Looking at the schedule I see some home games coming up that are pretty tough. I also see a east coast road trip which includes the Nets and 76ers, and then a long home stand at the end of the month. By the end of that home stand on February 4th, I think we can climb back to 1 game under 500. Can we go 12-6 over the next 18 games? http://espn.go.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/por 10-8 might be more likely, or possibly 11-7.........
12-6 sounds right. We have a long stretch in there where we never play back to back games. I'm going to win my bets with HCP and UncleTy.
First of all, why the 18 games? I mean I love the optimism, but why can't you just enjoy a couple of great wins and leave it at that? I'm looking at that same schedule and see 6 MAYBE 7 wins.
Why 18? Good question. And the answer is the 18th game is at the end of a 7 game home stand. A home stand that after 51 games will even us out for home and away games. (Giving us 25 @ home 26 on the road) Right now we have played 7 less home games than road games and we are coincidentally about that may games under 500. Why is it important? Because I think 50 games is a good indicator on whether or not we can really make the playoffs. The 8th spot is up for grabs. Utah holds it and just lost Alec Brukes. Phoenix just lost Bledsoe. We may not be that good, but we are still only 1 1/2 games out. Either way I am going to enjoy it, but I want to know if we are going to get our draft pick or not. We should know much more by the end of that home stand.
I hope not....a few feel good wins would be nice but making the playoffs as a 7th or 8th seed would be a pretty big setback as ironic as it sounds.
No doubt a high draft pick would be nice, but the players don't care about the draft until well after the season is over. And I doubt Stotts wants to put his job on the line. So expect them to keep battling until it is obvious they are out of it. And with the possibility that the 8 spot could be won by a team under 500, that might be in April. The nice thing is that everyone but the Lakers still are in the hunt for that 8th spot in the west, so the season can still be interesting in terms of both the playoffs and for draft picks. There are 8 teams in the league separated by just a couple of games. If it continues to be that close, there will be a very small line between making the playoffs or getting a top 4 pick. Lets hope it stays close.
The battle for 7-8th is pretty tight in both conferences. Only difference is the east has all teams over .500 and the West is all teams under .500.... If the race is still this close in April, be prepared to see some stealth tank lineups out there. Lillard uh....he bruised his index finger. McCollum slipped on a banana peel.... Yeah....that's why we're trotting out Frazier/Montero/Harkless/Alexander/Kaman as our starting lineup....
I'm hoping there are 3 great east teams with winning record that miss the playoffs. Might finally get the competition committee to seed NBA playoffs 1-16. Not only for the bottom of the playoffs but its silly LeBron teams for the last half decade get a cake walk to the NBA finals where the West has the Warriors, Spurs, Thunder, Clippers bloodbath. Hey I'll be very happy if we make the playoffs. With all our young guys below their prime and the flexibility to also add a free agent we will be in a great position moving forward. We lose the value of one asset but increase the value of a dozen assets we already have. Sure it will suck not having a draft pick but at least we will eliminate that debt to Denver and fully own our 2017 pick. We also will gain back our own 2017+2018 second round picks that would go to Denver if we were a lottery team the next two years. Ultimately theres bonus' for and against the playoffs, theres times it works better drafting early and times it ultimately works out better drafting later and as a fan I have no control in the outcome so I'm just rooting for wins.
From what Draco wrote, that's not correct. We will lose a draft pick either way. If we make the playoffs this year, then we lost next years pick. If we dont make the playoffs, we get our pick from this year, but lose next years. A wash. Make the playoffs. Much rather have 12 up and comers on a mediocre team, than one up and comer on a cellar dwelling team.
True but not entirely true (more like just leaving some of the story out). If we miss playoffs this year and next year then we keep both 1st rounders. We would only lose a 2nd (or perhaps 2 2nds - I can't remember) in that case. Of course that means missing the playoffs 2 straight years which might be a stretch.
If Portland makes the playoffs this year, the pick goes to Denver. If they don't, they keep this years and next years has a stipulation on it too (lotto). Nuggets receive Blazers 2016 first-round pick (lottery protected in 2016 and 2017, or else 2018 Blazers or Kings 2nd round pick (less favorable) and 2019 2nd round pick.) So, if the team makes the playoffs this year they lose it. If they don't make the playoffs, they keep it, and potentially 2017 is the Nuggets (unless they miss the playoffs).
