everyone what he can do. We're solely tracking stats. Pritchard is looking at the mental make-up of a player and so many other factors. Much like Frye, Conley may need to be around positive personalities, in a system that is much more structured, so that he can succeed.
I do not know of many skilled top-players that were as ineffective shooting and became much better. Given that Conley was considered one of the top-freshmen college players with a lot of top-level basketball experience - I doubt he will ever become a great shooter - I am not saying that he can not - but it is very unlikely. Again - we have shown that with Oden and Cook (a dominant big and an NBA level talent) on the team - Conley was able to get 6 APG in college where Bayless, playing with no real NBA level talent was getting 4 APG while scoring close to 20PPG (vs. 11 for Conley). I am not certain that Conley is a world class distributor compared to Bayless - and this is the only area where he is arguably a better prospect than Bayless - an area of less importance next to Brandon Roy. If I came and said that Bayless would be a better prospect than Derrick Rose - it would be clear homerism. Saying the same about Bayless vs. Conley, especially give the kind of team we consider fot for - is far from it. Bayless is a better prospect than Conley, even more so when you consider team fit.
Damn Crim, who was that? Was it the guy who used to be a regular poster with us after the migration from O'live, you know, the contract and salary cap expert that has his own website now. What the hell was his name? I'm having an Alzheimers moment right now. He has a FAQ website about NBA stuff.
You mean, someone who wins their cases because of the ineptitude of the opposition? Incidentally, you just committed something called the Fallacy of the appeal to ignorance. Look it up.
Ya, that's him, Storyteller. Damn I'd like to re-read that post. I'm not sure it was him, but it sounds like something he'd do. If it wasn't him, maybe he remembers who did the legwork on that thread.
No, someone who is twisting obvious truth enough to make is seem implausible. A good lawyer can argue that up is down, blue is yellow, and make a very believable case.... doesn't make it true. You were trying to make the case that we blazer fans are not biased... which is ridiculous, that's why we're fans.
Couple of thoughts: 1) If you're going to include Daequan Cook as an "NBA Level Talent", then you should probably include Chase Budinger, who's been projected as a low lottery pick each of the last two years (compare with Cook @ 21). 2) OSU had 6 players averaging 8ppg with Conley at the helm (15, 11, 10, 10, 8, 8), and had a 73ppg offense. Arizona had 5, with Bayless, Budinger and Wise being very top-heavy (and a 75ppg offense). 3) KP has said that Bayless's biggest problem isn't his talent, his shot, his defense. It's that he doesn't know how to play with great players. Conley doesn't have that problem...he's been playing (and winning) with Greg for years. Am I intrigued with Conley? Yeah, I actually am. Would I give up Sergio for him? Maybe, but probably not. Bayless? Seems extraneous to me right now, though I hope if he stays he gets better. I don't think he'll magically turn into Ron Harper or Derek Fisher anytime soon...which means he'll be behind Roy and Rudy (and whoever the starting PG is). I think you're 3 years away from seeing how good Conley will be. Same with Bayless. But based on their games, and what we've seen over the last few years of them, I like Conley more for this team. PS: How long has Devin Harris been in the league??
Once again, you're overgeneralizing. Unless you're referring to yourself with the royal "we". This reminds me of the Al Franken line about the difference between a conservative's and a liberal's love for their country: a conservative thinks his/her country is mommy and mommy can do no wrong, but a liberal loves like an adult and can recognize flaws while still loving. Everybody's biased. Sometimes being a fan can make you biased against your team: you're so invested in them winning that their failings hurt you personally (like one of those horrible parents who gets on their kid when he or she loses).
There's no speculating about it, the majority of Memphis boards that I've browsed are WAY down on Conley, and most are ready to dump him. That doesn't make Memphis fans experts on Conley's potential, but it is a way to take an unscientific "pulse" and get a feel for what people think, from people who actually watch him. Conley's piss poor numbers do nothing but back up that general impression. As for people around here being excited about Bayless and his potential, that's because he's still mystery meat and we have no idea how good or bad he is as an NBA player -- comparing Conley and Bayless is apples and oranges. The only legitimate comparison I can see between Memphis fans and Portland fans and their opinions on their young point guards is the comparison between Conley and Sergio.
Good point. Forgot about him. I still say that a team with Bayless and Budlinger does not equal in talent a team that had Cook and Greg freaking Oden on the roster - so I still think that GB's claim that Conley have done a lot more in college than Bayless based on team-play is NOT a big deal. FWIW - I think there is a reason Budlinger pulled out of the last 2 drafts - because he never was projected to go much higher than Cook - so I doubt he is a much better prospect than Cook in the eyes of most teams. This, I think, is actually something that is more in favor of Bayless, to be honest. If Conley knows how to play next to good players - why has he been so ineffective in the NBA next to Gay, Mayo and Gasol Jr.? It is pretty clear that talent is not a problem on this team - and yet he has not been able to contribute next to them or lead them to great success. If there is an adjustment that could be made - it seems to me that Bayless learning to play next to other great players is much more likely than Conley learning to become a great shooter at the NBA level when he never was in high-school, college or the NBA so far.
Hang on...I didn't say Conley's a "Better Prospect"--I said "I like him more for this team". Here's why: First, I just haven't seen Bayless play much. That's ignorance on my part, and I'm trying not to bias against him b/c of that, but the observations I have are from the NCAA tourney game and summer league and preseason. For Conley I've seen more tourney games, maybe 5 or so Grizzly games on LeaguePass last year. Second, it's in style of play. Bayless may be a defensive beast, and I'd love to see it. But I just haven't (yet). Conley is a pass-first guy that can break down a defense and has been playing Robin to Oden's Batman his whole life. Bayless seems to me to be a shoot-first guy that can also break down a defense, but I can't get past the fact that if he was everything we think he is, he'd be getting minutes....right?? Maybe another way of putting it is this; I see Bayless as much closer to Raja Bell than Ron Harper. And he may be great someday. But Raja Bell wouldn't get off the bench with our SG situation. So it's a risk/reward thing for me much more than "pure talent" And I just brought up Harris b/c he's a guy who didn't blossom until his 5th year. IIRC, his first 30-pt game was last month. Then he puts up a 47/7/8. Yikes.
Of all players that play 25 minutes or more a game, Conley is ranked 11th in the league in Assist Ratio. Assist Ratio is the percentage of a player’s possessions that ends in an assist. Assist Ratio = (Assists x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers]
I wouldn't use Devin Harris as a comparable example. His raw statistics were held down by lack of minutes on a generally talented team. His PER numbers (which are more dependent on per-minute efficiency) showed Harris to be a very good player. His lowest PER (which came as a rookie) was 14.7, which meant he was about the caliber of a league-average starter. His PERs were between 16.0 and 17.5 in his next three years (15.0 PER is average starter, 20.0+ PER is generally All-Star caliber). This season, though, he's taken off and shot to star/superstar level. It's such a huge increase, I'm not convinced he can keep it up long-term. But he was always a quality player and was improving toward stardom. Conley has had PERs of 12.6 last year and 11.8 this year. Not hideous, but not all that promising.
Conley is not a consistent shooter. His shooting numbers look worse than he is though. He is improving. His FG% is now above 40% and is matching his rookie season percentage at 43%. He has improved his FT% from 73% to 76%. His TS% is on par with the following players: - Sergio Rodriguez - Derek Fisher - Baron Davis - Rodney Stuckey - Luke Ridnour - Andre Miller - Jordan Farmar The last 5 games, he's shot 19/31 FGs, 5/7 3-pt FGs, and 1/1 FTs. He is getting better. Young players require patience.
