Off Season heading into the draft

If The Warriors, Kings and Wizards all end up with a 25 win record, do they split the lottery balls and each get the same amount?

 

Teams with tied records get their amount of lottery pingpongs averaged. Once they're out of the top 3, it becomes a coin flip. So if 25 was the 3rd, 4th, and 5th worst record, each team would get 156 (3rd place) + 119 (4th place) + 88 (5th place) pingpongs divided by 3, which ends up being 121 chances each.

As far as Motiejunas, if we fall far in the draft I could see a stretch where Motiejunas is taken straight up at the #6-7 spot. Last year I was cautiously optimistic about him, but this year I'm pessimistic after watching his first full pro season in the euroleague. I think Motiejunas will turn out to be worse than Yi Jinlian, someone who's got a lot of potential, but has so much inconsistency that it's not worth it. There are serious flags with his strength, rebounding, defense and shooting range right now, even though he's 19, there are better big men in college if we don't get the top picks.

 

I don't even want to consider that, drafting anyone but Turner makes this season even more depressing.

I guess we could trade the pick but as far as rookies go, it's Turner or bust!

 

The Warriors seemed really motivated to get Nelson's win record, so we're winning quite a lot. Some of the upcoming games are hard, but there's 2 or 3 easy teams coming up, although only one win seals the record. I hope that by doing this, the team's earned enough good karma, despite our lesser mathematical chances, if we end up 4th or tied, etc. It's sad that so much hope rests on the ping-pong balls, but that's what it comes down to.

 

I really think the lottery is rigged to an extent. Stern sees $$$ in the Bay Area market and the potential new ownership to resurrect winning basketball. A little nudge in the bingo machine wouldn't hurt the NBA, now would it?

Prediction, Warriors get #1 or #2 regardless of how they finish.

I hate the tanking talk. Tanking doesn't guarantee you anything. It instills a loser mentality in both the team and the fans.

 

Do we like Favors? Couldn't he be sort of be like an Amare Stoudamire for us in terms of pick and roll plays? He's a lot bigger than our current crop of big men and he's athletic and defensive-minded.

I don't think we want to get a small forward do we? I think unless there's a world beater out there for us, why not use our current swingmen. What we really need is the big man who brings all the right tools for the position. If Cousins didn't have so many red flags, I'd say he's the best center for us. He might be riskier than Favors despite the size advantage, better numbers and his scoring polish.

I really wish we could go over free agents this year. Man I'll even take a 35 year old Paul Pierce or a 70 game Yao Ming/Chris Bosh.

Anyone think someone could pull a sign and trade for Joe Johnson? He's Evan Turner-like don't you think? How about David Lee or Mike Miller or Manu Ginobili?

 

I suggested to Matt Steinmetz on his CSN chat thing a trade for Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich. We would give up Monta and Maggette.

He said that the last thing the Warriors need are more wings. I agree and disagree. While the Warriors have plenty of wings on the roster next year in Azubuike, Morrow, and now Williams, none of them are outstanding or difference makers throughout an entire NBA season. They're role players so if the Warriors add a quality starting SF like Deng, their role can be to back him up.

Deng is a SF with size, athleticism, and plays with a high IQ. He has a huge contract that's very backloaded. Hinrich's contract has two years left after this season at 9M and then 8M.

There would be no financial gain from doing the trade. It's a straight-up trade for equitable but different (needed) talent. Team-oriented players.

It is just an example and I don't think it's that attractive to Chicago, even though they need scoring bad; I don't know if they would want Rose and Monta to share the backcourt for the same reason Warrior fans don't think Monta and Curry should share a backcourt and if they want anything to do with Maggette even though he's a Chicago native. From reading their forums, it seems they would rather do a salary dump than a financially equitable and trade because they want to make a big splash in the off-season by signing a Bosh or D-Wade.

The point being, the Warriors should be open to improving every position despite the fact that they're overloaded at a couple positions.

 

I personally like Favors more than Cousins if we're talking about draft choices for the Warriors. I don't think that he'll make a big impact instantly, but with NBA practices and more experience, he'll be a great athletic type forward/center. I don't think he's that much like Stoudamire except for their dunking, because Stoudamire developed a consistent jumper after a few years which makes his pick-and-roll more effective because he can drift to different areas. Stoudamire has a much more developed back-to-the-basket game too. It's a big question mark if or when Favors will develop those skills, because his offensive game is limited right now, although he's great at finishing.

I still think it's best to draft by best available player. However, most of the big men are decent in this draft so it's simply a better idea to go that way because in most cases, they're the best. There's certainly no reason to target a wing player between having Azubuike, Morrow and Williams available next season, with all three being excellent candidates as role players/spot starters.

As far as sign-and-trade, the hard part is that the free agents will have to want to come here. Chicago is the rumored front-runner for Johnson, Ginobili will probably retire or stay with the Spurs for another year. Someone can probably sign Miller for the MLE. And Lee, well I don't know what his future is, though with his great season, he should be able to find a good contract somewhere.

 

Cool, we need a real difference maker anyway. David Lee is cool, but he's stuck in between a power forward and a center, which wouldn't be a problem if his defensive skills were more like Ben Wallace's. I like Lee's hustle and his offensive skill (excellent passer, score with either hand, smart moving without the ball, can run the floor well, improved free throw shooting)

I guess the reason why I wouldn't mind aging swingmen who have complete offensive games, is because they make the team better. I thought just by adding guys like Reggie Williams made a difference because Sjax was supposed to be that guy who could score and look to create plays for others. It ain't going to be Morrow or Maggette so we kind of needed that guy to get some chemistry going. This team will definitely be hot stuff if we can get that big guy who can do things on both ends of the floor and give him Curry + a star shooting guard.

BTW the more I watch Favors, the more I like him. He's productive and he could grow to be a center. He's 6'9 250 pounds right? That's like an Al Horford or Emeka Okafor.

 

I'm on the same page as you in your hypothetical draft situation, in that those are definitely the guys I'd support drafting. I almost totally agree with your analysis too. But I come to a different conclusion - under that scenario, I am leaning towards Aminu or Johnson. If you forced me to choose right now, I'd pick Aminu, but it's still really early in the draft process.

I'll go through the other guys in brief first. Like you mentioned, when I watch Aldrich, I see basically Andris Biedrins' game - which is a fine complement to any team, but he wouldn't get past the depth chart of Biedrins or Turiaf, and definitely not work playing alongside them. He'll end up more of a "need" pick for a team, and probably have a solid career, but really isn't a building block for the Warriors. As for Monroe or Udoh, both are decent post players that can pass well. Unfortunately I didn't watch any Baylor games til the tourney, so my opinion for him isn't really based off that many games, but Udoh has the strongest positive buzz from his drastic improvement this season. If I had to pick between them, I'd actually focus more on Udoh over Monroe - I think they will be similar players in the NBA, although Udoh seems to be much better defensively. There's two major downsides for Udoh, though: first is his age, Udoh will be 23, while Monroe only 20. The second is that his development basically only has been on display for this one year, where Monroe is a safer bet because he's been under scrutiny for years. Still, the kind of overall development Udoh has shown is also an impressive testament to his desire to improve, so I would seriously think about Udoh if we had a lower spot, but there are still better players available.

As far as Aminu, I do think Aminu is another Randolph - fast, athletic, with the ability to handle the ball, but lacking bulk and an outside shot, with the game of a 4 but the body of a 3. Johnson is a more polished in that he's a great shooter and scorer and decent defender, but also more limited in that he has poor ballhandling skills. Still, he understands his limitations, which is a good thing, unlike forwards who want to pretend they're guards and over-dribble the ball. Aminu and Johnson are also the most athletic players whose games will easily translate to the NBA. Of course, there are some problems with them too - both are light on weight, and somewhat lacking in height although both possess great wingspans. Why would I want another long, skinny athletic guy when the Warriors seem to have a stockpile of them? Well, not everyone is going to pan out, so I'd rather raise my chances - one out of three versus one out of two? I know that the Warriors need bulk, but these guys are the best players available at this point and your scenario is very likely to happen if we were to be 5th, and the guys who are sound enough defensively aren't up to snuff offensively to really be considered up here.

There's another chance to pick up a decent defensive big man in the second round with Gani Lawal, Larry Sanders, Jerome Jordan, Jarvis Varnado, Daniel Orton as potential possibilities, although our attempts to do so in the second round have consistently failed. I do really like Larry Sanders, though he may get picked in the first round, as may Lawal and Orton. Heck, maybe Whiteside will fall?

 

The more I think about it, I'd like to just blow it all up. Hold on to Curry and do a complete revamp of the team, similar to what Nellie did in Dallas in 1996-1997.

 

I wonder if a guy like Haslem would be available, and at what cost? He's the type of scrapper that makes teams better without demanding the ball. Essentially he's what Biedrins should be.

I'd like to see the Warriors next season end up with a starting 5 of
Stephen Curry
Rip Hamilton
Josh Childress or Josh Howard
Udonis Haslem
Marcus Camby

I think it's doable still being able to hold on to Wright, Buike and the D league crew off the bench. The majority of players on this list are free agents, restricted free agents, or have a player option next season

I don't think that team would be a threat next year, but they'd essentially be a center away from doing some damage. These guys are all smart players that would shine in a Nellie system (assuming he's still around). Actually if Nellie's around, maybe Frye at the 5 instead of Camby...hell maybe both of them


I have no idea how the trades would work, but I think this is a reasonable target of talent/value considering what we have on our roster to offer out.

 

How about just blow up the team, literally, while protecting Curry in a bomb-shelter? Relocate to San Francisco and enjoy leftover Gilroy Garlic Fries from AT&T Park?

 

I'm not in favor of blowing up the entire team, literally or figuratively. Even though Nellie says he'll be back, chances are higher that new management will bring in their own guy. I still like Randolph, Curry, and Ellis if we would just play defenders alongside them to help them. Biedrins/Turiaf is a manageable center platoon, although not ideal offensively. Get rid of Maggette, and Azubuike and Williams can fill in the wing position as some kind of two-headed-starter-slash-6th man roleplayer, though more defense would be ideal here to help Curry and Ellis deal with fatigue against star players. That's already 7 players even after getting rid of Maggette - maybe Wright and the draft pick somehow play their way in to the rotation. Curry, Ellis, Williams and Randolph would put four playmakers on the floor, but could be one massively frustrating defensive unit.

I know it sounds like last year, but the difference is that Curry's play has been strong enough to make me believe that it can work (last year, I was pounding that we desperately needed a point guard because Ellis wasn't one, and now that void is filled). Plus, we still haven't seen everyone healthy. I wouldn't stop from making a good trade, but the amount of rebuilding you're doing in that scenario is massive plus really quite lateral - I like Childress and Camby and Haslem, but they're three role-players when the team would really need one star to say there was improvement. Finding or developing a true interior presence, ideally one that can both score inside when absolutely necesary as well as one that plays solid defense, would bring the franchise into long-term respectability. (Randolph has shown he can be a good shotblocker, but is lacking on the man-to-man defense and defensive IQ). Swapping Maggette out for an expiring contract, and having Vlad's contract (as well as Azuibuike's) expire would potentially create enough cap room to sign a max-deal 2011 free agent and/or be able to absorb contracts to create a beneficial trade.

 

Looks like we won the coin toss. So if neither the Warriors or the Wizards vault into the top 3, then the Warriors will pick 1st. So I guess the worst possible pick is 7 now, not 8.

I heard Fitz mention it at lunch here's the link

 

Since we're now picking from either 1-7, our top 7 should be:

1.) Wall (best player in the draft, you have to)
2.) Turner (probably the guy we most covet in terms of B.A.P. / skillset / star power / and nba readiness )
3.) Cousins (he's got purported maturity issues and a game some say won't be as effective at the nba level, but at only 19 years old he's 6'11 and 270lbs with both good numbers against good teams and a great skillset. Plus some speculate he should be ready to play immediately with that man-child body of his. That makes him a B.A.P. at #3)
4.) Favors (athletic, bulky big man whose main game is defense and explosiveness finishing inside. He's got the most upside out of any big man due to physical qualities and his current skillset/intangibles. We could find very good use for him at different size positions if he's really 6'10 or has the wingspan and size to battle centers. Otherwise we're drafting another power forward who is less skilled than our current crop)
5.) Al-Farouq Aminu (he's only better than Wesley Johnson due to being younger and having more athletic upside. I'd rather have Wesley Johnson because he is ready now and there is lower risk that he'll be a bust, but that is not the right draft attitude. Aminu is really raw, but he could very well prove his detractors wrong just like Josh Smith did when he stepped out onto an nba court and showed how productive he was. I think there is strong possibility that he won't be ready for a few years if we draft him, which won't help us if the guy is still stuck between positions by the time we have to start seeing some contribution from him at either forward positions)
6.) Wesley Johnson (he's 23 years old, some speculate he won't grow much beyond his current showing, but he's versatile, more likely to have a defined role on the warriors' current roster as a small forward. I think his impact should be immediate as his skill level is already good for prototype small forward. He should take way fewer years than Aminu to show nice team level impact in the open court or half court. His mix of defense and offensive skill and versatility should fit in nicely with our current youngsters. Plus he's entertaining to watch on the alley-oop play)
7.) Greg Monroe (I think this guy will be kind of a bust at first. He's got no right hand, he's more likely an understrengthed center with some basic ballhandling and above average high-post passing skills. He already has a great understanding of the game for a 19 year old and he's crafty and smooth player. I'd say grab him over Cole Aldrich. The guy could be better than we think and big players are always hard to find. I don't care if he becomes the Dunleavy or Pietrus of the draft. That's why it sucks to pick below pick 5 in a draft like this. What if there is a better player further down that is on few lottery teams' radar. I want that guy!)

If we get stuck in the 5-7 range it's just not as clear who we should draft. If we go 4, it should be favors. He's the BAP imo and he's a type of big guy we don't have.

If we happen to get lucky and go #3, I think we should still get Cousins only if Turner hasn't fallen to #3. There is opportunity bolster our center position through this draft and also explore draft-day trade possibilities if somebody were to let's say give us a current all-star player for him. From what we see based on Curry, he looks to be the guy to build players around and one thing we have lacked is a franchise-level big man to compliment the shooting guard and point guard positions. Biedrins will be an important player, but he won't be that guy to build your offense around. Randolph is still too early and he's clearly not a center, and Wright hasn't played very much due to injury. Go with Cousins after Turner. We got a mismatch opportunity at either power forward or center, which I think is a huge plus.

 

I agree we need a star to pair with Curry/Ellis or just Curry.

I am down for Reggie Williams taking over small forward/shooting guard role because he has shown very good scoring with more team play than Azubuike and Maggette combined. Although Azu and Mags have proven to be effective when nobody is scoring, I think they're anti-team because they just don't pass or prove consistent enough in areas outside of individual offense. The team also has a limited budget to work with, so I think it's killing two birds with one stone if we drop the same types of guys that don't appear to elevate team level of play.

Say I have a few cheap role players who can mix it up a little, and guys like Reggie Williams or Curry are getting the most out of them by finding their sweet spots on different parts of the floor. I want to have that kind of a team until we find a definite star to get 20 ppg while being committed to defense and delivering the ball when double teamed. Our problem is we invest in guys that give us one thing and not enough of many things. We end up having overrated role players like Maggette and other guys who play exactly like him! That's just not team level of play.

Plus, if the nba isn't about teamwork but riding your stars, give me guys that can fit the best with our current franchise players. We totally missed Biedrins/Turiaf/Wright/Randolph this year and had to settle for Mags/Buike/Vlad at PF/C at times. If we just had our normal bigs and a coach willing to play those bigs, we could have a little more offense/post presence coming from the power forward and center positions. This could give our guards a little more room to operate if players are double teaming inside and we improve instantly on defense (post defense, defensive rebounding, shotblocking, not to mention post presence keeping the guards/weaker big men out of the lane).