Nine trade involving T.B and why T.B. is valuable

courtesy of basktballboards
Many Timberwolves fans look at their team's payroll, their lack of cap space, their lack of a decent first round pick, and they wonder, "How in the WORLD can we EVER get out of the first round with our current roster?" What these fans do not realize is that the KEY to getting out of the first round is right there in front of their faces: TERRELL BRANDON. Minnesota can get more than you think for Brandon in a trade. That's right, you heard me right. Minnesota can get a good player or two for Terrell Brandon, a guy who will never play another game in the NBA. Minnesota can use T.B. to trade for that missing piece to the second round puzzle.

First of all, why is Terrell Brandon worth ANYTHING? Why would a team want to trade anything remotely valuable for a guy who will never play another minute in the NBA? Here's why, take a look at this link from the great Larry Coon's website:

http://www.members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#50

If you're too lazy to click on this link and read through Mr. Coon's Q&A #50, here's how it works. The last time that T.B. touched the floor in the NBA was in February 2002. Exactly TWO FULL YEARS after an injured player last touched the floor in the NBA, whoever has him on their roster can ask a league-appointed doctor to look him over and determine whether or not he is physically able to play. If that doctor determines that T.B. is NOT physically able to play--and, trust me, that is exactly what the doctor will find, because T.B. is essentially retired because of injuries--THEN what HAPPENS is that the league does not include T.B.'s contract when they calculate the luxury tax.

IN OTHER WORDS, T.B.'s $11.1 mil 2003-04 contract does NOT count for luxury tax purposes.

The "luxury tax threshold" is right at $51-$52 mil. If a team goes ABOVE this threshold, then they have to pay the luxury tax. If they stay BELOW this threshold, they do NOT have to pay the luxury tax. The difference between a $51 mil payroll and a $53 mil payroll is NOT $2 mil. It is closer to $15 mil. If a team stays UNDER the luxury tax threshold, then that team gets a percentage of the luxury tax reimbursement money, which should be in the neighborhood of $12 mil (this is a guess on my part; NCBullsFan can give us more exact figures if he feels like it, he understands this stuff better than anybody); if a team goes OVER the luxury tax threshold, then they do NOT get this reimbursement money.

FURTHERMORE, once their payroll moves a few million OVER this threshold, they have to start paying a dollar-for-dollar luxury tax penalty for their payroll. This is why teams are so adamant about keeping their payroll under $51-$52 mil. This is why Toronto did not even ATTEMPT to re-sign Keon Clark last summer. This is why Milwaukee traded Ray Allen and a low lottery pick for Desmond Mason (they will let Gary Payton walk this summer, you watch). This is why Orlando traded Don Reid and a future high lottery pick (a 2005 or 2006 Clippers first round pick) for a second round pick. Teams want to avoid the luxury tax DESPERATELY. Teams that are right around the threshold will do WHATEVER IT TAKES to get below that threshold. And shrewd teams will take advantage of these desperate teams.

Any team that has a payroll that is anywhere near the luxury tax threshold (again, $51-$52 mil) will do WHATEVER IT TAKES to keep that payroll UNDER the threshold. Trading some pretty worthwhile players with undesirable long-term contracts for Terrell Brandon is SUDDENLY a REALLY GOOD IDEA. Why? I'll give you an example. Let's say a team has a $60 mil payroll. That team is DEFINITELY looking at paying the luxury tax. Not only does that team miss out on that luxury tax reimbursement money (i.e., the total luxury tax money spent on teams with bloated payrolls that is re-distributed to teams that are UNDER that luxury tax threshold) but that team also has to PAY the luxury tax. We're talking about a TON OF MONEY here, over $20-$25 mil IN ONE SEASON.

HOWEVER, if that team were to trade $10-$11 mil in salaries for Terrell Brandon, SUDDENLY, that team goes from being WELL ABOVE THE LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD to WELL BELOW the luxury tax threshold. That team's taxable payroll drops from $60 mil to $49 mil. That team saves itself around $25 mil IN ONE SEASON. $25 mil is obviously a ton of money, so every single team in this situation (i.e., just below, at, or just above the threshold) will be interested in trading for Terrell Brandon.

Keep in mind that an injured player like Brandon has been insured. Insurance is going to pay for a large chunk of his remaining contract. So NOT ONLY does a team that trades for T.B. get to maybe avoid the luxury tax, but that team ALSO could very well get around 80% of T.B.'s remaining contract paid for by insurance.

In other words, the team that trades superfluous payroll for Terrell Brandon could save themselves TENS OF MILLIONS of dollars. This is why T.B. is worth more than you think.

I have looked at all the teams in the league whose payroll is right around the luxury tax threshold. I have looked at teams that could REALLY BENEFIT by trading unwanted salaries for T.B. I have come up with NINE TRADES involving T.B. The FIRST trade is, as you will see, OBVIOUSLY the BEST trade for Minnesota, but there is a chance that it will fall through.

Why would Minnesota want to trade T.B.? In other words, if T.B. is so damn valuable, why doesn't Minnesota just hold onto the guy? Because their star player, Kevin Garnett, will be DEMANDING management to make a MAJOR MOVE this summer. He is SICK of losing in the first round EVERY SINGLE SEASON because his supporting cast sucks. The best asset that Minnesota can offer (besides KG himself, and Wally World, who the team would like to hold onto, and Radoslav Nesterovic, who the team would also like to hold onto, and Troy Hudson, who the team would ALSO like to hold onto) is TERRELL BRANDON because of what he means from a luxury tax perspective. If Minnesota gets better this summer, it will not be because of a low first round draft pick. It will be either because of a) free agency, trade, or c) both. PREFERABLY BOTH. And, since T.B. is their #1 tradable asset, the best way for this team to improve via trade is by trading T.B.

Here is THE BEST way for Minnesota to get MAXIMUM RETURN for T.B.:

Idea #1. Terrell Brandon TO MILWAUKEE FOR Gary Payton (sign-and-trade) and Jason Caffey (two years remaining).

The Bucks are JUST BELOW the luxury tax threshold if they let GP walk, their payroll will be right around $51 mil. At the moment, they totally cannot pull off a sign-and-trade involving GP in which they get equal salaries in return, salaries of players WHO ARE ACTUALLY PLAYING, that is. If they do, then they cannot possibly avoid staying under the threshold. The only way that they move GP in a sign-and-trade is if they either a) ship him to a team with a pretty significant amount of cap room or ship him to Minnesota for T.B. AND, since teams with cap room do not HAVE to work out a sign-and-trade if they want GP--they can just go sign him themselves--then Minnesota makes a ton of sense for GP.

I think GP will sign with San Antonio if the Spurs want him. The other teams with cap room are the Jazz, the Heat, the Clips, and the Nuggets. I cannot imagine that he would be interested in signing with the Clips or the Nuggets. The Heat don't have much cap room (they only have about $6 mil to play around with), plus Miami sucks, plus Miami is literally as far away from GP's beloved Pacific Northwest as you can possibly get, so I wouldn't consider the Heat an option, either.

Utah? Well, I think most of us are more or less taking it for granted that the Jazz will replace John Stockton with Andre Miller, not Gary Payton. We may be wrong, but I don't think so.

That leaves San Antonio and Minnesota vying for GP's services. GP will probably WANT to sign with the Spurs. But the Bucks will want to work out a deal with Minnesota, so they can get rid of Jason Caffey's contract and so they get comfortably under the luxury tax threshold (from $51 mil to around $46-$47 mil). Presently, the Bucks cannot even afford to sign their first round pick (#14 overall) without crossing the threshold. Milwaukee will be all about trying to make this deal happen. So will Minnesota. It really boils down to whether GP wants to play for the best team in the NBA (San Antonio) or the fifth-best team in the NBA (Minnesota). It also boils down to whether the Spurs want him. They might not! Keep your fingers crossed, Timberwolves fans!

Here are the other eight trades involving T.B., enjoy:

Idea #2. Terrell Brandon and Marc Jackson (four years remaining on his contract) TO INDIANA FOR Brad Miller (re-signed) and Austin Croshere (nauseating longterm contract). Indiana does this trade because a) they weren't planning on re-signing Brad Miller ANYWAY so as to avoid the luxury tax and they get rid of Croshere's terrible contract. Packaging Miller with Croshere for T.B. gets this team several million dollars under the luxury tax threshold, and it rids them of Croshere's contract once and for all. Indiana can either a) let Brad Miller walk, avoid the luxury tax penalty, and continue to be stuck with Croshere's contract, or trade Miller to Minnesota, avoid the luxury tax penalty, and be FOREVER FREED from Croshere's contract. In both (a) and (, Indiana loses Brad Miller and avoids the luxury tax penalty, but only ( allows Indiana to rid themselves of Croshere's contract forever and ever. Indiana would do this deal, trust me.

Idea #3. Terrell Brandon and Joe Smith (four years remaining on his fairly large contract) TO TORONTO FOR Antonio Davis (3-4 years remaining on a bloated max contract) and Lamond Murray (three years remaining). Toronto not only stays under the luxury tax threshold BUT ALSO they can actually add a few million to their payroll this summer (via free agency) and REMAIN under the threshold by making this deal. By standing pat, Toronto CANNOT add payroll via free agency this summer. Toronto desperately wants to reduce their salary cap-luxury tax number in the worst way. Great trade for Toronto, getting rid of both of these two terrible contracts is a major accomplishment.

Idea #4. Terrell Brandon TO CHICAGO FOR Donyell Marshall and Eddie Robinson (four years remaining). Chicago is closer to the luxury tax threshold than Bulls fans think. The Bulls cannot sign Juwanna Man Howard (or use their full MLE in any other way) this summer without exceeding the threshold. Sure, they lose the reasonably priced and incredibly productive Donyell Marshall, but the Bulls no longer have to worry about E-Rob's terrible contract ever again. And the Bulls can replace Marshall with Juwanna Man (full MLE) without having to worry about the luxury tax. Great trade for Chicago. Chicago is essentially trading Donyell Marshall and Eddie Robinson for Juwanna Man Howard. IF Howard signs with Chicago. I think that, all things being equal, Howard signs with Chicago, because a) he is FROM Chicago and his Fab Five teammate (Jalen Rose) plays for Chicago.

Idea #5. Terrell Brandon TO ATLANTA FOR either Glenn Robinson or Theo Ratliff. If Atlanta does this deal, they get below the threshold. If not, they stay above the threshold. Cut and dry. Great trade for Atlanta, this deal saves that team so much money IN ONE SEASON, it's ridiculous! Of course, if they re-sign Jason Terry, they are right back above the threshold again. The Hawks are more likely to work out a whopper with the Knicks this summer, actually.

Idea #6. Terrell Brandon TO SEATTLE FOR Brent Barry, Calvin Booth (four years remaining), and Vladimir Radmanovic. Barry and Radmanovic is maybe the best package that we've seen so far here. The Sonics would be able to sign Juwanna Man Howard (who they want very much) at the full MLE after this trade and STILL be quite a ways away from having to worry about the luxury tax. HOWEVER, the Sonics will see if they can trade away Radmanovic and Booth (or Vitaly Potapenko) WITHOUT having to give up Brent Barry BEFORE they even CONSIDER this deal for T.B. This trade is the best trade listed here from Minnesota's perspective, BUT it is also the least likely BECAUSE Seattle will be reluctant to make this move.

Idea #7. Terrell Brandon TO MEMPHIS FOR Lorenzen Wright and Stromile Swift. Again, if Memphis makes this deal, they get below the luxury tax threshold. If not, they don't. Cut and dry. Because of Swift's "upside," this deal may be our best bet. I'm not sure if any of the other packages really top this deal, at least not from Minnesota's perspective, anyway. Seattle's offer may be better, but Memphis is more likely to pull the trigger on this deal than Seattle will be on their deal.

Idea #8. Terrell Brandon TO PORTLAND FOR Derek Anderson (four years remaining) and Jeff McInnis (two years remaining). Paul Allen is, I think, pretty serious about rebuilding this Blazers team and reducing payroll. This deal saves Portland at LEAST $60 mil, probably closer to $70 mil. TON OF MONEY.

Idea #9. Terrell Brandon TO HOUSTON FOR Kelvin Cato (four years remaining, I believe) and Moochie Norris (3-4 years remaining). Houston stays above the threshold if they do NOT make this move, they get below it if they DO make this move. Cut and dry. Great trade for Houston. Dumping the salary of either Cato or Maurice Taylor is a MUST for Houston.

IN ANY EVENT, some of these trades seem ridiculous FROM A BASKETBALL STANDPOINT, but you GOTTA understand the financial rationale behind these moves. You GOTTA appreciate just how desperately teams want to avoid the luxury tax. In many of these instances, acquiring Terrell Brandon is THE DIFFERENCE between paying and not paying the luxury tax. That's why this guy is worth more than you think he is.

SO, in return for T.B., Minnesota fans can either expect a C (Brad Miller, Antonio Davis, Theo Ratliff, Lorenzen Wright, Kelvin Cato), a scorer (Glenn Robinson, Vladimir Radmanovic, Donyell Marshall), veteran backcourt help (Derek Anderson and Jeff McInnis, Brent Barry), OR a top prospect (Stromile Swift). I don't know which package makes the most sense for Minnesota, I really don't, but the point here is that all eight packages here makes sense for the teams that are wanting to do business with Minnesota. Do NOT underestimate Terrell Brandon's value. He is THE KEY to getting under the luxury tax threshold this summer for many teams (because of the circumstances regarding his injury). KG will DEMAND that the team make a move. Look for T.B. to get shipped off this summer, very possibly for one of the eight packages listed here. The fans of the team that trades for T.B. will, of course, be left scratching their heads, because the vast majority of sports fans are not interested in thinking about payroll issues. But smart Basketballboards.net fans will know what is going on.

BY THE WAY, these eight trades are in order from MOST LIKELY to LEAST LIKELY. Those first two trades--the one with Indy for Brad Miller and Austin Croshere, and the one with Toronto for Antonio Davis and Lamond Murray--make the most sense to me, way more sense than any of the other six trades. Indy fans should not underestimate how much Austin Croshere's contract is TOTALLY KILLING THEM. Same deal with Toronto, that team has ANY NUMBER of terrible contracts on their payroll, and Antonio Davis' contract is THE WORST! HOWEVER, either Miller or Davis could be seen as the missing piece to Minnesota's second (or third!) round puzzle, either player could be seen as a legit #3 scoring option (behind KG and Wally World). Miller is way younger and way less injury-prone than Davis, so I got to think that this Indy trade makes the most sense here.

IN ANY EVENT, look for Minnesota to make a weird trade this summer involving Terrell Brandon. And, when your non-Basketballboards.net NBA fan friends ask you, "What was the DEAL with that retarded Terrell Brandon trade, dude?", you will be able to answer that question!

 

Idea #3. Terrell Brandon and Joe Smith (four years remaining on his fairly large contract) TO TORONTO FOR Antonio Davis (3-4 years remaining on a bloated max contract) and Lamond Murray (three years remaining). Toronto not only stays under the luxury tax threshold BUT ALSO they can actually add a few million to their payroll this summer (via free agency) and REMAIN under the threshold by making this deal. By standing pat, Toronto CANNOT add payroll via free agency this summer. Toronto desperately wants to reduce their salary cap-luxury tax number in the worst way. Great trade for Toronto, getting rid of both of these two terrible contracts is a major accomplishment. why would tornto do that joe smith's contract is longer than davis's . plus davis is alot better. brandon will never play again right?

 

I think the T-wolves need to do whatever it takes to get rid of TB..he's holding them back.

 

damn yo. thats not an article thats a term paper

 

LOL

 

It may be long, but that will explain it so people stop asking why would they want Brandon?

 

It must have took hours to type that

 

I forgot that we might get Jalen Rose from the Bulls and Eddie Jones from the Heat.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting "truemaster14":</div><div class="quote_post">It must have took hours to type that</div>

Actually, it probably took him about 5 minutes, because he didn't really write that.

http://basketballboards.net/forum/showthre...9598&forumid=22

He copied it.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting "olskoolFunktitude":</div><div class="quote_post">damn yo. thats not an article thats a term paper</div>

Tell that to the person who actually wrote it.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting "Slay_Can_Play":</div><div class="quote_post"><div class="quote_poster">Quoting "olskoolFunktitude":</div><div class="quote_post">damn yo. thats not an article thats a term paper</div>

Tell that to the person who actually wrote it.</div>

wow... congrats you wrote a nice lil article... who cares if he copied it... you basicly gathered a bunch of information from ESPN and threw it together...

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting "Slay_Can_Play":</div><div class="quote_post"><div class="quote_poster">Quoting "olskoolFunktitude":</div><div class="quote_post">damn yo. thats not an article thats a term paper</div>

Tell that to the person who actually wrote it.</div>
he already gave credit to basketballboards

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting "slamduncan21":</div><div class="quote_post"><div class="quote_poster">Quoting "Slay_Can_Play":</div><div class="quote_post"><div class="quote_poster">Quoting "olskoolFunktitude":</div><div class="quote_post">damn yo. thats not an article thats a term paper</div>

Tell that to the person who actually wrote it.</div>
he already gave credit to basketballboards</div>

After he edited his own post.. :roll:

 

Look at the time Slay exposed him for the thief he is, and then look at the time twolvefan11 edited his post:

Slay: Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2003 11:43 am

articlestealer11: Last edited (ahem--stolen) by twolvefan11 on Sat Jun 28, 2003 12:02 pm

 

Sorry, I just forgot to give credit, then I did, it's all better now.

 

go cry somewhere else MDE noone wants to hear it...

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting "the MDE":</div><div class="quote_post">Look at the time Slay exposed him for the thief he is, and then look at the time twolvefan11 edited his post:

Slay: Posted: Sat Jun 28, 2003 11:43 am

articlestealer11: Last edited (ahem--stolen) by twolvefan11 on Sat Jun 28, 2003 12:02 pm</div>

seriously..who cares?

 

hahaha. yea no one gives a rats ass clyde

 

"I forgot that we might get Jalen Rose from the Bulls and Eddie Jones from the Heat."

R U Serious! Eddie Jones! That would be awesome for the Wolves. They already got Spree 2. That would be an awesome lineup. EJ is one of the most underrated players in the game 2day.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting NickVanExel:</div><div class="quote_post">"I forgot that we might get Jalen Rose from the Bulls and Eddie Jones from the Heat."

R U Serious! Eddie Jones! That would be awesome for the Wolves. They already got Spree 2. That would be an awesome lineup. EJ is one of the most underrated players in the game 2day.</div>

Umm....that is kind of old news. It was supposed to be in the Terrell Brandon deal, but we got Spree instead of those two.