Yes, statistically, they are about as close as can be, especially if you look at per-36 numbers and advanced stats. Many voters won't. BNM
Voters are fickle. Dame seems to be peaking at the perfect time, and his numbers have been outrageous. I think he has a great shot of making 1st team if we finish hot.
It's not a projection. It's a straight linear interpolation. It assumes the same level of production, which is a huge assumption that's not entirely valid, as minutes increase. Do you really think Meyers Leonard would average 16 pg and 10 rpg if he played 36 minutes per game? A true projection would look at the slope of the line to predict how production declines (or possibly improves) as minutes increase. For most players, it would look more like this: Than this: BNM
I'm disagreeing with the validity of it as an accurate projection of player performance vs. minutes played. Do you believe a player who currently plays 18 MPG will be EXACTLY twice as productive if he suddenly starts playing twice as many minutes? Because, that's EXACTLY what per-36 number says he will do. Bullshit. And if it's not valid for a player whose minutes increase from 18 MPG to 36 MPG, then why is it assumed to be valid for a player whose playing time increases from 32 MPG to 36 MPG. Each additional minute played increases fatigue which, in general, decreases efficiency. BNM
At the same token, Irving is a more efficient shooter, so it's possible he could put up even better numbers with more minutes
Barely (.610 vs. .601), and that again assumes his shooting efficiency won't suffer from the fatigue of playing an extra 4 MPG. I don't buy that at all. When shooters lose their legs, their shots tend to come up short. They just don't get the same lift on the shot as they do when they are fresh. For example, Kyrie Irving TS% by quarter: 1st quarter TS = 65.8 2nd quarter TS = 60.0 3rd quarter TS = 60.0 4th quarter TS = 58.1 Notice a trend? Why would you think his efficiency wouldn't continue to decline with more playing time? BNM
Then they would play him more minutes. Look at Meyers Leonard's shooting percentages. They're incredible. Why aren't we playing him more? Because if we played him more, he wouldn't shoot like that.
How? It measures per minute production. If someone scores 12 points in 12 minutes, it's better than 18 points in 36 minutes.
Uh huh 33 minutes compared to 36 minutes is a lot different than Meyers and Dames minute counts. C'mon dude.
Yes. I'm not saying he's totally gassed. Fatigue is gradual. Any player will be less fresh in minute 36 than in minute 1. Production tends to decrease as playing time increases. If that wasn't true, coaches would all play their best players 40+ minutes per game. BNM
I'm starting to rethink my position on this. If Dame is now consistently being considered a top-5 MVP candidate, and he continues comparable-level play through the rest of the season, then it would be tough to see how any other guards would unseat him for that spot. I personally would probably vote for Kyrie over Dame--and also think CP3 is still the superior overall player--but I think this past month has put Dame into the driver's seat for the 1st team.
does dame's contract have any bonuses for making all nba teams that might have luxury tax/payroll implications?
I doubt Kyries production is because he's playing 32mpg. Some players start hot, some end hot.. He's not ding what he's ding because he's playing "only" 32 minutes per game. 36 minutes has been shown as optimal, so 32 and 36 minutes isn't the same as 36 compared to 40 minutes. If this was Dame, this wouldn't be an argument. But since it's about Dame vs. Other PGs, people are gonna search for any way to discount other PGs.
