Next Years ROY

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting DC42315:</div><div class="quote_post">I think it will be Chris Paul. I mean coming into the season he will be the best player on the team.</div>

What about J.R. Smith? He has 1 year of experiece under his belt, and he knows that New Orleans is his team, so look for him to dominate most of the time.

 

It WILL be one of these players; Bogut,Paul,D.Williams.

 

im gonna go with J-RAY on this one. Deron williams is going into a situation where he is going to start at point guard and he has guys around him like boozer,kirelenko,okur to pass the ball to who can score and get him assists. he is also taller and stronger than paul so he will get more rebounds and he will prolly score just as much as paul. Chris paul will prolly have the edge in points per game but d-will will have better overall stats and his team will make the playoffs with him being a vital key so he will win it IMO.

 

Wait a minute, there's a debate on whether it will be Chris Paul or Deron Williams, yet Andrew Bogut is hardly mentioned? What's wrong with that picture?

Fans seem to think that he was just picked because of his height, but they ignore the fact that he did very well against Tim Duncan in the Olympics and was the NCAA Player of the Year.

Fans also seem to think that he is not as athletic as the other top prospects, but they ignore the fact that his vertical is higher than that players like Antoine Wright, Julius Hodge, and Monta Ellis, as well as only about an inch lower than Marvin Williams'.

To me, this pick is as simple as it gets. Bogut is going into a situation in Milwaukee where he will be the #1 offensive option (or #2 if they resign Michael Redd). He's going to a situation where, if Redd is resigned, he can be part of the deadliest inside-out attack in the NBA (like a poorman's Kobe and Shaq). You know he'll get a lot of rebounds too playing in the East, which is still a weak conference upfront outside of Shaq.

Just someone, anyone, tell me why Bogut shouldn't be the favorite right now? He's the #1 pick. If he wasn't the obvious favorite for the Rookie of the Year, don't you think the Bucks would have drafted someone else?

Here's my projected All-Rookie team as of July 5th -

C - Andrew Bogut - As my pick for Rookie of the Year, this pick was easy to make. I think Channing Frye will have a decent year as a starter for the Knicks, but he's nowhere near Bogut's level.
F - Danny Granger - The problem with this pick is that the best Power Forwards in the draft (May, Vazquez, Villanueva, and Diogu) all went to teams where they'll likely be backups for this next year, so I had to pick a Small Forward. If Charlotte plays Okafor at Center and starts May or if Granger doesn't start for Indiana, then May is probably my pick here.
F - Marvin Williams - So what if the Hawks are stacked with Small Forwards? You have to think that they'll make room for their #2 draft pick. I expect him to start and see the team try to make him their go-to-guy right off the bat, although I personally think he's a few years away from being the go-to-guy on any NBA team but the Hawks.
G - Rashad McCants - With the Trailblazers saying that they're going to bench Martell Webster next year and the Celtics unlikely to start Green, that limits my choices down to Julius Hodge and Rashad McCants as the only two Shooting Guards with a high chance to start, and McCants gets the nod as the more talented player.
G - Deron Williams - I never thought there was a question as to who was the most talented Point Guard in the draft. As J_Ray has been saying, he'll play a very big role for the Jazz next season, so he should be putting up the numbers to warrant a first team selection.

 

I think Bogut will be the Rookie of the Year. He is mature can contribute righgt away and does not have to fight for minutes. If Redd sticks around it will help because the opposition cannot double him as he is a great passer. If Marvin Williams can get court time he will impress. I think both Felton and Deron Williams will be dark horses. They will step in and play good minutes straight away and get to run their respective teams. I think alot will depend on what the teams look like after the free agent period but for now, I am sticking with Bogut with the others as dark horses.

 

Luther Head, HAHAHA just kidding.

I would say Andrew Bogut because of the big role he wil play in the Bucks. D-Will will also play a big role, but in the NCAA, Bogut has proven he is the best rookie.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">If they didn't want to go anywhere, why would they be wanting to sign old players like Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Damon Stoudamire? They want to win this year, no team except the Clippers(who have changed their mind lately) wants to lose. Then their coach, Mike Woodson, wants his job and isn't planning to lose it soon. Marvin Williams won't play as much as people think they will, because he's couldn't even start over a player that wasn't even drafted in Juwad Williams. Marvin Williams is a player, that got drafted so high because of his sky-high potential. Then he won't get that many minutes because they drafted two players that practically play the SF, cuz Josh Smith either plays PF or SF. Al Harrington plays which ever one that Smith isn't playing. Then Childress will sub in at SF. Then they will sign a free agent too most likely.</div>
You can't give the fans the feeling that you don't want to go anywhere, so they'll have to put the effort out there. Realistically no good older players are going to sign with ATL unless they really want money because ATL doesn't give them a chance to win. Atlanta is not stupid, they know they're not going to make the playoffs and will still be in the bottom of the league, and will try very hard to give Marvin minutes because he is their future.

Josh Childress plays SG, Smith plays SF, and Harrington PF. Let's say Harrington plays about 34 MPG, and Smith about 32 MPG, that's 30 minutes left for the backup at both positions which is what Williams will be, he won't get all 30 minutes, but they'll likely also use some small lineups with him or Harrington at C, he should get 20+ MPG.


<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Chris Paul might get 15 points a game, but MR. Wade proved my point, They'll put double teams on Paul and Smith because of lack of talent they have. So, if you shut down those 2 you win. Emeka Okafor was a no doubter he was going to win ROY because he is so composed and intelligent. Paul is a undersized PG too, so it will be hard for him to score against smaller PG's. As for Okafor being on a Expansion team, they couldn't get worse because their previous record was 0-0, so they improved by winning the 10+ games they did win. Also, which top rookie's team improved so much because of the incoming rookie? Tell me, Howard wasn't what you expect, Ben Gordon was the next thing to helping his team, but he didn't do everything for his team. Livingston and Harris were just 2 players that contributed rookie numbers, Iguodala didn't really help his team, it was Iverson who carried them. Okafor was the clear shot favorite.</div>
I'm not sure about this. The Hornets might not be a great team, but Paul and Smith isn't all they have. Did we forget Jamaal Magloire the 14-10 center? They are not great offensively, but they do have some players who can put the ball in the basket. PJ Brown is great on the pick and roll with his mid-range jumper, and Lee Nailon though a terrible defender can definately score the ball, it's not going to be nearly [not even close] as bad as you're making it seem.


I also agree with what Voodoo Child is saying, I think everyone should be mentioning Bogut. He will definately be starting on the Bucks, and I can see him possibly putting up a double double, numbers close to what Emeka had this year but a better FG%. If they keep Redd, he'll be the third option on the team after Redd and Mason, and if they don't, he'll be the 2nd after Mason, though that will make them a very weak team.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting og15:</div><div class="quote_post">You can't give the fans the feeling that you don't want to go anywhere, so they'll have to put the effort out there. Realistically no good older players are going to sign with ATL unless they really want money because ATL doesn't give them a chance to win. Atlanta is not stupid, they know they're not going to make the playoffs and will still be in the bottom of the league, and will try very hard to give Marvin minutes because he is their future.</div>
Wow, they are located in a pretty big city, and they only get a 1,000 people to a game. They want to go somewhere, they will get free agents so they can at least improve their record. NO team wants to be worse than the Bobcats, or the Hornets, Atlanta has to be getting tired of all their losing seasons. I know Bulldawg has to be getting tired of ATL losing, because their his hometown team and he gets a lot of their games. Other wise their fans are starting to not like them anymore, so they have to hurry up and get better fast. Then you pointed out for me, Marvin Williams is their future. They drafted him because of his sky-high potential, that potential will take awhile to develop.

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Josh Childress plays SG, Smith plays SF, and Harrington PF. Let's say Harrington plays about 34 MPG, and Smith about 32 MPG, that's 30 minutes left for the backup at both positions which is what Williams will be, he won't get all 30 minutes, but they'll likely also use some small lineups with him or Harrington at C, he should get 20+ MPG.</div>

So your saying Marvin Williams is going to play PF. If he's going to play PF, he need to bulk up seriously. Look at some of the bulked up PFs in the league, Boozer, Sweetney, Brand, C-Webb, and plenty more. He will just get shoved around and backed down. So why would you hurt the delicate self asteam of the future of your franchise, when a lot of rookies get down on themselves, they can ruin their career.


<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">I'm not sure about this. The Hornets might not be a great team, but Paul and Smith isn't all they have. Did we forget Jamaal Magloire the 14-10 center? They are not great offensively, but they do have some players who can put the ball in the basket. PJ Brown is great on the pick and roll with his mid-range jumper, and Lee Nailon though a terrible defender can definately score the ball, it's not going to be nearly [not even close] as bad as you're making it seem.</div>

Just too bad they won't have Magloire, Magloire wants out, he will most likely be gone by the time training camp roles around. So don't look forward for that 14-10 you mentioned. Then P.J. Brown is old and will start going downhilll from this point. He isn't the same player he was on Miami a couple years ago. Then Nailon won't see the ball much either, so don't look forward for him being on the floor if he can't play D

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">I also agree with what Voodoo Child is saying, I think everyone should be mentioning Bogut. He will definately be starting on the Bucks, and I can see him possibly putting up a double double, numbers close to what Emeka had this year but a better FG%. If they keep Redd, he'll be the third option on the team after Redd and Mason, and if they don't, he'll be the 2nd after Mason, though that will make them a very weak team.</div>

I agree with VC too that Bogut can have double-doubles but what if another player has stats like 12 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists. Deron Williams is capable of those kind of stats. He could potentially have some triple-doubles this year. He will be a leader of the Utah Jazz. Sloan will have better overall talent this year to play his style of Ball that was so successful in the Mid-90's.

 

I think chris pauls going to win it hes going to get a lot of shots on that team.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Just too bad they won't have Magloire, Magloire wants out, he will most likely be gone by the time training camp roles around. So don't look forward for that 14-10 you mentioned.</div>

And you don't think they'll get a player for Magloire in return?

I don't understand why you seem to think that Williams is likely to get 12 ppg, 6 rpg, and 6 apg. Only three rookies put up more than 12 ppg this past season, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon, and Dwight Howard. Only four rookies put up more than 6 rpg this past season, Emeka Okafor, Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, and Josh Childress (notice none of them are PG's?). No rookies put up 6 apg last season. In fact, the highest apg was Chris Duhon's 4.9 apg which was followed by Sebastian Telfair's 3.3 apg. So looking at those statistics, I think that your dream scenario is just that, a dream.

I mean, with the uncertainty surrounding T.J. Ford's injury leading up to the draft, the Bucks needed a Point Guard. If Deron Williams was such an obvious Rookie of the Year, shouldn't he be in a Bucks uniform right now? Too many fans are just plain dilusional about Andrew Bogut's talent level. I fully expect that he will be able to give you Emeka Okafor numbers next season (15/11), and Bogut is a more complete offensive player, so I can even see him getting better numbers. There's no reason you should doubt the #1 pick. He's not a "project". He's not going to a team where he won't be an important offensive option. He's not a stiff. He's the best rookie in the NBA.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Voodoo Child:</div><div class="quote_post">And you don't think they'll get a player for Magloire in return?

I don't understand why you seem to think that Williams is likely to get 14 ppg, 6 rpg, and 6 apg. Only three rookies put up more than 14 ppg this past season, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon, and Dwight Howard. Only four rookies put up more than 6 rpg this past season, Emeka Okafor, Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, and Josh Childress (notice none of them are PG's?). No rookies put up 6 apg last season. In fact, the highest apg was Chris Duhon's 4.9 apg which was followed by Sebastian Telfair's 3.3 apg. So looking at those statistics, I think that your dream scenario is just that, a dream.

I mean, with the uncertainty surrounding T.J. Ford's injury leading up to the draft, the Bucks needed a Point Guard. If Deron Williams was such an obvious Rookie of the Year, shouldn't he be in a Bucks uniform right now? Too many fans are just plain dilusional about Andrew Bogut's talent level. I full expect that he will be able to give you Emeka Okafor numbers next season (15/11), and Bogut is a more complete offensive player, so I can even see him getting better numbers. There's no reason you should doubt the #1 pick. He's not a "project". He's not going to a team where he won't be an important offensive option. He's not a stiff. He's the best rookie in the NBA.</div>

I always hate arguments against VC because he always dig up these facts, but none of those PG's started last year. and I recall I said 12 points, not 14. So I think D-Will can get more than 4.9 assists, because Utah does a lot of Pick n Rolls for the Point guard, then he also got 3 capable scorers to pass to. I actually don't think he'll get 6 rebound everygame, but he'll get quite a few.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting J_Ray:</div><div class="quote_post">I always hate arguments against VC because he always dig up these facts, but none of those PG's started last year. and I recall I said 12 points, not 14. So I think D-Will can get more than 4.9 assists, because Utah does a lot of Pick n Rolls for the Point guard, then he also got 3 capable scorers to pass to. I actually don't think he'll get 6 rebound everygame, but he'll get quite a few.</div>

Thanks for the compliment.

First of all, Chris Duhon started 73 games last year, and Sebastian Telfair started 26. Second of all, I just made a typo when I wrote 14, but the statistic still holds true; only three rookies put up more than 12 ppg last year. I can buy into Deron Williams getting around 6 apg next year. As a Point Guard in his situation, it's realistic. It's the rebounds that I had a hard time with, and the points just seemed a tad bit off. In my opinion, a realistic line for him would probably be 10-11 pts, 2-3 rbs, and 5-6 asts. Those are some solid numbers and not terribly different from the ones you posted, but if Andrew Bogut puts up the numbers that he's expected to, then you have to give him the Rookie of the Year over Deron. You also have to consider that Milwaukee should be better than Utah next season. No disrespect to Utah, but they're a year or two away from making the playoffs again, whereas Milwaukee could resign Michael Redd and instantly be in the playoff mix.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Voodoo Child:</div><div class="quote_post">Thanks for the compliment.

First of all, Chris Duhon started 73 games last year, and Sebastian Telfair started 26. Second of all, I just made a typo when I wrote 14, but the statistic still holds true; only three rookies put up more than 12 ppg last year. I can buy into Deron Williams getting around 6 apg next year. As a Point Guard in his situation, it's realistic. It's the rebounds that I had a hard time with, and the points just seemed a tad bit off. In my opinion, a realistic line for him would probably be 10-11 pts, 2-3 rbs, and 5-6 asts. Those are some solid numbers and not terribly different from the ones you posted, but if Andrew Bogut puts up the numbers that he's expected to, then you have to give him the Rookie of the Year over Deron. You also have to consider that Milwaukee should be better than Utah next season. No disrespect to Utah, but they're a year or two away from making the playoffs again, whereas Milwaukee could resign Michael Redd and instantly be in the playoff mix.</div>

So Utah isn't a playoff caliber team with a signing of a Willie Green or a Steven Hunter? Utah would have made the playoffs last year if they stayed healthy. Then if you add a real Back-up center, like Hunter then your rotation just got better. Even you said there back-up centers sucked. Then Milwaukee needs something more than Utah does. Milwaukee was almost completely healthy last year 'cept for Ford. Utah will also be mesh together better with Boozer, and Okur already famililar with 1 year under their belt with Jerry Sloan.

By the way, Stromile Swift is most likely gonna be gone, what bout Hakim Warrick for the ROY? LOL Can't wait to hear your answer for this.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting J_Ray:</div><div class="quote_post">So Utah isn't a playoff caliber team with a signing of a Willie Green or a Steven Hunter? Utah would have made the playoffs last year if they stayed healthy. Then if you add a real Back-up center, like Hunter then your rotation just got better. Even you said there back-up centers sucked. Then Milwaukee needs something more than Utah does. Milwaukee was almost completely healthy last year 'cept for Ford. Utah will also be mesh together better with Boozer, and Okur already famililar with 1 year under their belt with Jerry Sloan.

By the way, Stromile Swift is most likely gonna be gone, what bout Hakim Warrick for the ROY? LOL Can't wait to hear your answer for this.</div>

Yes, you add Willie Green and all of a sudden you go from one of the worst records in the league to the playoffs. If only it were that simple. The Jazz will be solid next year, but solid doesn't cut it in the West. I don't even think they'll be better than the Warriors or the Clippers next season; two teams who also didn't make the playoffs last year. You act like Milwaukee adding Andrew Bogut and T.J. Ford is a very minor development, but if you put those two onto any team in the NBA, I think it'd automatically put them in the playoff picture. Bottom line is, Utah is not one of the eight best teams in the West.

As for the Grizzlies, Swift leaving has absolutely nothing to do with Hakim Warrick. Stromile Swift was a Center for the Grizzlies, and Hakim Warrick will be expected to play Power Forward or Small Forward. He'll be benching behind either Pau Gasol and Brian Cardinal or Shane Battier and Dahntay Jones, so I don't even see him making the rookie team.

 

I can't believe so many of you are leaving out Andrew Bogut. The kid was the 1st pick in the whole draft but yet no one is talking about. He was by the most NBA ready player in the draft because of his experience overseas where he went up against NBA players and did a heck of a job(averaged 14 pts, 8 boards,1 block). Bogut averaged a double-double the pas season(20 pts, 12 reb) which was 2nd best in the nation and also led the division 1 in double-doubles with 26. I really feel that Bogut is going average somewhere around 15 pts and 8 boards this season, and will win rookie of the year easily.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Voodoo Child:</div><div class="quote_post">Yes, you add Willie Green and all of a sudden you go from one of the worst records in the league to the playoffs. If only it were that simple. The Jazz will be solid next year, but solid doesn't cut it in the West. I don't even think they'll be better than the Warriors or the Clippers next season; two teams who also didn't make the playoffs last year. You act like Milwaukee adding Andrew Bogut and T.J. Ford is a very minor development, but if you put those two onto any team in the NBA, I think it'd automatically put them in the playoff picture. Bottom line is, Utah is not one of the eight best teams in the West.

As for the Grizzlies, Swift leaving has absolutely nothing to do with Hakim Warrick. Stromile Swift was a Center for the Grizzlies, and Hakim Warrick will be expected to play Power Forward or Small Forward. He'll be benching behind either Pau Gasol and Brian Cardinal or Shane Battier and Dahntay Jones, so I don't even see him making the rookie team.</div>

Wow, I can't believe you, Memphis barely got that 8 seed last year, what was their record? 45-37, They will lose some key parts of last years team if they trade all those that want out, they will get worse. What make you so sure they won't be in the playoffs next year? Utah can get a lot of wins if they're healthy. Look at the quality teams they beat when they were healthy, Seattle, Suns and Spurs without Kirilenko. I'm running short of time so I couldn't list all of their wins, but Utah will be as good as Memphis was last year.

 

I thknk its between Garcia and Paul. If Fransisco starts then he has a very good chance at winning it. However, Paul has a good chance at winning it as well.

 

Bogut, most likely candidate in my mind. I also like Paul - one of the players I enjoyed watching this year; I think he can do a good job for the Hornets. Deron Williams isn't a bad pick altogether, but his role on the Jazz won't be comparable to that of Bogut on the Bucks, and Paul on the Hornets, to a lesser extent.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting J_Ray:</div><div class="quote_post">Wow, I can't believe you, Memphis barely got that 8 seed last year, what was their record? 45-37, They will lose some key parts of last years team if they trade all those that want out, they will get worse. What make you so sure they won't be in the playoffs next year? Utah can get a lot of wins if they're healthy. Look at the quality teams they beat when they were healthy, Seattle, Suns and Spurs without Kirilenko. I'm running short of time so I couldn't list all of their wins, but Utah will be as good as Memphis was last year.</div>

I don't understand your point about Memphis. 45-37 is one hell of a record. The Jazz were 26-56 last season, so expecting them to duplicate the Grizzlies' success is expecting a lot. I realize the Jazz were an injury plagued team last season, and nothing makes me "so sure they won't be in the playoffs next year". It's really unpredictable. However, it's the logical assumption. It's not like all they have to do to get the #8 seed is have a better record than the Grizzlies. They have to have a better record than the Warriors, Clippers, Lakers, and Blazers; all teams who look just as strong, if not stronger, on paper. Anyway, that's completely off-topic. The question here is who will be Rookie of the Year, and the fact that I believe that Milwaukee will win more games than Utah this season is just a side point. Really, I think Andrew Bogut will win Rookie of the Year over the Jazz even if the Jazz win 15 more games, because at the end of the day, Bogut is simply the better player.