LA gone before or on draft day

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Charcoal Filtered, Jun 23, 2013.

  1. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    If you don't know how you'd compare 2 top 4 picks to an ~16M in additional cap space, then you're right--we're not on remotely the same level of discussion. But you're semantically right--we could get a trade exception, or ~16M in additional cap space.

    You're buying into something worse than fear---hope. Not logic. You think that dropping the number of available trade partners and time left before the player can leave in FA INCREASES trade value? Do an analysis of the last decade of all-stars as they neared UFA. Look at the ones who left to give their teams the gift of cap space, the ones who were traded with more than a year left, the ones who were traded with less than a year left, and the ones who just re-signed with their old teams. Then you can lecture me all you want on logic vs. fear, if you still feel so led.

    And don't discount pizza guys.
     
  2. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    You mean, like LeBron?
     
  3. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    Hell, look at this year. Do think Dwight's staying in LAL? Did you think CP3 was staying in LAC if he didn't get to pick his coach? Is Josh Smith staying in ATL? He's not even an all-star, but a max-ish player.
     
  4. RR7

    RR7 Well-Known Member

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    sorry, outside of lebron and bosh, my mistake, who are all the guys who left?
     
  5. Blaze01

    Blaze01 JBB JustBBall Member

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    That is what an inordinate amount of posters on this board cling too, unfortunately....

    In a perfect world you would like to keep LA and add another significant (all star quality piece) to this team...but I don't see that happening this summer...not with names like Splitter\Gortat\Pekovic...or bench additions like Allen, decent players but enough to propel this team into anything more than a 1st round and out team? I don't think so....and that is why LA will likely opt to leave when his contract is up...1st round and out just isn't good enough, straight from his lips...and this team hasn't even reached that level yet....

    http://www.blazersedge.com/2013/6/2...cus-aldridge-is-a-candidate-for-a-draft-trade

    Niether Matthews or Batum have shown that they can step up in a playoff situation either.....There is a LARGE difference b\t beating a high quality team during the season and beating them in a playoff series...Even with Roy at his best, which was far better than any other player on this roster IMO...POR still wasn't good enough to advance.....

    If the goal is just making the playoffs and competing in a series, yeah they can possibly reach that next year with some of these additions, but transforming into a legitmate playoff contender? I do not see that happening...
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2013
  6. RR7

    RR7 Well-Known Member

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    There's hope on both sides, don't paint it like it's only those hoping LMA doesn't leave. You HOPE that when we trade him, we find a way to improve as a team. You HOPE that we get a player, or group of players that can be better than he is. You HOPE we can tank to get a true superstar next season. You HOPE that a collection of assets is better than one very good piece.
     
  7. RR7

    RR7 Well-Known Member

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    And what is the trend of stars leaving in the last 10 years? Outside of LEBRON(sorry) and Bosh? I'm not interested in speculating on where guys go THIS offseason. That doesn't at all show a trend.
     
  8. chris_in_pdx

    chris_in_pdx OLD MAN

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    Once you realize that the Blazers as currently built are struggling to fight for a playoff spot in the West, everyone not named Lillard is expendable. The name of the NBA game is winning, and if you aren't going to win with the players you got, you go get new ones. LA will never have a higher value than right now, and he sure as hell isn't the leader that the Blazers need to kick them to "the next level". Brandon Roy may have been that player, but we saw how that worked out. Lillard might be as well. But LaMarcus isn't. Yes, he's an All-Star. Yes he puts up numbers. But he's not a WINNER. He doesn't have that fire in his gut, that killer instinct in his eye that says "I'm winning this fucking basketball game and there's nothing you can do about it".

    I'm not saying trading him will bring in a player of his caliber, but it will command a price for the team that trades for him... good role players, draft picks, etc. And the Blazers can build up from Lillard, Leonard, Batum, Matthews, along with this year's draft pick and whomever comes in via the trade.

    Swing for the fences.
     
  9. blazerboy30

    blazerboy30 Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, I must have missed where we can trade LMA for two future top 4 picks. Can you point me to where that was mentioned?

    If $16M in cap space is "absolutely worthless", then why would a team be able to trade for a good player with that absolutely worthless cap space?

    It's amazing that you've told yourself so many times that he's leaving that you actually think it is a fact.

    What's worse is that you have managed to convince yourself that those of us who admit we don't have insider, legit, GM knowledge of LMA's conversations and admit that we really don't know what he'll do, are the ones that are being illogical.

    Another hilarious part is where you claim others are "buying into hope" but you're pushing to move an all-star for draft picks. Draft picks are basically the definition of "hope".

    But yeah, I'm the one buying into hope and not logic. Oh my.


    Strawman after strawman.

    You're making the claim. You back it up by doing the study and provide the data.

    It's exactly what you're doing.

    - You're making an assumption without any inside information
    - You're convincing yourself that your assumption is "100% correct"
    - You're valuing $16M in cap space as "absolutely nothing", but still think that we can trade him to a team that has $16M of that worthless cap space.
    - You're assuming that the number of available trading partners will drop in the next 6 months or year
    - You want to trade every player if "there is any possible chance they will leave in 2 years"

    I hope this isn't how you approach investing in real life.
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2013
  10. blue9

    blue9 Well-Known Member

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    And we need to remember that even just making the Playoffs is going to require a significant improvement - vaulting THREE teams just to get the #8 spot. Too many people seem to take it for granted that we'll make that leap. And even though I have agreed that it's a very real possibility, that's all it is - a POSSIBILITY. We don't have a lot to work with, so moving up 3 spots might be asking too much.
    We'd all like to think that with Kobe out for the year that we'll finish ahead of LAL - but given that they're the Lakers and get trades done, we can't say for certain that we will. But for the sake of the argument we'll just say that we pass them. One down.
    The next most obvious teams are UTH and DAL. DAL is angling for Howard and won't be willing to throw another season of Dirk's career in the toilet. They already finished better than us - leaping them will be tough. 20/80 for leaping them? UTH is going to make some pretty significant changes this summer. They were a fairly poorly balanced team last season and you have to figure they'll have better balance going into next season. But what moves will they make? Will it translate right away, or are they looking a couple years down the road? 50/50 on leaping Utah?
    DEN is another team that's up in the air. But, they were SIGNIFICANTLY better than us this past season. We have to both be significantly better ourselves, and hope that they are significantly worse. That's a lot to ask.
    We shouldn't just fall into the trap of expecting a C to put us into the Playoffs.
     
  11. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    What?
     
  12. ABM

    ABM Happily Married In Music City, USA!

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    You NEVER say "What?" to Master Brian, dude. Ever!!
     
  13. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    I'm pretty sure he meant LeBron, since Wade has always been in Miami.
     
  14. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    All-Stars and what their teams got for them up to when they reached UFA:
    Bottom line up front:
    3 of 35 signed as UFAs with the team they were with going into UFA: Wade, Parker, Joe Johnson.
    3 of 35 signed extensions before they went to UFA: Z-bo, Gasol, Jameer
    5 of 35 were traded immediately prior to UFA, whether forced or not: Deron, Melo, Howard, Marion, CP3
    1 of 35 was a UFA S&T (Lee)
    2 of 35 retired as UFAs (Yao, Wally)
    21 of 35 left for nothing but cap space and/or 2nds/trade exceptions (everyone else)

    So, going back to the 1999 draft (only a 6 year+ sample size), less than 10% of UFAs who make it to UFA sign with their old team. Another 10% sign extensions (which can now only happen in last year of the deal). 5 were traded (6 if you count Lee's S&T) so the old team got something for them. But 23 of 35 All-Stars who hit FA gave their old team nothing in return but maybe a 2nd rounder and trade exception/cap space.

    2005: (0/4 with original team. 2 forced trades before UFA, 1 will leave for nothing, 1 left via UFA S&T)
    Deron (not with UTH--forced trade before UFA)
    CP3 (not with NOH--forced trade before UFA)
    Bynum (not with LAL--traded before UFA. PHI will probably lose him via UFA for nothing)
    Lee (not with NYK--left via UFA S&T)

    2004: (1 of 3 still with team, Deng & Harris still not UFA. 1 traded, 1 left for nothing)
    Howard (not with ORL--demanded trade before UFA)
    Harris (not with DAL--traded for Jason Kidd while on rookie deal. Still not UFA)
    **Deng (still with CHI--human trade rumor, and hasn't become UFA yet)
    Iguodala (not with PHI--left DEN via UFA for nothing)
    Jameer (still with ORL--signed extension)

    2003: (1 for 7--and the only one is Wade. Mo still isn't UFA. 1 traded, 5 left for nothing )
    LeBron (not with CLE--left in UFA for nothing)
    Melo (not with DEN--demanded trade)
    Wade (with MIA--resigned with Superfriends)
    Bosh (not with TOR--left in UFA for nothing)
    Kaman (not with LAC--traded before UFA then left NOH for nothing )
    West (not with NOH--left as UFA for nothing)
    Howard (not with DAL--traded before UFA and left WAS via UFA for nothing)
    Mo Williams (not with UTH--still hasn't become UFA)

    2002 (0/3, though Yao probably would have re-signed. 3 left for nothing)
    Yao (retired before UFA)
    Amare(not with PHX--left via UFA for nothing)
    Butler (not with MIA--traded for Shaq on rookie deal. Left DAL for nothing)
    Boozer (not with CLE--left via cheati-I mean, UFA)

    2001: (2/7 resigned. 2 signed extensions before UFA, 3 left for nothing)
    Chandler (not with CHI--traded after signing post-rookie extension. Left DAL via UFA)
    Gasol (not with MEM--traded before UFA, signed extension)
    Joe Johnson (resigned with ATL as UFA)
    Z-Bo (not with POR--traded, signed extension before UFA)
    Parker (still with Spurs)
    Okur (not with Pistons--Left via UFA)
    Arenas (not with GSW--left via UFA)

    2000: (0/3. All three left for nothing)
    K-Mart (not with NJN--S&Td after rookie contract. Left for China via UFA)
    Magloire( not with CHA--traded before UFA. Left POR via UFA)
    Redd (not with MIL--left via UFA)

    1999: (1 demanded trade. 6 left for nothing. 1 retired, for nothing.)
    Brand (not with CHI--traded on rookie deal. Left LAC via UFA for nothing)
    Franchise (not with VAN--traded before UFA. Left NYK via UFA for nothing)
    Baron (not with CHA--traded before UFA. Left GSW via UFA for nothing)
    Wally World (not with MIN--traded before UFA. Retired while UFA)
    Rip (not with WAS--traded before UFA. Left via waivers for nothing)
    Marion (not with PHX--demanded trade before UFA.)
    Artest (not with CHI--traded before UFA. Left HOU via UFA for nothing)
    Kirilenko (not with UTH--demanded trade, but left for nothing)
     
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  15. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    I don't think any of us who are hoping that LMA remains a Blazer are expecting that a C puts us into the playoffs. A C plus a backup PG and a decent vet role player or two on minimum contracts puts us into the hunt for the 4-8 spots and that's about it. I think it takes one more off-season to get a good bench player with the MLE and maybe a trade to put the Blazers into the good category. As far as the competition goes, IMO the next 6-8 teams below the Thunder, Clippers, Spurs and Grizzlies are about on the same playing field. Injuries will have more to do with who gets in among that group than roster moves will.
     
  16. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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    I’m not in favor of trading LaMarcus away right now unless the primary asset is more likely than not an allstar. This years #1 pick; in a historically horrible draft isn’t enough. Could LaMarcus leave in 2 years? Sure, there is a chance of it. But even if he intends to leave today players attitudes change on a whim. Kobe Bryant demanded a trade from the Lakers then they won a title a year later. Maybe Lamarcus is encouraged by the direction of our team in a year. Maybe the Texas teams don’t have any cap room and he stays here as option B.

    I think its stupid to make a desperate move out of fear of a player leaving for nothing. If LaMarcus does leave for “nothing” we reduce our payroll by the size of a max contract. So the only thing we lose is the value LaMarcus provides above and beyond a max contract. Yes that would be horrible if it was an MVP level superstar but LaMarcus is not at that level. Phoenix lost Amare Stoudamire for “nothing” when NY gave him that max contract. Utah lost Carlos Boozer for "nothing" when he signed that overpaid deal with Chicago. The Clippers lost Elton Brand for "nothing" when he signed a massive contract with Philly. Losing a 30 year old all-star for "nothing" is a gamble that either team can win.
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2013
  17. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    Slow day in wherever-the-heck-you-are, Brian? ;)
     
  18. DaLincolnJones

    DaLincolnJones Well-Known Member

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    pfft..vague notion..(I kid)

    Those are pretty damning facts
     
  19. BigGameDamian

    BigGameDamian Well-Known Member

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  20. Fez Hammersticks

    Fez Hammersticks スーパーバッド Zero Cool

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    BGD...

    Just quit.
     

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