Mirotic is 8th on the Bulls in 3 point percentage. Why is that?

Discussion in 'Chicago Bulls' started by kukoc4ever, Apr 14, 2015.

  1. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    The low 3pt % isn't hurting him because of the FTA he gets.

    As rosenthall pointed out, the opposition is a bit behind in scouting him, but are catching up. I think the big month of March opened teams' eyes a bit.

    The big thing I noticed is that opponents are being coached to not buy his pump fake out by the 3pt line. He gets to the line a LOT from that move - gets his defender up in the air, leans in and initiates contact while flopping up a shot.

    Take that away and he really has to work for it.

    For sure, our 1st round playoff opponent won't be behind on the scouting. They'll be studying films of the team in advance of tip off for game 1.

    And then they'll study the film of game 1. And so on.
     
  2. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    The hell with "in a couple of years."

    upload_2015-4-14_11-20-47.png

    That could happen more consistently from here on out.
     
  3. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    If Niko can drain 3s like Dirk, the Bulls will be in really good shape.

    If he's shooting 31-32%, I think defenses will be comfortable with him shooting.

    If he can go 6-11 every night, he'll win the MVP.
     
  4. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    That he can go 6-11 is reason to guard him. Regardless of his 30% on the season.

    I'll gladly take 33% or better from a guy who scores a lot.
     
  5. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    That's true for the other stretch 4s with higher percentages though as well.

    They are all shooting what they are shooting over the course of a season, given the defenses are guarding them as stretch 4 types.

    If anything, Niko gets perhaps a bit more space since he's good at taking it to the hole if you play him to close or bite on the fake.
     
  6. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    If anything, the SF position requires him to run around and use screens and catch and shoot (or drive). Or stand in the corner outside the 3pt line for a kic out pass. He's played a lot at SF.

    He really needs to become good at the position so we don't have to bench Taj for Dunleavy.

    upload_2015-4-14_11-39-3.png
     
  7. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    Do you think Mirotic is going to get the hang of SF before this season ends? I don't see any reason why he's couldn't get the feel for it -- like I don't think he needs rework his mechanics or develop new skills, he just seems to need to get used to the different close out speed and options available at the position. That said, I would be pretty surprised if it happens this season.
     
  8. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I think if he wants to play, he better get used to SF. He's #2 on the depth chart at SF and #4 at PF.

    I'm quite certain he's going to play a lot of SF. Thibs IS going to play him as many minutes as makes sense.

    The starting lineup and player usage through the first three quarters (up until Mirotic entered the 2nd half) proved plenty good enough to bury the Nets.

    I think Thibs is a veteran elite coach. He'll use guys who are playing the best and he won't use guys who waste time on the floor. Hence Kirk vs. Tony for #9 in the rotation - a warning to Kirk to come to play or he won't play.
     
  9. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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    God bless the folks who want to ignore the cold, hard fact that this team is at its best when Nikola Mirotic is the Power Forward.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    This team plays better when Nikola Mirotic is the PF.

    End. Of. Story.

    It doesn't matter if Gasol, Noah, or Gibson is the center next to Niko, but Niko should be the PF the majority of the time.

    Niko/Noah: 579 min, 104.7 - 99.9 (+4.8 per 48 min)
    Niko/Taj: 662 min, 104.1 - 99.3 (+4.8 per 48 min)
    Pau/Taj: 854 min, 106.9 - 102.4 (+4.5 per 48 min)
    Niko/Pau: 632 min, 103.6 - 100.1 (+3.5 per 48 min)
    Pau/Noah: 1258 min, 103.2 - 100.4 (+2.8 per 48 min)
    Taj/Noah: 421 min, 97.3 - 104.8 (-7.5 per 48 min)

    However, the team has been outscored when Niko plays SF.

    Niko/Pau/Noah: 59 min, 89.1 - 84.0 (+5.1 per 48 min) +6 overall
    Niko/Taj/Pau: 105 min, 105.0 - 102.4 (+2.6 per 48 min) +6 overall
    Niko/Taj/Noah: 174 min, 96.0 - 102.4 (-6.4 per 48 min) -23 overall
    ___________________________________________________________________________

    This doesn't include last night, when Niko played all of his 24 minutes at PF and the team was +21.

    PER is a highly important and widely used stat to some, until it's Niko vs Taj (17.9 vs 16.3).

    But as a huge fan of comedy, I do love reading some of the stuff here, it's great for laughs.
     
  10. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    174 minutes. What's that, about 3 games' worth of playing time?

    :lol:
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2015
  11. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Even though the sample sizes are ridiculously small, by your own data, the +5.1 per 48 minute lineup has the best point differential of the ones you listed.
     
  12. Bullsville

    Bullsville Intelligent Bulls Fan

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    Uhhh, no, Niko has played 338 minutes at SF.

    I thought a person had to be able to read and comprehend plain, simple English to become a lawyer??

    Of course, we all know you're here to just fuck with people, why else rip on the sample size in one post while praising it in the next?

    Then again, laughter is the best medicine, and reading your bullshit keeps me at the peak of health.

    :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
     
  13. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    Not sure what any of that has to do with Niko's poor comparative 3 point shooting percentage to other stretch fours and to other Bulls players as well, other than Rose.

    Do you think he's about a 31-32% 3 point shooter or do you think he'll improve with time / experience? He's just a rookie after all, right?
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2015
  14. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    You look like the fool you are when you don't even read what you post.

    upload_2015-4-14_20-33-33.png

    Huge sample size. Your data are just so awesome. 174 is the MOST of the minutes you have for any of the permutations of Niko at SF.

    You're earning the name bullshitville with every post.

    And have a look at the +5.1 figure you posted. It's the BEST of all the point differentials of the numbers you misinterpreted.
     
  15. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    upload_2015-4-14_20-38-46.png

    Let's go with the +5.1 lineup.

    Thank god you're not the coach.
     
  16. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    1). I think he'll improve with time.

    2). I think he's already the sort of shooter that, if continually left open and allowed to get in a rhythm, can shoot at a very high % with high volume. As evidenced by last game.
     
  17. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    Most NBA players can hit a high percentage of shots if left open. The percentage during the games is what matters, right? And the other stretch fours would likely hit higher percentages than they currently have if they were unguarded.

    When compared to other stretch fours (at least the ones I came up with), and his Bulls teammates, Mirotic is a below average 3 point shooter. He can and hopefully will improve, but to this point, he's been below average.
     
  18. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    The amount of defensive attention someone requires to get disrupted out of their offensive rhythm is not equal. I would guess Kirk Hinrich and Stephen Curry would both do very well in a shootaround at an empty gym. But their shooting commands very different levels of resources from opposing defenses. It's a by-product of your athleticism, release, and other weapons you have in your repertoire that defenses also have to account for if they play up on you.

    Again, it basically comes down to whether or not the scouting report on Mirotic is efficient. I think you're basically saying that it's not, and therefore a lot of the success Mirotic creates on the floor is a by-product of how teams mis-scout him. Ie, he's NOT a good shooter, and teams are over-respecting his shot. Once this gap clears up, Mirotic and his +/- will suffer because there won't be other ways to compensate for it, and therefore some of his success is a mirage.

    I think Mirotic's scouting report is probably about accurate, and it'd be difficult to play him differently without creating corresponding weakness that would result in him having a higher TS% than he has right now. And I say this incorporating his existing 3P %.
     
  19. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    I'm not really saying much of anything other than its interesting that his 3 point shooting percentage is lower than most Bulls and most other stretch fours. He has the rep of a great 3 point shooter. Most great 3 point shooters have highish shooting percentages from that distance.

    We'll see what happens long term. We see how teams handle the only guy with a lower percentage 3 point percentage than Mirotic (Rose). Its basically "fire away."

    If Mirotic is a good 3 point shooter we would expect to see a higher 3 point %, right? Its not like opposing defenses are letting guys like Korver (or even Dunleavy) shoot uncontested.

    Yah, if you take away the FTs by letting him shoot more uncontested, perhaps the 3 point % goes up. And he just might get better at the shot. And I guess having your PF being able to shoot 32% even from three creates the space benefits of having him out there. All the more reason that he's more valuable at the 4 spot. The sad thing is the org built the team to have 3 other very capable players at the 4 and 5.
     
  20. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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