4 minutes of garbage time isn't enough to judge his ability. His per 36 PPG is over 25. If he could put up 25 in real 36 minutes, he should be starting somewhere. It would be a rare night he'd be outscored.
Think of Fredette as a JLIII type. He plays the PG position in title only. He's really in there to change the pace of the game, get up 3-point shots and make more than 1/3 of them. Ideally, you don't want him in there for more than 5 minutes at a stretch. Fredette's problem right now is that, if the Bulls want to throw an undersized guard who can shoot the 3-ball into the mix, Augustin can not only hit 3s at over 40%, but also run the offense with some authority. Heck, D.J. can even get to the basket if the defense isn't diligent about getting back. If, as I expect, the Bulls aren't able to hang on to Augustin, a JLIII role may be available for Fredette on the Bulls.
THat's how I see him as well, if anything. Seems like some people think he's more than that or that he should be getting some serious minutes. I'm not seeing it to this point.
I've always thought that maybe the Bulls saw the Jimmer signing as a replacement DJ for next season since they know they can't afford him in FA. With Rose back they won't need a high minutes player, and his shooting could be useful in end of game situations. This would also explain why he chose to come here despite not getting any minutes.
In Fredette's defense, he is one of the few 40+% 3-point shooters who creates most of his 3-pointers off the dribble. In fact, you could make an argument that Jimmer's in the top 5 of players to whom you want to give the ball with little time left and 3 points needed. Jimmer's a one-trick pony, but it's a pretty cool trick.
He's Rory Sparrow, Steve Kerr, etc., on steroids? Those guys made 3pt shots like Jimmer, but didn't get their own shots.
87% of Fredette's shots are jumpers, but only 34% of those shots are assisted. He has a 55% eFG% on those jumpers. I can't think of anyone else who has that sort of shooting profile. No doubt about it, Jimmer's a piece of work.
I think this could be a tragic decision. The Bulls need an actual backup point guard. Jimmer can't really run an offense, right? And if Rose has to miss time again it would be game over.
I agree if Fredette is the #2 PG. I'm assuming that, if Fredette stays, he'll be #3 behind Rose and an experienced backup PG.
Seems people felt the same way about JLIIII, Nate Robinson, et al. Those guys surprised when there was no alternative but play them.
Well, after watching the tourney here are some additional draft observations: 1). I think Julius Randle is going to be okay. His arms aren't as long as you'd like, but he's a better athlete than Brand and Randolph. His other shortcomings can be fixed with repetition (jumpshot, right hand) 2). Doug McDermott is not. He's not an NBA athlete. He might stick as an NBA role player who shoots 3's, but he shouldn't be a lottery pick. 3). Kyle Anderson is going to be okay. He's also slow, but he seems incredibly nimble to me, which is a very underrated physical ability on offense. I'm putting him into the stephen curry/toni kukoc/kevin durant/andre miller class of athlete who can't run very fast or jump very high, but still get by due to coordination and nimbleness. The rest of his game is gravy. 4). Aaron Gordon is overhyped as a lottery pick, but good value in the middle of the first. The Blake Griffin stuff looks ridiculous to me, but I think he has a very high floor as a high-motor defensive role player. I'd like to see the Bulls pick him up with one of their picks if he's available, especially if they'll be moving Taj in a Carmelo trade. 5). It's hard to get excited about Rodney Hood, even though he seems good enough.
If we had a top 5 pick, we'd be drooling over the prospects. Since we don't, we pooh pooh them. I wouldn't draft the injured big man project. I'd take the next MJ/Kobe/Durant guy.
I think he'll measure out as a legit 6'9 with better-than-expected combine numbers. And if that's the case you've gotta think he projects to be a pretty good PF considering that many guys with lesser physical attributes do just fine; Love, Lee, Z-Bo, Boozer, Millsap, etc. I think he could be better on defense than a lot of those guys, but it depends if he's committed to it. Like I've said before, it just seems like even if he doesn't completely "get it" the odds are pretty good that he at least becomes a hollow-stats 20/10 PF a la Z-Bo, Lee, Al Jeff, etc. He seems like a nice kid so I don't think attitude will be an issue but I have no idea how his work ethic is and I don't see anything special in regards to "bball IQ". If he lands in a good situation and/or just "gets it" he can be pretty damn good. Like Cousins as a PF. The top of the draft IS good this year. IMO Embiid, Randle, and Parker all have pretty good shots at being all-stars and potential to be even better than that. Embiid is a great talent and specimen at C, those don't come along often. Wiggins has a much higher chance of being a bust, but at the same time his ceiling is sky high and hes got so much talent that he could still be a good/unique wing player even if hes lazy, soft, uncommitted to defense, etc. After those guys you have some wild cards. Some people think very highly of Exum but hes kind of a mystery. No one really talks about Marcus Smart anymore but he may have been the top pick last year and a lot of people think he could be a Wade type. Gordon's got major hype but a lot of skeptics. This draft class is very hyped up and it is very good. I don't think it will be as impressive as 1984 or 2003, but its certainly better than your average draft IMO.
This seems about right to me. His block and steal rates are low, which usually translates to the pros. I don't think he'll be a good defender in the NBA. But I think he does project to be a very effective below-the-rim big man.
Well it's always darn near impossible to catch your own bias, so you might be right. But that's kind of what I was saying....there is no MJ/Kobe/Durant guy in this draft, even though people thought there was at the beginning of the year. Embiid looks like the best prospect to me if his back checks out. I actually think I'd take Jabari over Wiggins. Exum sounds exciting but I've never actually watched him play so I'm just talking out of my arse when it comes to him.
I think Wiggens and Jabari are going to be Jordan and Drexler types when their careers are over. Embiid is going to be another Hakeem, or another Oden. HUUUUGE upside, and huge chance his injury will affect him forever. Exum wouldn't be talked about as a top 5 pick if he weren't something special. Randle would fit in with the Bulls just fine, but we already have options at PF. Randle might be a game changer in the sense that Dwight Howard is. He'd be a lesser fit if we had Jimmy and Lu starting at the wings, though. No exceptional 3pt shooting among those three. This draft could be so deep that we actually get a really awesome player at 13. Like Payne. When I say awesome, I mean Noah quality. He'd easily be my pick to start at PF over Taj. McDermott at ~20 is probably going to be about as good as MDJ who was 3rd pick in his draft. Same issues, too. Where to play him, SF or SG. Wiggins is going to be an elite player, barring injuries. I'm satisfied from what I've seen.
I understand what you see when you look at Randle. You view him as a 6'9" guy with a giant wide frame who can score off an array of beautifully polished post moves. Indeed, I think you could make the argument that Randle is one of the more polished post players we've seen in the last at least five years. Where we disagree is that I think you have to consider Randle's effective length, not just his height. As a very rough calculation I think two inches in wingspan is equal to about an inch in height, and Randle has gator arms. At 6'9 (height) 6'11" (wingspan), Randle essentially measures out as a swing man, not a big; think Paul George (6' 8.75", 6' 11.25"), Luol Deng (6'8" height, 7' 0.5" wingspan); Carmelo (6' 7.5", 7' 0"). You don't have to be long to play power forward. Kevin Love, Ryan Anderson, Blake Griffin and Carmelo Anthony are all bitching power forwards. But all four of them have stretch skills that Randle can't dream of. They can handle, pass or shoot better than most guards. I put bigs in three categories when looking at their skill sets. Guys who are approximately 6'10 height/7'4" wingspan and over can consistently score in the post and guard the rim against anybody, provided their skills, quickness and drive allow. This list includes Marc Gasol (7'1" height/7'4" wingspan), Taj Gibson (6'10", 7'4"), Z-Bo (6'9", 7'6"!), D-Howard (6'10.25"/7'4.5"), Anthony Davis (6'10.5"/7'5.5"), Serge Ibaka (6'10"/7'4"), David West (6'9.25"/7' 4.25"), LMA (6' 11.25"/7'4.25") and Boogie Cousins (6'10.75"/7'5.75"). The second group of guys run around 6'9-6'10" in height, 7'1"-7'2" in wingspan. These players are only able to work the post when giving certain favorable matchups, and are only able to situationally guard the rim. This group includes players like Carlos Boozer (6'9.5"/ 7'2.25"), Al Jefferson (6' 9.75"/7' 2.5"), Tristan Thompson (6'8.75"/7'1.25") and Greg Monroe (6'11"/7' 2.25"). The last group, the shorties, are the players who are a size smaller. All of those players who are successful have wonderfully developed swingman components to their games: think Kevin Love, Ryan Anderson, Blake Griffin, Carmelo Anthony, Paul Milsap. They're also all considered bad defenders. So there you go. Where does Randle fit in here? He has a beautiful game, but to be successful in the NBA playing his game he would have to be two sizes bigger. We have to compare him against swingmen and the stretchiest of stretch fours, not bruising bigs. And when you consider Randle as a wing, his bulk and post work don't make a ton of sense. Randle could be so talented that he shows a completely different skill set in the pros. But it feels to me like the vast majority of players who are total and complete busts are the ones who are required to make these dramatic game transformations when they hit the NBA.
Elton Brand (6'9.5" height/7'5.5" wingspan) and Z-Bo (6'9"/7'6") literally have two of the longest wingspans in the entire NBA. At 6'9/6'11" Julius Randle is the length of a small forward. I don't think it's accurate to use them as a comparison.
