Lowe podcast with Woj

41-41 last year is about as treadmill as it gets. The CP3 deal was a fire sale, unless you count Beverly, Williams (who they’re trying to move), a bunch of bench players, and a protected pick that’s looking like it’s going to be a late first rounder as fair value.

 

As mentioned, if a huge upgrade at the wing will make it work, then Dame, CJ and Nurk aren't that great to begin with.

I think we have a 3&D wing. Stotts says he's our best 'D' player, he's shooting .399 from '3' and he's 220 lbs. Sounds like a SF to me. Too bad Stotts REFUSES to play him at anything but PF.

 

Ultimately, and unfortunately, I think our best chance to contend with this group lies in the draft, but NOT the draft lottery. As long as Dame is here, we won't be in the lottery. So, we need to hit, not a home run, but a fucking grand slam with one of our mid-first to mid-second round picks. We need to find the next Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green outside of the draft lottery. The odds are long, but every couple years, a game changing star it taking outside of the lottery.

Neil has been a total fuck up when signing free agents, that's only partly his fault as this market doesn't attract the top names, but he's given into the market conditions and overpaid non-needle movers. That's on him and smacks of desperation.

His trading history is a mixed bag, but most of the deals have been reactionary, based on current needs rather part of some longer term plan.

The one area where he's found above market value has been the draft. Lillard and McCollum are obvious gems that have played better than many/most players taken ahead of them. We're all hopeful Collins will also turn into a gem. He's also found good value in the second round, with Barton, Crabbe and Connaughton all outperforming their draft positions.

But now, he needs to strike gold. Good value and outperforming their draft positions is no longer good enough. He needs to find a fucking superstar outside of the lottery. That's a nearly, but not quite, impossible task and it sucks that POR is in that position. Rather than trading picks to move bad contracts, he should actually be trying to accurate as many picks between 15 and 35 as possible. And then, he needs to say the hell with need and absolutely draft BPA with every single pick, or bundle multiple picks to move up and grab THAT guy, regardless of position. He needs to find a superstar.

Even if that star plays the same position as Dame or C.J. they would become our most valuable trade asset. It's a lot easier to trade a young star for a proven Paul George/Jimmy Butler level player than it is to try to bundle our garbage in hope of getting something worthwhile in return. And lets face it, no way does any of our garbage get us back a player that would make us contenders - not even close.

BNM

 

This is the absolute best hope, but there is a caveat. Kawhi came into his own in year 4. Giannis, year 3. Draymond, year 4. Butler, year 4. CJ, year 3. PG, year 3. By the time the dude we draft develops to a star or even a top level prospect to garner trade value, we might be nearing the end of Dame's prime (or his tenure in POR). You can say this same strategy/hope was applied in the Zach Collins pick. Realistically, where do we see Collins in year 3?

 

What does this even mean? Make what work? A 3&D player would just take this team from playoffs to contention. Doesn’t have to be a star. And no not this year either, since Collins and Nurk still have developing to do. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen soon though or that we need a major shakeup

 

No.

They won 55 games last year, not 41. The summer prior (when they had won 41 games), they splurged on their free agents in the summer of 16 like everyone else.

We won 44 games that same year they won 41. Splurged on free agents in the summer. Then, won 41 games.

They improved, we stagnated.

 

I'm hoping said player, if we get one, will just be the next in the pipeline of young talent we are developing. That starts with Nurk and then Collins and finally Player X.

Tangent Alert: And please, hire the best fucking big man coach money can buy to accelerate the development of Nurk and Collins.

Even if players like Kawhi, Greek Freak, Butler, etc. did not become superstars until their 3rd or 4th seasons, you could tell within a year, or two tops, that they we're destined for greatness. As long as our other young assets are improving, we will be getting better, eventually have HCA in the first round and poised for a deep playoff run. That will be enough to keep Dame here and engaged. It will also help us start to attract veteran talent at below market pay.

I was looking through current salaries looking for possible targets for out $13 million TPE and noticed there really isn't much of a middle class in the NBA these days. Almost every team has three or four players making $14 - $28 million a year followed by a bunch of young players on cheap rookie deals and rounded out with multiple veterans making the vet min. There are very few players making between the MLE ($8 million) and $13 million a year. We need to become a legitimate top 3 or 4 team in the West to start attracting below market price veterans.

So, develop the two young bigs we have (hire a fucking big man coach already), draft BPA regardless of position with every draft pick and start attracting below market veterans to round out the roster.

It's not ideal, but I can't think of any easy way to get out of our current mess. Like I said, we aren't getting a needle mover for any combination of our garbage, no matter how we package it. Garbage is garbage and more is not better. We should be looking for more draft picks not trading them away to dump our bad contracts.

BNM

 

My initial thought was "fuck me". nothing has changed.

 

So I was off a year. Not sure what we’re arguing about here. My only point is that things change from season to season. The Blazers certainly spent their money poorly in 2016, but they’re on pace to win 45 games this year and can elevate that if they are able to make a good trade by Thursday. Let’s hope they do.

 

Totally agree with this post. But there's yet another hurdle to overcome in the event he DOES strike gold with a mid-pick: that pick needs to PLAY.

 

Um, just about any trade ever made to acquire something of value in return requires picks and/or young players so to say that expirings won't accomplish that on their own is pretty obvious. They are part of the equation of making trades now though. Take last summer for example, if we could have offered players with one year left on their deal and 3 1st round picks for guys like Jimmy Butler or Paul George then things may have been different. No one wanted those guys since they had 3 years left on their contracts. There will always be guys on bad deals that teams are looking to move.

 

In related news, Meyers has his PER back up to 20.0. Good timing young man.

Neil - quick, trade him! His value will never be not lower.

BNM

 

I agree and it makes me wonder why he picked Swanigan last year, a guy who it would appear doesn't have much upside. It seems guys like Kuzma, Ojeleye, Bolden or Iwundu would have been better chances at hitting a home run.

 

Hmmm, how did San Antonio add Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili to their core without giving up Duncan or Robinson or Elliott?

It is possible to get out of purgatory. This doesn't have to be the final stage of this roster. Yes, they have very little margin for error and need to hit a home run but how did they manage to add Nurkic and Collins to Dame and CJ while in a similar situation.

Concerning the core, Collins is still a project but has taken a huge leap in just a few months. Nurk single-handedly took our defense from near the bottom to top-10. You constantly have to add and grow the core.

 

I think he was drafting for need. With Ed Davis being a UFA and Noah Vonleh being a UFA, I think he was shopping for a cheap replacement.

BNM