Lottery pick: #6, 2nd Rnd Picks: #36, and #57

6’ 9” - 6’ 10” athletic freak with a 7’ 2” wingspan all day long

 

Not sure if everyone realizes this, but as a refresher...

- Each team is assigned 4 number (1-14) combinations based on where they are slotted before the lottery and their corresponding odds based on 1001 total combinations.
- Only the top 4 picks are actually selected in the lottery, the rest of the picks are based on their record in reverse order.
- If a team jumps, it will only be to the top 4. But a team can also fall back spots in case a team behind them jumps to top 4.
- Based on our current standing, the best probabilities for us are dropping to either 7 or 8.

Here is how the current odds stand:



Here is what it looked like last year:

 

were any of you here in person? Is that a younger @THE HCP at 2:15?

I was working at my internship at the time but was going absolutely nuts while listening on radio. Wonder if the team will host something like this again.

(yes, that's Fred Jones and Ime Udoka also present at the event).

 

Yup that's HCP.

 

How annoying will it be if the Lakers/Pelicans jump into the top 4 and their pick doesn't convey? I will personally be furious.

 

Well, i'm really unbothered about the Lakers pick conveying to NO. If LA somehow lands in the top four (~26% chance it does), good for the Pels.

I'm more concerned about the Pels pick, of which they only will have about a 9.4% chance of retaining if they don't get through the PIT.

 

Mostly it will be annoying because if the Lakers jump us, we probably won't be in the top 4 either. It will push us down.

 

The selections are independent of each other. We have one less pick that is possible but our combinations/probabilities won't change. Watch the video I posted above if you need more clarity.

 

It feels like we're not talking about the same thing.

I'm saying I would be annoyed if the Lakers pick go into the top 4, thus jumping us and pushing us down lower than 6th.

And I would be even more annoyed if this was paired with us not getting the Pels pick because they make it through the play-in tourney.

 

But it's not their pick... it's New Orleans pick

 

oh I see what you're talking about. If LA jumps up, and we don't, we have more of a chance to drop below 6. Gotcha.

But our chances of getting one of the other top 4 picks won't get affected if LA climbs up.

(and sidebar), i'm pretty sure the combo will belong to "NOP" officially.

 

Yeah, sorry I'm not even talking about odds. More like a scenario that's going to sting really bad.

 

I think it’s a young BlazerWookie right before HCP too

 

Blazer fan starts to feel a little bit of hope.
Looks at actual lotto odds.
Aaaaand it's gone.

 

I feel like this year, there are so many C prospects that we can still get one. CBS sports has Koloko ranked 34, Kessler ranked 37, Nzosa ranked 44, and Robinson ranked 49. I’d be happy with any of those guys with our 2nd, whoever falls to us.

I’d be ecstatic if we could draft Nzosa at #37, sign Jalen Smith with the MLE, and re-sign Nurk to a decent contract.

Nurkic (27mpg)/Smith (21mpg)/Nzosa

Your C rotation would potentially be set for the next handful of years. It would be exciting to see how Nzosa develops under Billups.

 

at 37.2% chance at landing top 4 is quite decent. It's really too bad that Indiana tanked harder than us the last 15 games.

 

The Blazers out-tanked Indiana the last 15 games (1-14 for the Blazers, 3-12 for the Pacers). They just had too big of a lead in the loss column.

 

It's really too bad we didn't start the tank a week before the all star break but I like us having a better than one in three chance to move up in the draft. It's exciting. Seeing what we'll do if we end up with a mid and late lotto pick would be exciting too. The Pelicans pick not conveying either because they make the playoffs or get really lucky in the lotto is not exciting, it's fucking annoying.

I am predicting that the Spurs get into the playoffs and we end up holding the first and tenth picks on May 17th. Five weeks from tomorrow we'll know our draft position.

 

We can't get 10. That NO pick can only be 11, 12, 13 and maybe 14 if it conveys.

EDIT: NVM, I see what you mean! If Spurs beat NO and make the playoffs, NO would climb a spot. Man, I'm off today. Took sleep meds last night and they're clearly still having their effects on me.