Seth IS the KOBE STOPPER! Kobe hasn't scored a single point on him ALL SEASON - and I guaransheed that Seth will keep him scoreless for the rest of his career.
OK, so not FT%. But let's look at FG%. Are you shooting in an empty gym? No. Your FG% is a function of how open you get, which is a function of what your other team members are doing, and also a function of what your coach wants you to do. Look at Brook Lopez. Has he become a new player? No. But his stats this year are radically different from last year. Why? Because he's on a different team and being asked to do different things. But, you say, suppose a player changes several teams and maintains stable stats - doesn't that mean that their stats are mostly indicative of them and not their teammates? Well, sure. IF that happens. But also, what if a player is CONSISTENTLY a positive in the +/-, across teams and lineups?
This is isn't an "extreme example" it's just a small sample size. But of course all stats are less useful the smaller the sample size. And if Curry was ALWAYS leaching off others then it would be very hard for him to LEAD THE TEAM in +/-. Your only explanation would have to be that there was one player who was a consistent drag on the team success and Curry never played with that person. But if you argued that, you would be saying that IT'S POSSIBLE for someone to be THE KIND OF PLAYER who always brings down scoring (in a way that was not indicated by their other stats) which would be an admission that the +/- stat really registers something that you can't capture with other stats. I disagree. What you mean is "I can't see what he's doing that's causing the team to do well when he's on court". THAT I can agree with.
I once played on a team where it was myself and one other good player. Everyone else had virtually no experience playing organized basketball. I pretty much played the whole game every time so my +/- would be whatever the differential of the final score was. If we took the time to keep stats and included +/- the other guys would fluctuate depending on what happened when they were in the game. There would likely be guys that had a higher +/- than me even though they literally contributed nothing to the outcome of the game. Does that mean I should sit out more and let those guys play when they can't even dribble the ball up the court or create a shot for themselves on offense if I'm not in? I get what you are saying about stats being a team thing. If I pass to a wide open shooter and he makes it, I get an assist. If he misses it doesn't show up as anything in a box score. It's not Dame's fault if Aminu misses a wide open 3. Often times steals are the result of a teammate pressuring the ball on a pass. Of course players will be different if used correctly in better systems.
The difference between me and you Curry-haters is that you think I think +/- is a fail-safe indicator that Curry is a great player. But I don't. The difference is that YOU think OTHER stats are fail-safe indicators that he sucks. That and you think he looks shit. He may indeed be shit. But the fact that you have to bend over backwards to "explain" his team-leading +/- stat leads me to doubt it. The longer he keeps up this team-leading +/- stat, the more I believe that his presence (even as a decoy) is helping the team. Maybe he's coasting on his rep even while shooting poorly. Hey, then his rep is helping the team. Great!
Well that is why +/- is a dumb stat to base an argument off of. If Curry plays more than 17 minutes per game what would be more likely: 1) His +/- regresses more towards the rest of the team. 2) His +/- will continue to grow at the same proportional rate.
Regression to the mean is always "more likely". I believe Rasta's point is that given the current data, we should conduct the experiment necessary to test the hypothesis.
My goodness, there isn't a single stat that is a fail-safe indicator. I'll give you +/-, a career best 2.7 assists per game, and a stellar 46% from 3, but every single other stat is either below average, bad, or horrendous. You keep bringing up +/- while ignoring everything else, yet we're the ones not thinking right here? C'mon.
Well, we also don't know how cautious they're being with his minutes considering he missed all of last year. It's possible they are limiting him.
