What's surprising about the IBD/TIPP poll that has Romney up almost 5 percentage points is that it's D+8 (D 39%, R 31%, I 30%) http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx
In reality, most people who claim to be independents are simply teapartiers, which are simply hardline republicans.
RealClearPolitics.com moved NH (4 EV), PA (20 EV) and WI (10 EV) from "leans Obama" to tossup today. Biden had better stop the bleeding tomorrow. If Ryan has a strong performance, this sucker is going to continue to slip away from the Administration. Furthermore, it could impact downstate elections.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-politics-and-gallup-poll_654143.html Over the summer Mark Blumenthal of Huffington Post wrote a critique of Gallup’s daily presidential job approval poll. The point of which was that Gallup was over-sampling whites and thus understating President Obama’s position in the adult population. ... Alan Abramowitz of Huffington Post and The Democratic Strategist noticed that Gallup has increased its share of nonwhites from 27 percent the week of the convention to 32 percent last week, a nearly 20 percent boost. In other words, Gallup seemed to have tweaked its methodology with just weeks to go until Election Day to reflect the criticism that has come from the left. ... So, from the looks of it, the left got what it wanted: Gallup altered its methodology with a month to go until Election Day. And the result – at least on the job approval question – is a shift in Obama’s favor.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...rnout_effort_tests_obama_campaign_115743.html http://www.examiner.com/article/suf...ey-to-win-florida-virginia-and-north-carolina
Ok, so was the Suffolk pollster right to call VA, FL, and NC for Romney a month ago? Or was he a jackass? barfo
with the caveat that I don't know anything about how "normal" polllsters operate... Is it kind of stupid to do these projections when almost 50% of exitpolled voters said that events of the week before the election were the "most important" reason that they voted for who they did, and that a significant number didn't know who they were going to vote for until they got to the polls?