Merged: Who would you give up for Paul George?

I think Miami is the most likely. 14th + Winslow + Johnson > Crabbe + 3 1sts

 

How?

Winslow isn't good at all. His TS% last year was under 40%. That's horrible. Yes, he's young, and yes, he's a pretty solid defender, but those types never amount to much. He's Michael Kidd-Gilchrist at best. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is more likely.

Johnson is a decent player but he'll be making $19M a year after next year. He's not much better than Crabbe.

So lets look at this: 14th and 15th are even.
I think we'd trade Harkless + Vonleh + Filler.
Harkless + Vonleh = $12M a year.
After next year, Johnson + Winslow = $24M per year.

Harkless is better than Winslow, and has two-way potential (and is already somewhat serviceable on both ends) which Winslow doesn't. Winslow has also already had injury issues.
Vonleh is more valuable to IND than Johnson, because he's 21, much cheaper, and a good fit next to Turner.

Then you toss in the 20th and 26th picks and that becomes the tipping point for us.

I think there's a 50% chance he's traded, with us having the edge.

 

I don't think they will trade Young to us. He is still an asset that could be used in another trade. They will want to send Ellis or Jefferson. If we have to take one of them and also give up two young assets in Vonleh and Harkless, then I don't think we have to give them all three picks, especially since we need one to replace Vonleh.

 

DEN is the only team I'd be worried about. However, I don't think Barton or Beasley will be of much value to IND.
Mudiay has been a downright awful NBA player. His ceiling is Ricky Rubio. I don't think IND will value him either.

Harris, Murray, Hernangomez, and 13 is a good offer, but doesn't make much sense for DEN, and is giving up a lot. Harris is the most underrated SG in the league, and I think they really value him. They'd have to give up Harris, Murray, 13, and a future 1st to top our offer of 15, 20, 26, Vonleh, and Harkless, and that's if they really think they can resign him.

I could easily Even if they sign Holiday, could they really contend with Holiday/George/Chandler/Faried/Jokic?
They have 1 all-star player, and that seems a lot like the position George was in last year. Teague is better than Holiday, Jokic and Turner are equal talents, and Faried isn't any better than Young. George would be their only all-star level player.

 

DEN did offer IND a "monster" offer for Paul George at the trade deadline, but Paul George wasn't sold on them. http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2017/2/23/14715964/nuggets-trade-rumors-paul-george-pacers-monster-offer

I think we could sell Paul George on our Big 4. I think George would be much more interested in coming here, and could likely control his destiny by playing down (like he did at the deadline) the likely-hood of him staying in Denver.

 

Trading Young essentially gets them Vonleh. They'd do that swap IMO. Trading Ellis and PG for Vonleh, Harkless, and 3 First Round Picks is actually not a good enough deal on our part.

 

I love your enthusiasm and your 33% chance estimate to land George. One minor quip, I wouldn't call Turner and Jokic equal talents. You really don't think Indiana would take .00000000001 of a second to say yes to a Jokic for Turner straight up trade?

 

If we don't trade for PG I will be pretty disappointed, unless we land a couple pieces like Crowder and Thad Young.

We've haven't added an all-star in the off-season since (Scottie Pippen?). Olshey did some magic in LAC landing Chris Paul. He's done this type of thing before. He has the assets. It's time for him to take a swing instead of messing around with Aminu/Turner/Crabbe level players.

 

I don't think there is a chance in hell the Nugz trade Harris or Murray in a deal for PG. They are really high on both and even with PG they are likely the 4th best in the west. I agree that they would have more to offer but I think they are pretty dead set on building around those young guys. Barton is no longer that appealing and Mudiay has been dreadful offensively. Beasley and Hernangomez aren't someone you look to start a rebuild with either.

The more I look into it the more I think of the teams willing to trade fo PG we have the most to offer with the best chance of contending with him on the roster. Should be interesting.

 

Out of all the trade parts, I keep Vonleh. He is a different piece than the rest because the Blazers don't have anyone else like him. Plenty of wings and shooting guards but Vonleh ended up being in the top 1/3 of PF's in the league in Rebounds per minutes played. He's still raw but fits very well with Nurkic and since he doesn't need the ball, he fits very well as a rebounder, screener and is the best big on the roster in switching out onto the perimeter on defense.

 

Jokic is slightly better, but he hasn't proven he's an all-star level player yet. He had a spurt of greatness last season, but is it sustainable? Turner is the better defender, and has shown he has the tools to develop into a 20 and 10 guy offensively. He hasn't had anything ran through him, while Jokic became the center point of DENs offense last season. Make Turner the focal point offensively and I think he's about as good as Jokic.

 

Unless they think they can get something better than the 26th pick from another club for Young, AND it's important for them to get Ellis or Jefferson off the books.

 

You keep him if possible, but I honestly think IND will value Vonleh as much as the 15th overall draft pick. Vonleh and Turner are the same age (21), and both are good defenders capable of guarding 4s and 5s. Both have potential to be decent-good 3pt shooters, and both have budding low post games. I think IND would want Vonleh and Turner as a frontcourt going forward, giving them 6 years to grow together before they hit their primes, and a duo that compliments each other very well. Vonleh would be comfortable playing there, and I do think that him playing in Indiana in college matters a little bit. I think they'd use the picks on exciting young talent, and then sign Yogi Ferrell to see what he could do over a full season as a starting PG. The team would be bad (which is good for them, because they'd land a high pick next year), but I think they'd still sell tickets anyway because of Turner, their rookies, and the Indiana University duo of Vonleh and Ferrell.

 

The teams that would trade higher pick for Young would have to match salary with a bad contract, so I don't think it'd be a more valuable offer. I think that we'd be in enough control of the situation to convince them to fork over Young in a deal, especially if we trade them Moe, Vonleh, Leonard, Ezeli, and 3 future 1sts. They'd save $10M and gain 5 young assets in Moe, Vonleh, and picks, and would be able to take a flyer on Leonard backing up Turner. Leonard is from the area, so he would be more comfortable.

 

Last year I had a feeling we'd land a big time free agent. I was wrong.

This year I have an even stronger feeling we'll land Paul George, and I'm more confident in that feeling because Neil is in more control of the situation, and is much better at convincing another GM to a trade than he is of convincing a free agent to come to a city he doesn't truly like.

 

as stated earlier by other posters I like the odds cause of contracts handed out by NO to PG13's agent's other clients

 

as would be our bench?

+1 for your optimism, however in reality I think we have little chance

 

Paul George makes us the 2nd best team in the west and probably the 3rd best team in the NBA (if the Celtics dont add Hayward).

.........It'll never happen

 

also, Turner is 21, so...
Turner (21)/Vonleh (21!)/Harkless (24)/Crabbe (25)/4 1st rounder draft picks would be a very reasonable young team with a lot of potential.