Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by illmatic99, Aug 27, 2021.
just fyi, nance has never played in more than 67 games in a season in his career.
For what it's worth, last year his team didn't play 70 and this year they only played 72.
of which he played in only 35. i hope he has a breakthrough year, but he does seem to get unlucky w/ injuries.
Yeah I guess my point isn't that he's injury prone it's just harder to judge players off games played given the last two seasons. But that was probably obvious.
hey guys, not to be a dick but can you guys move this to the nance thread? Itll make it easier on me when i go to tally things up.
The Blazers Are Finally Embracing Larry Nance Jr.’s Many Skills
I’m loving Nance’s play of late! He should be starting PF in my opinion.
most of that is good analysis
but the idea that Nance is the answer if a team doubles and traps Dame is as silly as the idea that Evan Turner was the answer. The only elite player on the team passing to a role player out of traps doesn't solve that riddle. The goal of the traps is to get the ball out of Dame's hands because teams don't believe other Blazers can consistently beat the defense. Dame's been trapped aggressively in most playoff series. That's put the ball in CJ's hands, or Turner's hands, or Napier's hands, or Nurkic's hands or Melo's hands...and the Blazers have kept losing. Adding Nance to that list isn't changing the equation
disagree I think what we’ve missed as much as anything is movement. Nance, Powell and Nas never stop with effort so when other teams double they have to scramble to find our guys. In the past we were extremely predictable. Guys in each corner maybe a center in middle.
now we have guys Who are constantly moving it will make a difference. Also CJ has thrown two lobs in last couple games that’s two more than I’ve seen him throw in 2 years.
I disagree. First of all, when the ball ended up in CJ's hands in the 2019 Denver series, he carried us to our first WCF in 19 years. People like to write that off since we lost in the WCF but winning a second round series is a big time accomplishment and we did it in the hardest circumstances. Second of all, Nance isn't CJ, Turner, Napier, Nurk, or Melo. He's more of a Draymond Green. And everyone knows Dame would play well with him. Same with Nance Jr. We just haven't seen it enough but when we have, it has been good.
P.S. Ben Simmons would be even better at this than Nance so if we can get him for CJ and 3 picks, then we should fucking do it.
Is this really true though? Simmons is the better passer, but I wonder....
Both guys can set really good screens, so that's not the issue.
In a scenario where Simmons gets the ball dumped to him because of the double on Dame, the obvious move for the defense is to let Simmons shoot in space, or drive and foul him at the rim and make him shoot free throws. Don't let Simmons pass. Absolutely do NOT let him pass. Recover a little slower on Dame to ensure he's not given the ball back.
When Nance gets that same pass, defenses have nothing but bad options. Recover slowly on Dame and leave Nance wide open? He's pretty good at 17 footers, and can even hit an open three at 37%. That's a bad idea. Play him for the pass and he will take it strong to the rack, and although not a great free throw shooter he's not a complete choker like Simmons. Play him tightly and because there are 2 guys on Dame, there will be somebody wide open that he absolutely will find most of the time.
Don't get me wrong. Simmons is a way, way better player because he's one of the best defenders in the league. Nance hustles and is good at defense, but he's nowhere near Ben's level. And Nance isn't nearly the passer or ball handler.
But just in terms of Dame/Simmons on the pick and roll or Dame/Nance, Nance just offers so many more options. Simmons mostly does one thing at an elite level in that situation--pass. Especially when the playoffs roll around and teams have a lot of time to prepare, and games get tight and Simmons may be inclined to choke, I think Nance is the better option to run the pick and roll with Dame.
Honestly, I think the doubles on Dame aren't going to be as hard on Dame with Nance setting the pick. Defenses are just going to give up too much to the rest of our offense if you just focus on shutting Dame down.
All that said, I'm still a huge fan of acquiring Simmons for CJ. I'd give up Nance in a heartbeat if that helped seal the deal. But I gotta admit I'd like to see Nance get more opportunities with Dame to see how this develops.
nance is much taller than everyone you listed but nurk and melo Nd neither of those guys cant slash to the hole.
To compare nances skills getting a pass out of the trap to melo, napier, cj?
nance is nothing like those players.
this comparison doesn't make sense to me…
the key is Nance knows where to be to get that pass and be effective. The others didn't.
Pretty clear to the eye test for me.
Melo was never under the basket waiting for a dunk.
Might have to pick up his rookie card too
Denver didn't double & trap Dame like most teams have because they didn't have much perimeter length. They put their best defenders on him, and they didn't use drop coverage; but it wasn't the 'full-scale-stop-Dame defenses' that have curb-stomped Portland in the playoffs, over and over. Dame's usage rate was normal. And it's revisionist to say CJ "carried" Portland to the series win. He did have a great game 7. But in the first 6 games of the series, Dame had 163 points on 133 shots; CJ had 148 points on 141 shots. In other words, Dame had scored 15 more points on 8 fewer shots prior to game 7
for the series, even after game 7; CJ had a TS% of .530 while Dame was at .528. CJ scored 9 more points but needed 20 more shots to do so. Dame scored 1.21 points/shot; CJ only scored 1.12 points shot. So, to be accurate, CJ "carried" Portland to a game 7 win. But there wouldn't have been a game 7 if not for Dame AND, Rodney Hood
and as you mentioned, CJ had the perfect opportunity to 'prove' his value...to 'prove' his game 7 was no fluke, in the next series against the Warriors. Unlike Denver, the Warriors did use the 'full-scale-stop-Dame defense' that has been the Blazer downfall. As usual, CJ drew the weaker defenders on the Warriors while Dame was tag-teamed by the best. Dame actually didn't do that bad; he had a TS% .546 while averaging 1.27 points/shot. Meanwhile CJ had a TS% of .481 while averaging 1.05 points/shot. Dame also averaged 8.5 assists that series. He did a decent job against a defense totally focused on him. But he didn't get any support
but more than that is that CJ has been there every single time a playoff opponent has used the blitz-Dame game plan. He was there when Memphis did it; when the Warriors did it 3 times; when the Pels did it; and when the Lakers did it. CJ was front & center in those 6 playoff series when Portland was posting a record of 3-24. That's right, the Blazers have gone 3-24 in the playoffs against those stop-Dame defenses. 6 different versions of the Blazers have all been curb-stomped if Dame's part of the equation is limited
so, CJ isn't the answer, and I'm extremely skeptical that Nance is the key to unlocking this riddle. He's not PG13 or Butler or Kawhi.
I don't quite agree with this. First of all, Simmons is great at attacking the basket. Sure, you can foul him--but are you going to do that all game long from the first possession of the first quarter? Regardless of what percentage Simmons shoots those free throws, that's a lot of individual and team fouls every quarter. That doesn't seem sustainable.
And even at the end of a game, all Simmons has to do to not really make the strategy pay off is hit about half his free throws. 1 point per possession isn't incredible offense, but it's solid, especially in crunch time when defenses tend to dial in harder and offensive efficiency goes down. Until last year's flame out performance, he's more than met that standard in the playoffs. If you think he'll always play like his worst ever moment, then yeah, you pass on Simmons. But if you think last year's playoffs was a one-off and he'll more likely be like every season and post-season before that, I think he fits really well into that aspect of Draymond Green's game--getting the ball after a double team on the superstar and leading a four-on-three in the halfcourt.
Doc and the Clippers were extremely effective trapping Dame. This was true to start the 4th of pretty much every Blazer/Clipper game I watched when Doc was there. Doc loved to use taller players like Jordan and Griffin to help out. The exception was when Plumlee took over bringing the ball up the court. Nance can help with the Plumlee role. But it isn't about one guy helping Dame, it is 4 guys helping Dame.
Simmons is a 60% career FT shooter. That's 1.2 points/possession. Utah has the best offense in the NBA this year averaging less than 1.15 points/possession.
1.2 > 1.15
I realize. I was saying that the minimum standard he had to meet to make the strategy work was 50% or so. I didn't give him full credit for his regular season percentage because his playoff percentage is .520 (largely impacted by last year) and people probably consider him "suspect" in the playoffs. But even then, he doesn't have to hit his regular season average to break the strategy.
CJ - Shoot first.
Turner - Can’t shoot.
Napier - ??? 10 min per game Avg..
Nurkic - Can’t shoot, dribble and arguably a pretty poor finisher.
Melo - Shoot first. Shoot second. Dribble then shoot third.
Nance - Pass. Dribble. Shoot. Attack the rim. Not shoot first. And much taller than CJ. Won’t get sticky with the ball.
I would say it is much, much different than passing to Evan Turner or any other player you listed.
Damian’s usage rate is lower against the nuggets than it is the warriors in the playoffs
Avg: 29.88 usg vs nuggets and 30.22 against warriors.
we don’t need a Kawhi, pg13 or butler from nance. We need Boris diaw.
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