Please explain: what possibilities do the Blazers have to wind up with the #1 pick? #2 pick? #3 pick? Etc?
The Blazers have a 9% chance at the 1st pick. They have a 9.2% chance at the second pick, a 9.4% chance at the third, and a 9.6% chance at the fourth. So they have a 37% chance of a top four pick. The Blazers have an 8.6% chance of staying in 6th. A 29.8% chance of falling to seventh, a 20.5% of falling to 8th, and a 3.8% chance of finishing following to 9th or 10th.
Those are crazy odds! Looks likely we fall to 7th or 8th. And just as likely to get #1 as the 2nd, 3rd or 4th. And zero chance at 5th pick Thanks!
Best odds are #7 - 29.8% 2nd best is at #8 - 20.5% Then 4,3,2,1,6,9 and 10 in the order of most likely.
I'm not going to be disappointed if we get the 9th pick. 2022 seems like a deep but complicated draft class and making the right choice within the top 10 could end up being more important than having the 6th or 9th pick. Like the 2017 draft where Jason Tatum went #3 behind Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball, and Donovan Mitchell and Bam Adebayo weren't picked until #13/#14.
I expect 7th because that's the pick that we have the best odds of getting. I'll be pissed if we're 9th. I'll be fucking livid if we're 10th. I have hope that we land a top 4 because collectively we have a better shot of landing there than we do in 7th or 8th individually... obviously we have the best collective odds of landing at 7 or 8 since that's over 50% of where our odds lie. It's exciting because we only had a 5.3% chance of landing the first pick in 2007 and we have a 9% chance of landing it on Tuesday.
How do you know that he was a yes man? His actions since being promoted seem to contradict that idea as he did what NeO never was willing to - almost immediatly.
Just a little under 31 hours away and we'll have this one huge question answered. We can all be as optimistic, pessimistic or realistic as we want right now and it won't matter because the ping pong balls will do what they will and we'll end up somewhere 1-10 tomorrow (except 5). Obviously 7 is most likely, 8 comes in right after that and then it's pretty even odds on 1, 2, 3 and 4 with 6 not too far behind and 9 a little less than half as likely as 6... 10 is a one in a thousand nightmare situation but still possible. I'm going optimistic and concentrating illogically on the fact that we are more likely to land in the top 4 than end up at 7 and that we're more likely to end up in the top 4 than at 8. Yeah, I'm just treating the top 4 like it's a singular entity or probability, it's a huge statistical bias because it only accounts for 37.2% of the outcomes but I like to look at it that way anyway. The truth is that while we have the sixth worse record in the league we have a 54.1% chance that we pick after 6. Tomorrow evening we'll know what pick we have the rights to and we can all move on to being optimistic or pessimistic about what Cronin will do with it. I leave out realism because it's not realistic to think you can predict human behavior with as limited the knowledge is that we have of what Joe does when in charge.
The fact that anyone saw your post about landing at 5 and didn't laugh should be a little offensive but is also pretty funny on its own.
If we're making predictions I'll give mine... FIRST PICK!!! I think we'll get the first pick and the Rockets will get the third. They'll then offer us 3 and 17 for one. We'll take the deal. We'll move 17 for Grant. We'll take Jabari when he drops to us at 3. We'll go into the season with a starting lineup of Dame, Ant, Grant, Jabari and Nurk. For those of you who think the talent in the top 5 is too close to get the 17th pick for moving up two spots, I just have to say that I think Shaedon Sharpe is going to set himself apart at the combine and in workouts and maybe we'll just want him but the opportunity to move back and still get a guy like Jabari while landing our veteran target in Grant without giving up any future draft assets will be a dream come true.
I think I would take that bet. I am not convinced that #9 is any worse than #4 in this particular draft. So why would slipping to 9 make a difference? Either way the player will get some minutes next year but will not be starting. Got to wait another year or two for that. Tomorrow night can not come soon enough.
