Merged: The Draft Thread For Stuff About The Draft Including Thoughts About The Draft

Rasta can probably pronounce those names without six drinks and a stroke.

 

If I had to predict right now, I think Donovan Mitchell is the pick at #15 if he's still there and we don't trade up. I have a strong feeling that the workout and interview process improves his stock enough to take him out of our range though.

Neil and Terry saw what having a good point of attack defender like Evan Turner can do to help out Dame and CJ and to get one that has some nice shooting/scoring potential would have a lot of utility on this team.

Size isn't ideal, but his the length and frame gives him a good chance to have some valuable versatility to guard multiple positions. He has Kawhi Leonard like tools at 6'3" although the IQ and motor is still a work in progress.

 

I think the Blazers will move up a few spots to get the player they want. Based only on what I had for lunch, of course.

 

To be fair, having looked at numerous mock drafts, aside from the top 7-8 prospect it's complete mystery who will go when. There are plenty of players who could go 12th but also slip out of top 20, and players who could get between 15-20 or slip out of the first round completely.

Honestly, some of the names I see now around 11-12 are the same names that were projected as very late first rounders not long ago. I even saw TJ Leaf at 14 somewhere and two weeks ago he was projected at 26 to us.

Debating who will be available is therefore a bit of a coin toss. We will probably have a list of top 4-5 targets for our #15, take one of them and then maybe pray that another is also available at #20. At #26 you will basically be choosing from a pool of 10-15 players perceived at similar level.

I hope we come out of this draft with good prospects at small forward and power forward and maybe a back up center or back up shooting guard. Someone who can play both SF and SG and someone who plays both PF and C would be perfect too.

 

If I were doing the scouting there would be all the scouting about every dynamic of a players game, but there would be one check box that decided if that player makes my draft board... Make sure that "Plays his ass off" box is checked.

 

Yeah after the top 10-11, the value from 12 until close to pick 40 isn't that different to me. There's obviously guys I like a lot more than others in that range, but there is a distinct drop off which I think will make it harder to move our picks, both up and down.

 

The names I constantly see in top 10 are Fultz, Ball, Jackson, Tatum (none of them will go lower than 7th), Smith, Fox and Isaac. Most if not all of them will probably be reasonably important for their new clubs hence I very much doubt the picks to take them will be made available. Recently I have also frequently seen Markkanen in top 10, not sure what cause his sudden rise to even top 6 in some mock drafts, but he'll likely be there. Ntilikina has also often appeared but after that, it's a complete mix.

I think the only possibility of trading up is Sacramento's no. 10 pick (if New Orleans don't move into top 3) and even then I am not sure how available that one is. Probably depends on who is still on the table. Sacramento might prefer no. 15 plus no. 20 or no. 15, no. 26 and a player but would we actually prefer that too?

I was actually more curious about the possibility of trading players for lower picks. Wouldn't say no to a no. 30-35 for Aminu, Crabbe or Turner (although I think only Aminu due to his contract could fetch us a pick). Go young and develop.

 

Playing hard is definitely a skill and as long as I see consistent signs of it, I'm good with checking that box (I think Donovan falls into this category fwiw). That's why it's important to watch more than a game or two of these guys before making any proclamations about intangible skills. Everybody has games where their motor runs a bit cold for whatever reason.

 

I'd be willing to move 20 and 26 down into the 30-40 range if it meant getting rid of Turner and Crabbe.

 

in this case, OG, Semi, and Ike should be your guys. honestly i wouldn't mind that draft.

 

For Example: Turner + 20 for 33, and Crabbe + 26 for 37.

There might be teams that really want to move up and don't have to assets too, and are willing to take on cap space to do so.

 

I think we could just as easily trade the 26 for 1 or multiple 2nds if the guys wanna go that route.

Skillset / player archetype is still the #1 thing I look for and if you consider those factors, they all project as low ceiling / high risk prospects imo. The intangibles (IQ, mentality, motor) among other things are there more for determining how likely they are to reach that developmental ceiling for me.

Fwiw, the guy I trust the most out of those 3 is Ike. Just don't think Neil is going use a first on a raw back-up center type.

 

Watching more Swanigan today and his defense is REALLY concerning.

If he can't guard space or the rim, he's not going to be more than an undersized offense only center which isn't a very valuable player at the next level unless he becomes a high volume/good % 3pt shooter. Some will scream Zach Randolph, but at least he was pretty twitchy and had nimble feet plus quick hands to help offer some value defensively. He was also the much better offensive player when you compare them as freshman.

Motley I have more hope for--I think he's more translatable in a reduced nba role as a pnr threat and has a few redeeming defensive qualities--but some athletic and IQ deficiencies might doom him. I'd still be happy if we found a way to grab him with an early-mid 2nd.

At this point, I'd rather take a shot with Pasecniks or Jeanne at #26 if we go big there. These other bigs just aren't good enough or safe enough to pass up on their upside.

Oversized for PF's but both have the mobility to maybe play some 4 next to Nurk.

 

I was very underwhelmed by what I saw from the majority of the prospects this year, especially those outside of the likely top-10. I see 30+ guys who could be solid role players, but very few stars.

So... All this prognostication seems pointless to me. It's going to come down almost entirely to the pre-draft workouts. The college season just showed a bunch of bleh.

 

@JDC When are the combine scrimmages supposed to be? I know the combine was supposedly starting today but I saw no news about any scrimmages that have taken place.

 

The thing is, with that many solid role players, there's at least a couple stars that will come out of that bunch. Some will have hidden attributes, where they didn't get the freedom in college (due to the coach, system, etc.) to showcase their true ability. Either that, or they already have a good base of skills. This good base of skills isn't that interesting, and just seems like the skills that will make them a solid role player. However, if they have the right base to build off of combined with a good work ethic, they can become a star. Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo are extreme examples of this.

 

"The most competitive events at the combine are scheduled for Thursday and Friday, and they will be televised by ESPN2. The event can also be live-streamed on WatchESPN and NBA.com."

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-dates-tv-info-live-stream-and-drills-preview

 

This isn't meant to be snarky, but what does that accomplish?

We clear cap room, but does that matter?

 

You don't think clearing the worst contract off our payroll matters? We're gonna have to resign Nurkic next summer. CJs contract is kicking in. Paul Allen will be paying his roster $250M (including luxery tax) if he doesn't shed salary.

In the end, we accomplish 3 things:
1.) We shed $36M in salary. That's a big amount, that leaves us $5M below the salary cap line. Our payroll would be $99M and the salary cap is projected to be $104M.
2.) We get cheaper, more cost-controllable players in the early 2nd, that aren't much worse off than the players at 20 and 26.
3.) I think we can designate players drafted in the 2nd round as our "16th and 17th" contracts. That means we only take up our "Major League Roster Space" with 1 rookie instead of 3.

Shedding these two contracts means we can really gain cap space.
Davis and Aminu won't be hard to move at all. That's $13M in cap space right there. We could even get a 2nd rounder for one and rotate our three 2nd round rookies with 1 on the NBA roster and 2 in the D(G)-League. After trading Aminu and Davis, we would be $18M or so beneath the cap.

Not only that, but if we really want to gain max cap space, a team will bite on Harkless+Leonard+Future 2nd. Brooklyn is the type of team to try out Leonard as a reclamation project and take Harkless (a NY native) as their starting SF. Adding young assets for free is what they have to do because they have no early round picks. With the position their in, Leonard won't be a hindrance because they don't have the power to attract free agents and won't have that power in the next couple years (because they don't have their picks). So if Leonard isn't a hindrance, then they would surely jump at the chance to add a young talent like Harkless. That's an extra $19.5M in cap space.
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So basically, we could have $35M in cap space while still having Lillard, McCollum, Nurkic, Vonleh, the 15th pick, and two/three 2nd rounders. That's a good position to be in.

We will be able to move Davis, Aminu, Harkless, and Leonard without giving anything up, because Harkless and Aminu are positive assets to other teams that will make it worth taking Leonard.

Essentially: If Olshey is able to move Crabbe and Turner in deals like that, we'll be able to keep our young core while creating $35M in cap space. We'll be able to add veterans that compliment our core (James Johnson, Kyle O'Quinn, etc.). Don't land the right players? Well we could overpay a veteran or two on one year contracts. Jrue Holiday might be willing to be our 3rd guard if we give him a 1-year max. This would make us a good team next year, while keeping flexibility for next summer to try to add the right pieces (as long as we wait on resigning Nurkic until after the 2018 free agency period).

Turner and Crabbe are the key to the off-season. With them, we have no flexibility. Without them, we have full flexibility.

 

Sounds so gross that we'd have to do that.