[ official ] 2016 summer moves

Bold predictions are fun.

1.) I guess it depends on who picks first

14.) I think it drags on because Mike Conley will have no idea what he wants to do. Memphis, Houston, and New York are some pretty crummy options.

15.) It's a gut feeling. They want shooting or defense in their front court.

16.) The 76ers will take the gamble.

18.) Maybe not Tim Duncan, but if he does they'll get Gasol. Book it.

 

I don't like DeRozan's shooting. From a shooting guard you'd expect better. His defense is better than CJ's and he gets to the line a lot but it's not always pretty. On his off day when he cannot get to the line he can be as useless as it gets. I like him as a player but the only way we could make it work is make him transition into SF but then his rebounding is not good enough and you need to be able to shoot as a SF too. I'd absolutely not replace CJ with DeRozan.

As I've said, it's Horford first and then think about other targets if he doesn't sign. If I was convinced we had pieces to make a move for someone like Millsap or Okafor then I'd probably look away from the free agency and do it but I'm not sure. McCollum's is our best piece that isn't named Lillard and I'd not like to have him moved because I truly believe in the future of this backcourt. They will overcome defensive issues eventually or we'll just get good defenders at 3 and 4 to compensate. Offensively they're there even if the lack of experience has hurt them a little in some key moments (I know Lillard's not really a rookie or a 2nd year youth but it's his first season as the main leader really, without Aldridge etc.).

 

They'd want CJ at least. They need a perimeter player with star potential and outside of CJ and Dame we don't have that. Noel is more gettable IMO, and should be a DeAndre Jordan, Hassan Whiteside level guy in the next few years.

 

If it's Sixers they should move for Ingram. They need to add a shooter to the roster. If it's Lakers then I believe they will move for Simmons and count on Russell's shooting. I agree about 76ers moving for Beal, I actually reckon they'll move for loads of free agents because they have a tonne of cap space and could really use any player whatsoever now.

 

Noel's defence is very good but I have doubts about his offensive potential. Okafor and Embiid will never work together so if they want to use Embiid next season they may want to move Okafor but I agree that they'd probably ask for CJ at which point it becomes too expensive. Maybe we could offer them Crabbe, Leonard and a pick? Crabbe is far better than anything they have at SG, Leonard would be their only stretch 4 and they love their picks.

 

I agree. If it's Boston who knows.. I have a gut feeling Pheonix will get the #1 pick though.

 

Both of those guys are RFA so therefore we'd have to do some sort of double sign and trade which is pretty much unheard of. Aminu might hold value to them as a 3 and D SF. They'd be interested in Vonleh as well.

 

Yeah Vonleh's a project they could possibly take. Aminu I don't want Blazers to trade, he's very valuable at $7m a year.

 

Here's how I think we'll pursue it.
1st players contacted: Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Pau Gasol
-If we signed Al Horford for the max and kept our cap holds on Harkless($4M), Leonard($4M), and Crabbe($2.7M), wed have approximately $7M in cap space. We'd need to clear $20M to sign Durant, but we'd still pursue him hard. If he signed, we'd renounce Harkless, Leonard, and we'd trade Aminu, Vonleh + filler contracts for picks. We could still keep Crabbe. Signing Gasol for less would mean we wouldn't have to clear as much space and we could keep more guys.

Basically, we have the ability to keep Dame and CJ while adding any 2 of Kevin Durant, Al Horford, and Pau Gasol.
Therefore we don't have to prioritize them as in "We have to go after Horford for the most part instead of worrying about Durant..." We can go hard after all three of these guys, likely landing one without having to get rid of anybody, but being ready to do some cap gymnastics in case we strike gold and sign two.

The next wave of players will be interesting. I have no clue who the options will be after that.

 

Thats the thing though, it'd take the kind of value Aminu has with his cheap contract to get Noel.

 

Man, don't do this. Adding Durant and Horford to this roster would make it... just don't do this. This is the sort of thing you'd probably do in 2k and find it difficult to believe you pulled this off.

I'm absolutely convinced we'd contact both. I'd say we have about 10% chance of getting Durant at best and 30% at Horford. Still this postseason has probably driven it up, they'd both know that we'd be contenders with either of them and proper favourites with both.

 

Obviously it's not likely at all, bit getting one would help get the other. If we landed Durant its likely we land one of Horford or Gasol

 

Yep. Landing Durant would basically help land anyone. For Durant it's hard to tell what he'll do.

If Thunder crash out to Spurs then he may become disillusioned with his life at Thunder. They're not getting close to winning the championship. IMO it's pointless for him to move to a poor team like Lakers or even Wizards (it's off the table anyway from what I understand) because he's running out of time and will want to win the ring, he deserves it for his career. He will probably get an offer from Warriors but he'll know well that by moving there he virtually removes his chance of being THE hero, he'll be one of many stars, besides I'd probably expect Warriors to try to re-sign Barnes. Spurs rumours have been solid but it's again a case of him moving to a ready-made championship side and I'm not sure if fitting Leonard, Durant and Aldridge in one team is going to be that great. He will get max deal offers from Houston but he'd be absolutely mad to go there right now. At Portland he'd be the star along with Lillard and Lillard would help him much more than Westbrook does IMO. He'd also have another good supporting cast player in CJ plus if we manage to pull it off also a good big man in someone like Horford. I'm not sure if he's after big market, he's spent years living in Oklahoma City which is not exactly a huge market. Would he win the title at Portland? It's not guaranteed by any stretch of imagination but he'd be more likely to do so than he's at Thunder IMO.

It's not likely at all that he will be at Portland next season but I could see the line of reason that could convince him to come there. As I said it's a 10% chance but great teams are built on that.

 

Would love to see Okafor become a Blazer.
He's exactly what we need down low - someone our guards can drop it down to - someone who can actually score the ball consistently down low.

Don't know if we can land him, but Okafor added to this squad; it just feels right when I do 'the gut check'.

 

Defense though. McCollum and Lillard are soft on defensive side, you add a center who is not quite there defensively and it might be a bit tough. Then again if you also manage to pull off a Horford then it's suddenly starting to make more sense.

I'd expect Philadelphia to ask for a significant price for Okafor and I really do not want us to give up on CJ. A 3-team trade involving Plumlee and a pick could be the best bet here.

 

To compete with GS, we need a big time PF/C. That's the only counter not only for them, but also our general floor geometry.

Is there anyway at all for us to get Boogie?

 

Would have to give up on CJ, Plumlee, possibly also Crabbe and throw in a pick I'd think.

 

yea that's the crappy part about it, even though league wide his value might be lower than you would think, its clear that his value to the kings is high, otherwise they wouldn't be changing coaches like they have been. for us to keep as much as we can, and still make that happen I would think we need another team involved. someone blowing it up that would take a few semi-projects from us for cap space, they move a larger contract or two of better established players to the kings, we get boogie.

 

I still like Cole Aldrich as a backup plan. But Horford would be ideal.

 

No way the Blazers have a shot at KD. If they don't win it all, he's headed East or to gravy train with a contender like the Spurs or Warriors.

Plan A: I'd go all in for Whiteside or Howard (who quietly had a solid series against the Warriors while the rest of his team melted down). Both players are needed rim protectors as well as elite rebounders (both tied fro #3 regular season).

Plan B: Horford or Ryan Anderson.