NBA GM Draft Discussion

Discussion in 'GM Draft 1' started by ZAE, Jul 25, 2008.

  1. Kid Chocolate

    Kid Chocolate Suspended

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    Nice pick, GM3.
     
  2. Dark Defender

    Dark Defender The Dark Passenger

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    Thanks.

    Now a week wait for my next pick.
     
  3. cpawfan

    cpawfan Monsters do exist

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (J_Ray @ Aug 4 2008, 11:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cpawfan @ Aug 4 2008, 08:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (J_Ray @ Aug 4 2008, 11:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Hey, if you want to get a sim going, how about we sign up @ XO Hoops? It's by far the best sim and it uses the actual players stats rather than ratings. It's suppose to be going public within a month or two and I know the owner. I'm sure I could talk to him about helping us set up the league with the players we take.</div>

    How does it handle defense since there are no reliable stats that measure defense?
    </div>

    I'm not quite sure where he gets the stats, but it goes off of how the difference (+/- of the eFG%) of a player when he's on and off the court. There are tons of aspects that go to each part, like DREB%, BLK%, STL%, Foul%, etc. It's more advance than all these sims that have ratings because it uses actual stats from players, and when you have too much usage (aka ballhandlers), it increases the teams' shooting percentage but it also increases turnovers. Trust me though, I've been in sims b4, and they have nothing on XO Hoops. I've been a beta tester for this site for 3 years now with Shapecity & Run BJM, and we tried to get a beta league @ old JBB but it didn't work cuz the owner went out of the country. But since he's been back for a few years now, it's back up and running smoothly. You guys can ask Shapecity or Run BJM about it if you have questions too.


    </div>

    The big problem with doing that is that players have different roles between real life and sim teams. Another problem is that young players develop at different rates depending upon their playing time. For example, a top draft pick would develop very differently if he was on the Celtics than if he was on the Grizzlies. Another example is a player that suddenly breaks out. A sim league GM shouldn't expect that player he wasn't playing to immediately have the same numbers as he has in real life.

    These problems magnify when you go from year to year with the same players.
     
  4. Real

    Real Dumb and Dumbest

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    Paul Pierce is available. PM me if interested.
     
  5. JCB

    JCB The Savage Nation

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    <div><object width="425" height="350"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/1OhCvBNgrcQ&"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/1OhCvBNgrcQ&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350" /></embed></object></div>
     
  6. J_Ray

    J_Ray JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cpawfan @ Aug 4 2008, 09:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (J_Ray @ Aug 4 2008, 11:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cpawfan @ Aug 4 2008, 08:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (J_Ray @ Aug 4 2008, 11:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Hey, if you want to get a sim going, how about we sign up @ XO Hoops? It's by far the best sim and it uses the actual players stats rather than ratings. It's suppose to be going public within a month or two and I know the owner. I'm sure I could talk to him about helping us set up the league with the players we take.</div>

    How does it handle defense since there are no reliable stats that measure defense?
    </div>

    I'm not quite sure where he gets the stats, but it goes off of how the difference (+/- of the eFG%) of a player when he's on and off the court. There are tons of aspects that go to each part, like DREB%, BLK%, STL%, Foul%, etc. It's more advance than all these sims that have ratings because it uses actual stats from players, and when you have too much usage (aka ballhandlers), it increases the teams' shooting percentage but it also increases turnovers. Trust me though, I've been in sims b4, and they have nothing on XO Hoops. I've been a beta tester for this site for 3 years now with Shapecity & Run BJM, and we tried to get a beta league @ old JBB but it didn't work cuz the owner went out of the country. But since he's been back for a few years now, it's back up and running smoothly. You guys can ask Shapecity or Run BJM about it if you have questions too.


    </div>

    The big problem with doing that is that players have different roles between real life and sim teams. Another problem is that young players develop at different rates depending upon their playing time. For example, a top draft pick would develop very differently if he was on the Celtics than if he was on the Grizzlies. Another example is a player that suddenly breaks out. A sim league GM shouldn't expect that player he wasn't playing to immediately have the same numbers as he has in real life.

    These problems magnify when you go from year to year with the same players.
    </div>


    But you take all this stuff into consideration, I've never had a problem with this stuff. Usually, if you are depending on rookies to be your team, you don't do good. It seems more realistic than a regular sim league does because it incorporates a lot more than ratings. Regular GM's have to wait usually for their rookies to develop and become consistent contributors, in a sim you can just throw someone out there and get production while in real life not all rookies are physically gifted with bodies to compete in the NBA right away. I don't see how the problems magnify going from year to year.
     
  7. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Ghotti's not around, and it's getting past my bedtime. I hate to be the guy holding things up, though I will say Barbosa was one guy I was considering.
     
  8. CelticKing

    CelticKing The Green Monster

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    This is taking too long I quit.










    j/k [​IMG] lol
     
  9. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Nevermind. Ghoti is on, I'll hang out to make my pick.
     
  10. cpawfan

    cpawfan Monsters do exist

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (J_Ray @ Aug 5 2008, 12:20 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cpawfan @ Aug 4 2008, 09:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (J_Ray @ Aug 4 2008, 11:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cpawfan @ Aug 4 2008, 08:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (J_Ray @ Aug 4 2008, 11:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Hey, if you want to get a sim going, how about we sign up @ XO Hoops? It's by far the best sim and it uses the actual players stats rather than ratings. It's suppose to be going public within a month or two and I know the owner. I'm sure I could talk to him about helping us set up the league with the players we take.</div>

    How does it handle defense since there are no reliable stats that measure defense?
    </div>

    I'm not quite sure where he gets the stats, but it goes off of how the difference (+/- of the eFG%) of a player when he's on and off the court. There are tons of aspects that go to each part, like DREB%, BLK%, STL%, Foul%, etc. It's more advance than all these sims that have ratings because it uses actual stats from players, and when you have too much usage (aka ballhandlers), it increases the teams' shooting percentage but it also increases turnovers. Trust me though, I've been in sims b4, and they have nothing on XO Hoops. I've been a beta tester for this site for 3 years now with Shapecity & Run BJM, and we tried to get a beta league @ old JBB but it didn't work cuz the owner went out of the country. But since he's been back for a few years now, it's back up and running smoothly. You guys can ask Shapecity or Run BJM about it if you have questions too.


    </div>

    The big problem with doing that is that players have different roles between real life and sim teams. Another problem is that young players develop at different rates depending upon their playing time. For example, a top draft pick would develop very differently if he was on the Celtics than if he was on the Grizzlies. Another example is a player that suddenly breaks out. A sim league GM shouldn't expect that player he wasn't playing to immediately have the same numbers as he has in real life.

    These problems magnify when you go from year to year with the same players.
    </div>


    But you take all this stuff into consideration, I've never had a problem with this stuff. Usually, if you are depending on rookies to be your team, you don't do good. It seems more realistic than a regular sim league does because it incorporates a lot more than ratings. Regular GM's have to wait usually for their rookies to develop and become consistent contributors, in a sim you can just throw someone out there and get production while in real life not all rookies are physically gifted with bodies to compete in the NBA right away. I don't see how the problems magnify going from year to year.
    </div>

    The way it magnifies is if on a sim team you if had Durant and didn't play him more than 5 MPG on your sim team as a rookie. That second season, you'll look at what he did IRL and go, I should play him more. In sim world, Durant can't be the same player he is in the real world because he didn't play. In year 2, you already have a disconnect from reality (the stats you are using) and that is just 1 player. Spread that across 14 players per 30 teams and you have real problems going year to year.
     
  11. cpawfan

    cpawfan Monsters do exist

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    Interesting pick JCB.

    I figured Kenyon would last longer
     
  12. JFizzleRaider

    JFizzleRaider Yeast Lords Global Moderator

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cpawfan @ Aug 5 2008, 12:43 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Interesting pick JCB.

    I figured Kenyon would last longer</div>

    me too.
     
  13. zєяσ

    zєяσ Truth is beautiful

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Aug 5 2008, 12:42 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Nevermind. Ghoti is on, I'll hang out to make my pick.</div>
    I hate when that happens to me. Hate staying up due to the 4hr limit.
     
  14. DynastYWarrioR6

    DynastYWarrioR6 JBB SmurfY

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    damnit I wanted Al.
     
  15. JCB

    JCB The Savage Nation

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cpawfan @ Aug 5 2008, 01:43 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Interesting pick JCB.

    I figured Kenyon would last longer</div>

    That's why I wanted to trade down, but nothing that was proposed was worth it. I'm well aware it's a little too high for Kenyon, but at this juncture of the draft, I'm okay with it.

    I had two options: either pick-up a true center and keep Pau at PF, or pick-up a defensive minded-athletic PF and shift Pau to C. I chose the latter because I'm trying to build and team that can excel in either the half-court or the fast-break. All four of the guys I have are good at running the floor and run in the open court very well. And I definitely intend to pick up a point that can successfully lead the break. But at the same time, both Butler and Pau can score in the half-court quite well, so I can excel in either style of play.

    I also wanted to get someone who can make defenses pay for doubling Pau down low or for doubling Butler when he drives. As I said before, Butler loves to attack the rim and defenses will be forced to collapse to stop him. And when they do, he can kick it to Parker for an open three, or dump it down to Kenyon for a thunderous finish depending on how the D rotates.

    I'm also trying to keep defense in mind. Now, Parker can handle the opposing teams most talented wing player and Kenyon can handle their most talented interior big. Butler is an above average, physical defender and Pau is average, so as of now, I don't really have any defensive liabilities, IMO.

    Also, I'm not at all worried about his knee(s). Kenyon's production actually improved over the course of last year, culminating in scoring averages of 14.5 ppg on 57.6% shooting and 15.1 ppg on 58.7% shooting in February and March, respectively. So, he can definitely play successfully for an entire season (played 72 games last year) and can endure the grind that comes with it.

    The pick just made sense on all fronts for me. I definitely would have liked to trade down and still get him, but as I said, it was kind of like the perfect pick for me, so I couldn't pass it up. I thought long and hard about this pick, believe me.

    EDIT: Another thing I liked about Kenyon was that he didn't need the ball to be in his hands to be effective. He can excel just by cleaning up everybody's mistakes on the boards; he doesn't need to take the ball away from Butler or Pau to be effective.
     
  16. cpawfan

    cpawfan Monsters do exist

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    I'm the last person you have to sell on selecting Kenyon [​IMG]
     
  17. JCB

    JCB The Savage Nation

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cpawfan @ Aug 5 2008, 02:01 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I'm the last person you have to sell on selecting Kenyon [​IMG]</div>

    Oh, I know. [​IMG]

    I knew when I made the pick people would question it, but I have my reasonings and I figured everybody would like to hear them. I myself was sketchy about taking him for a while, but the more I think about, the happier I am.
     
  18. JCB

    JCB The Savage Nation

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    And just fwiw, David Lee was one of the guys I was thinking about taking. But I wasn't impressed with his defense, so Kenyon made much more sense.

    I also played around with the idea of trying Thornton at PF, but decided against it.

    I like those two picks.
     
  19. ghoti

    ghoti A PhD in Horribleness

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    It depends what you want.

    Kenyon has forgotten more perimeter defense than Lee will ever know.

    Both are active, explosive quick leapers who will be at the top of the league in dunks.

    Lee is the more active rebounder. He is excellent on the offensive boards.

    KMart is obviously somewhat riskier healthwise, but while he's on the court he's more reliable and less likely to make mistakes than Lee. I'd say he fits your team slightly better than Lee, but either would have been OK.
     
  20. zєяσ

    zєяσ Truth is beautiful

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    Damn you ghoti.
     

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