MLB predictions for 2008

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MLB predictions for 2008 Monday, March 24, 2008 10:06 AM

By Tom Covill
PA SportsTicker Assistant Baseball Editor

With the Boston Red Sox set to begin their 2007 World Series defense against the Oakland Athletics on the other side of the world, there are precious few moments left to get some preseason predictions down on paper.

Of course, these are subject to change pretty much anytime I feel like revising my opinions.

Without further adieu, let's begin with the National League East, which welcomes the most expensive pitcher in big league history this season.

NL East:

1. New York Mets

Why they'll win: Rotation strength. While their top two contenders in the division can boast a 1-2 combination comparable to Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez, no one can match John Maine at No. 3 and Oliver Perez at No. 4.

Potential pitfalls: Depth and defense. Age is beginning to catch up to most of the lineup, and it stands to reason that Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran and Moises Alou will be fighting to stay healthy yet again. The main backups are Endy Chavez and Damion Easley - serviceable players both, but no one on which the Mets want to pin championship hopes.

Key player: Oliver Perez. The rest of the rotation will be fine, and if Perez can maintain the same type of consistency he had last season, New York should win.

2. Atlanta Braves

Why they'll fall just short: The Braves are still searching for that perfect mix of veterans and youth, and there's a very good chance that Tom Glavine is no longer Tom Glavine.

If everything broke right: If - the biggest if in the division - Mike Hampton shows up and pitches to his abilities and Chipper Jones stays healthy, Atlanta could put together a serious run.

Key player: Mark Kotsay. The Braves brought the veteran center fielder in in the offseason to lock down the position Andruw Jones has held since 1996, but he is already sore this spring.

3. Philadelphia Phillies

Why they'll fall just short: Pitching. The Phillies just can't match the arms the Mets and the Braves will throw out, all the way from the back of the rotation to the back of the bullpen.

If everything broke right: The best offense in the division could mask even the biggest pitching deficiencies if Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins spend the season fighting for the MVP award again.

Key player: Kyle Kendrick. The second-year righthander stepped up in the second half last season. He will need to take another step in 2008.

4. Washington Nationals

Why they'll be fun to watch: Tools galore all over the diamond. General manager Jim Bowden brought in trouble outfielders Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes in the offseason, and Felipe Lopez, Ronnie Belliard and Cristian Guzman are all fighting for middle infield time.

Why they have no chance: The Nationals have done well in the past two drafts to build pitching depth in the organization, it just won't be apparent at the major league level yet.

Key player: Ryan Zimmerman. The 24-year-old third baseman is poised to challenge New York's David Wright for the title of "best young third baseman in baseball."

5. Florida Marlins

Why they'll be fun to watch: The talent is unmistakable, from shortstop Hanley Ramirez to right fielder Jeremy Hermida to center fielder Cameron Maybin.

Why they have no chance: Like the Nationals, the Marlins have very little pitching talent at the major league level, and won't spend the money to bring any in.

Key player: Ramirez. The 24-year-old shortstop could post 40 homers and 40 steals this season.

NL Central:

1. Milwaukee Brewers

Why they'll win: Depth. The Brewers can pound the ball for one through eight in the lineup, and have the welcome problem of too many pitchers for five rotation spots, including standout youngsters Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra.

Potential pitfall: The bullpen. Milwaukee allowed closer Francisco Cordero to leave via free agency in the offseason, and chose to replace him with Eric Gagne and his 6.57 ERA after August 1 of last season.

Key player: Rickie Weeks. If the 25-year-old second baseman can stay healthy, the Brewers could have the best lineup in the NL.

2. Chicago Cubs

Why they'll fall just short: Because they're the Cubs. The franchise hasn't won a World Series since 1908, and while they made strides in the right direction last season, there's just not enough there yet.

If everything broke right: If the Cubs could settle their bullpen situation and bat Ryan Theriot and Alfonso Soriano down in the lineup where they belong, they might have a chance.

Key player: Kosuke Fukudome. The latest Japanese import was brought in to provide a high on-base percentage guy on a team that desperately needs one.

3. Cincinnati Reds

Why they'll fall short: Dusty Baker is not the right man for the job. For example, he has already sent down the top prospect in the game, Jay Bruce, in favor of middling talent Corey Patterson.

If everything broke right: If Baker could find a way to integrate top prospects Bruce, Joey Votto, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto - hopefully without blowing out the arms of the latter two - then the Reds have a shot.

Key player: Francisco Cordero. Cincinnati lavished the closer with a four-year deal to stabilize a bullpen that was the worst in the game last season.

4. St. Louis Cardinals

Why they have no chance: Starting pitching. The Cardinals are counting on names like Braden Looper, Joel Pineiro and Brad Thompson to make major contributions this season.

Why they'll be fun to watch: Albert Pujols is still on the team. When you boast the best righthanded-hitting talent in the league, people will come out to watch. Of course, if St. Louis is slow out of the gate, Pujols could opt for surgery to repair a balky elbow.

Key player: Adam Wainwright. Miscast as the ace, Wainwright's talent is nevertheless undeniable, and he is poised for a breakout campaign.

5. Houston Astros

Why they have no chance: The pitching staff consists of Roy Oswalt and nobody else.

Why they'll be fun to watch: Oswalt is a bulldog every fifth day, and the team should score some runs.

Key player: Miguel Tejada. If he can bounce back from the Mitchell Report rumors and hit up to his capabilities, then the Crawford boxes in left field could get a workout. However, no one on the pitching staff will be happy about a shortstop whose range seems to be diminishing by the day.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Why they have no chance: New ownership and a new front office supposedly have a plan, it just won't be evident this season.

Why they'll be fun to watch: Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny are legitimate talents in the rotation.

Key player: Jason Bay. The former All-Star needs to bounce back from an injury-plagued 2007 that saw him post the worst numbers of his career.

NL West:

1. Arizona Diamondbacks

Why they'll win: Because Randy Johnson will make at least 25 starts, giving them the best one, two, three punch in the division.

Potential pitfalls: The kids on offense need to show improvement after turning in the third-worst hitting stats of any team in the NL last season.

Key player: Stephen Drew. Perhaps the most disappointing of the youngsters last season, Drew will need to start living up to his potential at the plate.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

Why they'll fall just short: New manager Joe Torre will find the right combinations, it will just be too late to catch Arizona by the time he does.

Why they'll still end up with the Wild Card: Because the Dodgers might have more talent than any team in the NL, and now they have a manager who won't constantly trip over himself.

Key player: Jason Schmidt. If/how the veteran righthander bounces back from his shoulder issues will determine if Torre has to do what he constantly did in New York - blow out his bullpen.

3. Colorado Rockies

Why they'll fall just short: Last season's NL World Series representative may actually be better this season, but the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers are just too strong.

Why they'll be fun to watch: Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales have electric stuff, and the offense never fails to score runs.

Key player: Jimenez. How the 24-year-old reacts to his first full season in the majors could swing the balance of power in the division.

4. San Diego Padres

Why they're not as good as you think: The offense and defense are atrocious, as only Adrian Gonzalez is likely to post good numbers, and only Gonzalez and Khalil Greene have a track record of being able to catch the ball.

Why they'll be fun to watch: Jake Peavy just keeps getting better, and might be the best righthander in the game.

Key player: Jim Edmonds. If the veteran Gold Glover can recover for a calf injury and play a decent center field, the pitchers might not be quite as frustrated with the defense.

5. San Francisco Giants

Why they have no shot: The Giants' options for the middle of the batting order include Benji Molina and Aaron Rowand.

Why they'll be fun to watch: Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum give them a pair of power arms at the top of the rotation.

Key player: Any of the four or five rookies slated to make a contribution this season.

National League Division Series: Mets over Dodgers and Diamondbacks over Brewers

National League Championship Series: Mets over Diamondbacks

National League Cy Young Award: Johan Santana, Mets

National League Most Valuable Player: Prince Fielder, Brewers

AL East:

1. Boston Red Sox

Why they'll win: There are no apparent holes. The Red Sox had the best pitching staff in the AL last season and the third-ranked offense, and everybody is back.

Potential pitfalls: Starting pitching depth. Curt Schilling is already lost until at least midseason, and Josh Beckett had a scare during the spring with back spasms.

Key player: Julio Lugo. Boston got virtually no offense from Lugo last season, and could be unstoppable if he gets his act together.

2. New York Yankees

Why they'll fall just short: Age on the offense and youth on the pitching staff. The Yankees are wisely building toward the future, but may have to take a small step back this season before taking two steps forward.

Why they'll miss the playoffs for the first time in 13 years: Because somebody has to, and the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers will have something to say about the wild card.

Key player: Phil Hughes. The young righthander has all the talent in the world, and the Yankees decided to hold onto him instead of landing Johan Santana.

3. Tampa Bay Rays

Why they have no shot: They are still two years away. The Rays will have the most talent on the field in nearly every game this season, but much of it is unproven.

Why they'll be fun to watch: Players like Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and B.J. Upton will keep them in almost every game.

Key player: Troy Percival. The veteran closer came out of retirement last season and signed a two-year deal with the Rays over the winter. If he can stabilize the bullpen, then Tampa Bay will turn some heads.

4. Toronto Blue Jays

Why they have no shot: They play in the same division as the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays.

Why they'll be fun to watch: Four power arms in Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum at the top of the rotation will keep opposing hitters on their toes.

Key player: Scott Rolen. Perhaps no player needed a change of scenery more than Rolen, who openly feuded with manager Tony La Russa in St. Louis. Now he'll need to shake off the shoulder injuries that have plagued him since 2005.

5. Baltimore Orioles

Why they have no shot: Much needed rebuilding phase begins this season, and the pitching staff will take its lumps.

Why they'll be fun to watch: What's not fun about a once-proud franchise toiling in obscurity.

Key player: Adam Jones. The biggest piece of the rebuilding puzzle landed over the winter, Jones has Eric Davis-type talent.

AL Central:

1. Cleveland Indians

Why they'll win: They have the best pitching of any team in the division, and can count on bounce-back years at the plate from Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore.

Potential pitfalls: The top of the rotation - C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona - logged way more innings last season than they ever had in their careers, leaving open the risk of injury this season.

Key player: Hafner. The power-hitting DH will need to post number closer to 2006 (.308/42/117) than 2007 (.266/24/100)

2. Detroit Tigers

Why they'll fall just short: Their pitching staff consists on Justin Verlander and 11 question marks. The bullpen is especially a point of concern.

Why they'll still take the Wild Card: No team will be able to outslug the Tigers, who figure to have the best offense in baseball this season with the addition of Miguel Cabrera.

Key player: Joel Zumaya. If the hard-throwing righthander can come back and join the bullpen at full strength by midseason, then many of the other issues will go away.

3. Chicago White Sox

Why they have no shot: They got old in a hurry, and the farm system is almost completely bare.

Why they'll be fun to watch: New center fielder Nick Swisher is always fun, and Cuban defector Alexei Ramirez is a unique talent.

Key player: Jose Contreras. The righthander will need to prove he's still got it after a brutal 2007 (10-17, 5.57 ERA).

4. Minnesota Twins

Why they have no shot: They gave away their clubhouse leader (Torii Hunter) and their ace (Johan Santana) in the offseason.

Why they'll be fun to wath: Francisco Liriano is back and fully recovered after "Tommy John" surgery robbed him of the entire 2007 campaign.

Key player: Joe Mauer. It's time for the sweet-swinging catcher to fill the leadership void left by Hunter.

5. Kansas City Royals

Why they have no shot: The rebuilding process is moving along very slowly and has yet to make much impact on the pitching staff.

Why they'll be fun to watch: They may finish in last place, but they should be better than last season.

Key player: Alex Gordon. The second-year third baseman will need to build on his positive second half performance from last season.

AL West:

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Why they'll win: They're just better than everyone else in the division, from the pitching staff, to the offense, to the bench on down through the minor leagues.

Potential pitfalls: John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar are already hurt, and will need to be healthy for the Angels to make a deep playoff run.

Key player: Torii Hunter. Can he provide the bat the Angels sorely need behind Vladimir Guerrero? Only time will tell.

2. Seattle Mariners

Why they have no shot: They just can't hit with the Angels.

Why they'll be fun to watch: Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez give them the most talented 1-2 punch in the majors.

Key player: Richie Sexson. The slugging first baseman needs to provide something on offense for the club to have a shot.

3. Texas Rangers

Why they have no shot: The rebuilding process has yet to be completed.

Why they'll be fun to watch: The Rangers brought in loads of talent in trades last season and have a very bright future.

Key player: Josh Hamilton. If the new center fielder can stay healthy, he is one of the most talented players in the game.

4. Oakland Athletics

Why they have no shot: Another team in a rebuilding phase, the A's have already cashed in this season for the future.

Why they'll be fun to watch: Good question, although Travis Buck is a nice player.

Key player: Rich Harden. Eventually he has to make it through a season injury free, right?

American League Division Series: Red Sox over Tigers and Indians over Angels

American League Championship Series: Red Sox over Indians

World Series: Red Sox over Mets

American League Cy Young Award winner: Josh Beckett, Red Sox

American League Most Valuable Player: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers

Question or comment? E-mail Tom.Covill@pa-sportsticker.com.