Nurk Fever - second wave?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Rastapopoulos, Nov 7, 2021.

  1. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    yes because bamba isn’t anywhere near Nurkic as a player. You can count on one hand the centers that play 81 games a season. Bigs gets injured, it’s just physics. But he’s also an impact two way player when he’s on the court, so he’s worth the money. Bamba is still closer to a project than an established player.
     
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  2. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

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    Of course not...I'm talking centers that have a somewhat reliable post game.. the ones that are only there for defense or put-backs know their place (DeAndre Jordan's of the world). But if you can get relatively easy buckets down low and motivate your big man, it's smart to do so IMO.

    CJ could be really good at feeding a big man if he wanted to. Unfortunately if Nurk needs to pass out of the post to establish a better position, he wouldn't ever get it back.
     
  3. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    well, in another thread...or maybe this one, I posted Nurk's in post-up plays. IIRC, that was around 24-25% of his offense and he was only in the 41st percentile in PPP. I listed several other C's, those that had more than 20% of their offense in post-up, and Nurk was the worst of the bunch in terms of efficiency. But I'll check again:

    87th percentile - (Enes Freedom)
    84th percentile - Embiid
    79th percentile - Jokic, (Aldridge)
    74th percentile - Aaron Gordon
    64th percentile - Anthony Davis
    62nd percentile - Alperen Sengun
    61st percentile - Ayton, Robin Lopez
    60th percentile - Harrell
    58th percentile - Valunciunas, (Kevin Love)
    54th percentile - Evan Mobley
    45th percentile - Porzingas
    44th percentile - Sabonis
    42 percentile - Marikief Morris (not a C but a gauge of post-up)
    41st percentile - Nurkic
    29th percentile - KAT
    22nd percentile -Vucevic'



    not a lot of C's over 20% of their offense from post-up so I'll set the floor at (15%) and put names in (x)


    He's better in PnR-roll man where he ranks in the 72nd percentile; 27% of his offense:

    97th percentile - Marquiss Chriss
    95th percentile - Javale McGee
    94th percentile - Brandon Clarke
    93rd percentile - Mike Muscala, Jaxson Hayes
    91st percentile - Herangomez
    89th percentile - Hartenstein
    87th percentile - Mitchell Robinson
    84th percentile - Whiteside, Ayton
    82nd percentile - Richaun Holmes
    81st percentile - Sabonis
    80th percentile - Harrell
    78th percentile - Daniel Gafford, Kaminsky
    77th percentile - Thomas Bryant, Rudy Gobert
    72nd percentile - Nurkic, Deandre Jordan
    71st percentile - Robin Lopez
    68th percentile - Cousins
    66th percentile - Aldridge, Capela
    59th percentile - Jakob Poeltl
    21st percentile - Vucevic'

    those two play types account for 52% of Nurk's offense and he's a long ways from elite in either

    16% of Nurk's offense come off of cuts and he's in the 35th percentile in that play (Nance 64th percentile; Zeller 77th percentile; Watford 51st percentile)

    13% of Nurk's offense is on put-backs and he's 45th percentile (Nance 90th percentile)

    so, an offensive play rate - percentile ranking looks like

    27% of offense - 72nd percentile
    25% of offense - 41st percentile
    16% of offense - 35th percentile
    13% of offense - 45th percentile

    that's 81% of his offense and his percentiles are not impressive at all. Obviously, there's more context to this. We can try and figure how well the offense works when Nurk is one of the hubs. Better stats guys than me can work on that if they want. But, one thing to keep in mind with Nurk as a hub is that his assist rate is 16.3% while his turnover rate is 16.8%. He is more likley to generate a turnover than an assist. Again, there's a little more context than that because he commits a lot of screen fouls so not all of his turnovers are with-ball turnovers

    that doesn't mean he's not valuable to Portland though. I think he is quite important. He's the core of the defense; if he wasn't there the Blazers would be historically bad. Further, with Portland's overall roster size they should be a shitty rebounding team but they rank 3rd in the league in defensive rebounding and that's primarily due to Nurk

    bottom line is I don't think there's any justification there for Nurk to be more involved in the offense, and maybe even some for him being less involved. His role is to defend and rebound and be a presence in the paint on both ends of the floor. If he can't accept that role unless he's featured on offense he becomes a distraction...IMO
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2022
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  4. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

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    agree to disagree...Nurk is critical to our success and the more he's involved the better he plays. Guess I've always had a penchant for rewarding bigs who do the dirty work. Just ask @hoopsjock about my alley-op to him for the RipCity3on3 tournament win, summer 19.
     
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  5. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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  6. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

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    i concur. Great read.
     
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  7. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

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    Just tossing this out there on the paywall thing. People bitch about not having quality sports writers here, but then don't want to pay the companies that can hire good sports writers.
    Seems a little odd to me…

    If not willing to pay a company to read their content, then i wouldn't bitch much about the writers writing the content.
    My $.02.
     
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  8. brooklynballer

    brooklynballer Well-Known Member

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    Very well drafted article and certainly shared some insights about Nurk that I wasn’t aware of.

    This passage caught my attention though: “We are going to try and improve the team as much as possible and we are going to build around you, Dame and CJ, and hopefully, we find a way to do that.” I can understand the desire to keep Dame and Nurk (for their p’n’r chemistry alone) but why was CJ lumped into that core group? Is nine years watching the CJ and Dame backcourt get destroyed defensively not enough?

    Honestly if this is Cronin’s mindset then we might as well blow the whole thing up. CJ + Dame together (with or without Nurk) are not leading this organization to anything more than more first round playoff exits.
     
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  9. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    yeah, you absolutely have to consider the injury history when gauging what contract Nurkic is worth

    in the last 3 seasons, the Blazers have played 195 games. Nurkic played in 91. So he played in 91 and missed 104. In his first 4 seasons, he missed 104 games...that's 26 games a year which is essentially a 3rd of a season

    when he signed his current contract, it was said to be a bargain. But to this point, he has played in 163 of the 277 games Portland has played during that contract. He has only played in 59% of games. If you pro-rate the missed games, Nurk's 12m/year salary is effectively 20M/year. Even for big men that's excessive. Obviously players miss games, but Nurk misses a lot more than average

    another possible gauge of his contract: since Nurkic arrived in Portland, Portland's playoff record with a healthy Nurkic is 3-12 (.200). Without him it's 8-11 (.421). Blazers have been boat-raced in the 1st round with Nurkic. Without Nurkic, they made it to the WC finals with a C they paid 650K for a 3rd of a season. Is it reasonable to expect that having Nurkic would have yielded results any better that year?
     
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  10. tykendo

    tykendo Don't Tread On PDX

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    I know i'm probably in the minority here, but i think Nurk should be re-signed. I hear all the stuff about Myles Turner, but he's got this stress issue in his foot. That's bad news. Feet problems (insert Walton) lead to nothing but trouble. They have a great chance for re-injury, over , and over again. Yes Nurk has an injury background as well, but he has also toughed through a finger issue this year. Something i'm not sure he would have in the past. His maturity is better, all around. I think the Blazers won't find a better talent on the market. He's not that old. Still learning, and the care for his communities welfare is off the charts. If it's true that Nurk may be re-signed, vote me in for approving.
     
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  11. AmirIcon

    AmirIcon Well-Known Member

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    Myles Turner isn't even half the player Nurk is. Some "fans" are absolutely clueless. Nurk is one of the best centers in the league. Sabonis doesn't play defense. Turner gets pushed around. We're extremely lucky to have Nurk and won't be getting anyone better.
     
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  12. GriLtCheeZ

    GriLtCheeZ "Well, I'm not lookin' for trouble."

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    I don't think it is OK, but I'm glad you posted the article 'cause I wasn't gonna subscribe so I could read it. So did they really lose any money?
    OK who bought some Bosnian Beans? I just put in my order.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2022
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  13. blazerkor

    blazerkor Well-Known Member

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    Another trade that I would try to make right now is Dennis Smith Jr. and either our 2022 second rounder and a future second or if necessary that pick we get back from the Nurk trade to the Rockets for Kevin Porter Jr. I'm pretty sure the second rounders would do it since Houston has been having problems with Porter (suspended for a game a month ago for "poor behavior"). They might even do that trade straight across given that both PGs have similar overall output and the problems the Rockets have had with Porter.

    I don't know and really don't care much who would be our top-8 immediately after the trades but going into next season we would have Dame, Simmons, Brown, Nas, Bamba, Milton, Watford, Porter and at that point we should use our first rounder to pick up the big available when we pick who is most ready to contribute from day one off of the bench. Hopefully because of Watford's game it's a stretch big. Orlando Robinson from Fresno State is the guy I'd target as of right now. Dude has NBA ready footwork on both ends, good timing blocking shots and a very nice jumper... at almost 22 years old and having started for three seasons at a division one program he just has a great feel for the game.
     
  14. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    Nurk goes up against someone a little closer to his size....and got dominated.

    Nurk - 11 points, 4 rebs, 4 TOs
    Vuce - 24 points, 14 rebs, 3 assists....on 11-15 shooting.
     
  15. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    didn’t see him post up Nurk once and a lot of his points came against the second unit.
     
  16. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    Of course Watford isn't going to be able to do anything with Vuce, but Nurk did nothing to slow him down either. And Nurk wasn't able to do much against him. It is what it is.
     
  17. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    he had five shots. Makes no sense cuz he was backing vucevic down easy. All Vuc did offensively is shoot jumpers. Congrats to him.
     
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  18. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    the few times we posted nurk, he was really loose with the ball today. dude was giving away live ball turns that they immediately turned to points. it's one bad game in a while. let's hope it's not a sign of things to come.
     
  19. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    He also had 6 TO's and 0 assists against Houston. His usage goes up, his TO's go way up.....but yet his efficiency isn't very good.
     
  20. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    his A:TO ratio is nearly at 1 this month, which (while bad) isn't terrible for a C, but it's the nature of the turnovers that's infuriating at times. if it's from moving screens, at least they're not live ball ones, but the ones where he just tosses a lazy pass or brings the ball down low to get swiped are really bad.
     
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