Merged: TIme to work the Trade Machine! [Possible Chris Paul trades]

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

:'( They get Rudy, Dante and Thornton in one of them...

Just kidding with the crying face. I'm gonna stop posting trades though. I'll just play with it all by myself.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

please don't stop posting them. I enjoy reading and thinking about them. I might find faults in them, but that's the fun of this time of year.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

I'll re-post this here, since it got lost in another thread and this is the dump site for attempts to take a swing at a reasonable-ish trade.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2c4wwhf

Why Portland does it: Duh.

Why New Orleans does it: Trims a ton of salary, getting back two large expiring contracts. In addition three good/useful players who are relatively inexpensive.

Why Oklahoma City does it: They get the talented big man they need to balance out their roster. Fernandez is largely salary filler, but he could be a decent temporary solution for them at starting shooting guard if he gets his game back together a bit.

Basically, I want the main value asset Portland sends out for Paul to be Aldridge. He can't be sent directly to New Orleans because he's a fabulous mismatch for their needs: expensive and is very similar to a player they already have. So I tried to set up a three-way deal where Aldridge could be sent to the third team and the third team would have some solid, inexpensive pieces to give New Orleans (with Portland kicking in the expiring deals). Oklahoma City is really the only team that even comes close to needing Aldridge and having cheap, young assets. I'm not thrilled with making Oklahoma City better (as I think this deal does), but if Portland gets Paul while keeping Roy, Oden and Batum...I'll live with it.

Probably still not enough for New Orleans, but well...not much should be enough for Paul. The premise that Paul could even be acquirable rests on New Orleans being willing to accept a talent downgrade in order to shed a lot of salary. And this does that.

One note for Portland, getting Okafor eases the sting of losing Aldridge, IMO. Okafor is not as good, but I think he's a natural 4, not a 5. While he's not as good a fit offensively alongside Oden (high post/low post), he would create an impenetrable front line alongside Oden and Portland would win the rebounding battle pretty much nightly. With Paul and Roy in the backcourt, Oden's developing offensive game in the post and Batum shooting/slashing from the wing, Portland doesn't need an offensive creator at the 4.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

Harden, Ibaka, and Green is a STEEP price to pay for Aldridge.

The Thunder seem to really value Harden and Ibaka, and while they might not value Green as much anymore, he's still a good young player.

If I was OKC, I certainly wouldn't do that deal.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

I don't agree with that at all. None of the three are as good as Aldridge and while Harden is still an intriguing prospect, he was mildly disappointing in his rookie season. It would be a consolidation deal for them, and those generally go in favour of the team getting the single-best player, not the team grabbing the quantity.

If any of the three were blue chip prospects, that would be different, but none are. Green and Ibaka are both largely average players, though Ibaka has a little bit of upside. Harden is not a blue-chip prospect (like a Wall, Rose or even a Westbrook when he was drafted). And the single best player they get addresses their one major need: a talented big man.

I actually used them and then dropped them and looked for another team because I didn't think they had enough. If I were Portland, I wouldn't deal Aldridge for that package. But then I came back to them because while they aren't equivalent to Aldridge in terms of talent (in my opinion), they are cheaper, which has value.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

I fucking hate it. but, if this is what it took, I would probably do it. in other words. a very well constructed trade. nice job.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

Let's say for the sake of conversation that Oden is dealt for CP3.

Judging by the signings they've made this summer I'd look at NJ as a trading partner -- LMA/prospects for Lopez/Filler

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

Thanks. But you hate it for what Portland gives up, or hate it because it helps OKC? If Portland is getting back Okafor, personally I'd rather keep Batum than Aldridge. So that was why I worked this out...Portland probably can't send Aldridge to New Orleans, since he's too expensive for their tastes.

But if you (general you) like Aldridge significantly more than Batum, I could see this being worse than what's been rumoured.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

Come on Minstrel, I know you are someone who heavily values youth. Harden and Ibaka are both 20 year olds who put up league average PERs in their rookie seasons. That's pretty impressive. And from what I gather from OKC fans, they expect Harden to eventually earn the starting spot and become their second option. I would put Harden on par with Batum at least. Keep in mind, he's only one year coming off being the 3rd overall pick, and didn't get as much burn as say Tyreke Evans who was playing for nothing. Ibaka as a prospect is even better than Bayless imo

Plus, they are dirt cheap, at least compared to Aldridge, and have plenty of years left on their rookie contracts. Green has one more year on his, but he's a decent player, and could probably be resigned for a fair amount.

They are both 20. Serge Ibaka has good size, a good body, and great athleticism. To say they only have a little upside is not only wrong, but pretty insulting. They both put up better PERs than Bayless and Batum, at the same age.

I do like Aldridge (obviously), and I'm sure OKC does too, but you're going to have a hard time convincing them that they're going to win a title with Aldridge as their best big man, and paying him more than Green, Harden, and Ibaka combined.

And, didn't they draft Cole Aldrich? I think they'd rather see how he plays first. (Yes, I know he's a center)

I think you're undervaluing OKC's assets. Just my opinion.

Then you consider the fact that they're facilitating a trade that sends Chris Paul to a division rival. I just can't see them agreeing at all.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

I hate it for two reasons. OKC improves. thats one. The other thing is although I think Batum COULD become better than LMA, and might be close already, I think that LMA would be a more important piece in winning a championship.

Think about it this way, who would Paul make into a better player, Batum, who on D will be the same either way, but on offense is mostly on the perimeter and hence only marginally helped by Paul. LMA on the other hand is closer in and with Oden deep, and LMA in the middle, Paul will have many more chances to improve LMA as a player. Paul will be able to capitalize on the strengths of both LMA and Oden and make our interior (where championships are won) much stronger.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

I don't disagree with that at all. They're still not blue-chip prospects, however. And Harden is not "dirt cheap." He's making about $4.5 million, which is about $1 million short of half of what Aldridge makes. That's cheap enough to be useful to a franchise that doesn't want expensive players, but not so cheap as to be remarkable value. Ibaka I agree is pretty much dirt cheap.

And yes, I preach youth, but I've also been in favour of dealing Batum, Bayless and Rudy (even before Rudy flushed his value down the toilet) for a high level player. A consolidation deal for a team with a number of non-elite assets is generally a step forward.

I actually only put that tag on Ibaka, and I thought he was older than he was. So that's my mistake. Ibaka has significant upside.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

Join the club. I've been doing that very thing since I was a teenager.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

Would Aldridge be that "high level player" for OKC? I don't think so. In fact, I think they would try and cut us out of the deal and try to get Paul themselves, who is truly a star level player.

Harden+Green+Ibaka still costs less than Aldridge, as far as this season is concerned.

I would argue that Harden does as well. Maybe not as much as Ibaka, but a good amount. A rookie coming into the league has a lot to learn over the course of a few years. Look at Roy, someone who was thought of as having limited upside, but improved every season (expect last, where he was injured ). Harden hasn't even had the chance to shine as a player yet, he averaged 23 minutes last year.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

Excellent point.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

I agree. And as well, I don't think Camby wants to go to NO, nor does NO want Camby and his large salary for two more seasons.

I like your idea of trying to take back Posey's salary as well, but I just don't see how we can do it without including Oden or Camby, and including Oden is paying too much for us if we are sending Batum and ALSO eating tons of bad contracts, and Camby has 2 more years, which doesn't help NO dump Posey's two years and Songolia's expiring deal.

Let's go back to the basics of eating Okafor's contract as one of the principal value's of the deal for New Orleans. I think that is the problem NO is having is most other teams want no part of Okafor's contract. The only ones that seem interested in eating Okafor's deal, are, interestingly enough, the teams that Paul has listed for his destination: New York (always willing to spend money); Orlando (in spend big, win now mode, green light from owners); Dallas (Cuban is big spender); and Portland (richest owner).

In order to get Paul and Okafor and match the salaries (if the Blazers start out with Miller & Przy for ending contracts, then add the young talent of Batum and Bayless), the Blazers still need to send $2,937,481 (or more) to NO to make the trade work.

We don't have a salary close to that. Even adding Rudy, we can't make the trade without including one of the rookies as well, and we have to wait until August for that.

If we wait until August, we can add these players and then a straight up trade for Paul and Okafor would work: Luke Babbitt, Cunningham & Pendergraph (total $3,169,830).

Substituting Elliot Williams for Babbitt does not work.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2fgvye3 works if you add Williams or Babbitt on August 6th (The day they can be traded), and is the deal I would push hard for.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

The savings for NO if the traded just Paul and Okafor for:

Miller, Pryz, Batum, Bayless, Babbitt, Cunningham & Pendergraph:

$5,101,399 less in salary owed next season
$3,000,000 estimated savings from Pryz insurance payout
$3,000,000 cash payment for trade (which all other trade partners likely offer)

So, though NO loses their star, they reap $11mil in savings. That is what they are looking for as their first priority. Other teams can offer savings as well. But all deals have to start with this premise. That team is in financial trouble. Even with a star as big as Paul, the Hornet's stadium was empty when the team wasn't winning. And when they were winning, they still didn't sell out. Trading Paul will hurt ticket sales, but that is an unknown loss and in the future. The $ savings they want is concrete and guaranteed.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

Well, that's fine, but you have got Rudy in there. I know that NO could always try to trade Rudy, but it is a pain, and I think that NO would rather not have the uncertainty and difficulity of trying to mess with it.

No, I think we need to pull Rudy out and trade Rudy ourselves, for a SF to replace Batum/Babbitt.

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

Good post. and you are probably right about Camby. However, the one positive that NOH gets by adding Camby is that it makes the total amount of the deal larger. So if they send out the max in salaries in a trade that also includes Camby, they end up being able to save an additional couple million so instead of instant savings of 5 mil (+cash and JPEC savings) they are able to get instant savings of 7 mil (+cash and JPEC savings).

I don't know if that extra 2 mil would be worth it to Shinn or not, considering the extra contract year.


On a different not.
Question, in your proposed trade the Blazers would need to make up ~ 2.937 mil. If they include rudy 1.24mil, that would be reduced to about 1.7 mil. Could the Blazers S&T a vet min contract (about 1.3-1.4) and S&T a min contract (like to Mills)(about 0.4mil) just to make up the rest of the bill and complete the Paul trade?

 

Re: TIme to work the Trade Machine!

I think they would rather have Rudy and their choice of Babbitt/Williams instead of Pendersuck. Just my opinion. And if he sucks it up, they don't have to exercise his option. He's dirt cheap as it is anyways.

As for trading Rudy for a SF, who's out there? Honestly, we're better off trying to find someone with the BAE. Someone like Udoka. James Jones would have been nice actually, if he didn't sign with the Heat...