<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">This is nothin new from me. I've said all year that the elite teams are gonna take advantage of Hayes's lack of athleticism, and you saw that first hand against Phoenix.</div> What? Hayes lacks athleticism? Juwan Howard is a lot less athletic than Hayes. I'm sure you mean something else. Hayes skies for those rebounds, blocks more shots, and he's quick. I agree, he does have trouble finishing around the rim sometimes, but he's working on it. Forgetting about the last game he has really improved his layups a lot lately. It makes so much more sense to start Hayes. More than half of his field goals come off T-Mac's assists. He rebounds the ball well next to Yao, while Yao is posting up 10 ft away from the basket, Hayes finds a way to steal the rebound. Howard gives us a guy to go down low to when Yao sits, as well as scoriing off the bench. Leave it the way it is, I'm sure JVG has it that way for a reason. If Hayes does not show up in the first two games of the playoffs, I'm sure the correct adjustments would be made.
<div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Long post, bare with me. Firstly, Juwan also misses layups and point-blank hooks. Chuck actually converts a much higher percentage on those shots (60% vs 52%, according to 82games), and he doesn't get his inside shots blocked as frequently (10% versus 15%). So, that's not the advantage Juwan gives us. You're right, Juwan gets more attention from defenses, so if he's stationed in the high post that can give Yao a little more room to catch the ball in the post. Absolutely, that's what happened in the third quarter (not so much in the first), and we took advantage of that. That's what you gain from Juwan offensively. But I don't think he actually hit an outside jumper all game, and his jumper has been way off for a few weeks now. If that doesn't start going in, then teams will stop respecting him as well. Juwan also did a fine job on the offensive boards, somewhat uncharacteristically (particularly of late). So, overall despite the poor shooting he had a positive impact in that third quarter. I agree that you gain some offensively with Juwan in there. I've argued that the gains are relatively marginal in general, but perhaps against Phoenix that isn't the case (at least based on the third quarter). I just don't think it's smart to make lineup changes based on a few games, let alone a single quarter. I'd rather look at the trends over a large sample of games. Based on that, I still maintain that our starting group is better off with Chuck because of his impact defensively and on the boards. Overwhelmingly, our starting group outscores the opposing team in the first and third quarters when Yao, McGrady, and Chuck have been playing. Even against the good teams. Against Phoenix the other night, we happened to be a net +3. I've shown many times over that Yao-McGrady-Juwan combination hasn't been as effective, even if you look at what they did against the good lineups. And the difference is largely defense, not offense. We're just been a vastly better defensive team when Chuck has been on the court, while we're a slightly better offensive team when Juwan has been on the court. That's what the evidence has been if you look at our entire season against the good teams. What you do instead, though, is ignore the games that don't follow your script, and only focus on isolated games that happen to coincide with what you're saying (and even then, you often exxagerate the results).</div> Look I know ur a pure stats guy. We all know that by now. Stats are important, very important. But some things call for good basketball judgement. This is ur weakness. I'm not sayin going strictly by stats is bad, because as we all know even I myself use them from time to time. But regular season stats don't neccesarily translate to playoff stats. Which means just because our record with Chuck starting was good in the regular season, doesn't mean we'll have the same success against the elite teams like Phoenix, Utah, San Antonio or Dallas. As you saw against Phoenix, they completley embarrassed Chuck Hayes. It's a simple question of defense or offense. Our team is already defensivlely pure, that'll never change. But the fact is the more we score the more our chances increase of winning. Thereofore, Juwan should start in the playoffs. We can't risk Chuck repeately gettin his shot swatted in the first row (ex: Amare & Marion) in the 1st quarter of games. Utah is definatley going to force Chuck to make shots. Since his range is limited, they'll be able to bother Yao and still get back to cover the rim. We'll have to adjust. <div class="quote_poster">igotask8board Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">What? Hayes lacks athleticism? Juwan Howard is a lot less athletic than Hayes. I'm sure you mean something else. Hayes skies for those rebounds, blocks more shots, and he's quick. I agree, he does have trouble finishing around the rim sometimes, but he's working on it. Forgetting about the last game he has really improved his layups a lot lately. It makes so much more sense to start Hayes. More than half of his field goals come off T-Mac's assists. He rebounds the ball well next to Yao, while Yao is posting up 10 ft away from the basket, Hayes finds a way to steal the rebound. Howard gives us a guy to go down low to when Yao sits, as well as scoriing off the bench. Leave it the way it is, I'm sure JVG has it that way for a reason. If Hayes does not show up in the first two games of the playoffs, I'm sure the correct adjustments would be made.</div> With all due respect........ we can't wait till we're down 2-0 to find out that Howard should've been starting. Utah will most likely use the same strategy Phoenix used. It's lot easier for them to guard Yao when fronting him and doubling with Chuck's man. It completley throws our offense off.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Look I know ur a pure stats guy. We all know that by now. Stats are important, very important. But some things call for good basketball judgement. This is ur weakness.</div> Your "basketball judgement" led you to say that a lineup of McGrady, Snyder, Bonzi, Battier, and Howard would be effective against the Jazz. Your weakness is that you have neither good basketball judgement nor an understanding of what the "stats" show has worked. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">I'm not sayin going strictly by stats is bad, because as we all know even I myself use them from time to time.</div> Yes. You use them "from time to time", when it supports your argument, and conveniently ignore them when it doesn't. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">But regular season stats don't neccesarily translate to playoff stats. Which means just because our record with Chuck starting was good in the regular season, doesn't mean we'll have the same success against the elite teams like Phoenix, Utah, San Antonio or Dallas. As you saw against Phoenix, they completley embarrassed Chuck Hayes. </div> I see. So never mind what happens in the regular season; the playoffs are different. Is that your argument now? If so, then explain to me how the Bucks game or the Suns game "proved" you were right about what will work in the playoffs. Geez, have some consistency please. I even said I'd look specifically at what Chuck and Juwan did against the elite teams we'd face in the playoffs. But I guess that would mean nothing to you either (unless, of course, it showed that Juwan was more effective against them). So, when Juwan played well against Phoenix in one game -- that proved he was going to be a difference maker for us in the playoffs. But looking at what they did against the elite teams over a large sample of games obviously doesn't mean anything. It's only the regular season, after all. Brilliant logic, there! I think I'll take the common sense approach here. The best indicator of what will work in the playoffs is what worked in the regular season against similar competition. That makes more sense to me than your approach -- "the best indicator of what will work in the playoffs is what I said would work in the summer, regardless of what actually happened in the regular season". <div class="quote_poster">Quoting Rock4life:</div><div class="quote_post">It's a simple question of defense or offense. Our team is already defensivlely pure, that'll never change. But the fact is the more we score the more our chances increase of winning. Thereofore, Juwan should start in the playoffs. We can't risk Chuck repeately gettin his shot swatted in the first row (ex: Amare & Marion) in the 1st quarter of games. Utah is definatley going to force Chuck to make shots. Since his range is limited, they'll be able to bother Yao and still get back to cover the rim. We'll have to adjust.</div> Firstly, it's not a question of defense or offense. Its a question of defense AND offense. You only want to look at offense, and you take for granted that our defense will always be there. That's what knowledgeable basketball fans would call poor "basketball judgement". The evidence is overwhelming that our defense is not near as good when Juwan has been on the court instead of Chuck. Next, you say that Utah will also keep swatting Chuck's shot like Phoenix. Wrong. Utah has only one decent shot blocker among their starters, and that's Kirilenko. And he's going to be focused on McGrady, not Chuck. ---- Ok, for the hell of it, I have looked at their performance against the "elite teams" (Phoenix, Dallas, San Antonio, Utah, Detroit, and Miami). You said one game against Phoenix proved Juwan was more effective. Well, I think we get a better picture looking at all the games against these teams in total, instead of picking and choosing. These are the games I'm looking at: <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>11/01@UTA<br/>11/04DAL<br/>11/14 SA<br/>11/18 @DET<br/>11/12@MIA<br/>11/29@PHO<br/>12/22@SA<br/>01/05UTA<br/>01/16@DAL<br/>01/17PHO<br/>01/24@SA<br/>02/09@DAL<br/>02/15DAL<br/>02/21MIA<br/>03/03SA<br/>03/12@PHO<br/>03/22DET<br/>04/01UTA<br/>04/16PHO<br/></div> First, here are their individual numbers. Last column represents their overall effectiveness, by the numbers. Juwan's played a few more minutes, but by the numbers Chuck has outperformed him against these teams. And the difference is more when Yao and T-Mac both have played. <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/><br/>Chuck Overall against "Elite Teams"<br/>mpgpts/40reb/40ast/40to/40stl/40blk/40pf/40TS%GS/40<br/>18.6 9.211.60.9 1.01.8 0.5 7.5 55.4% 9.5<br/><br/>Juwan Overall against "Elite Teams"<br/>mpgpts/40reb/40ast/40to/40stl/40blk/40pf/40TS%GS/40<br/>26.8 13.17.51.4 1.40.2 0.2 3.2 48.4% 8.2<br/><br/>Chuck against "Elite Teams" with TMac and Yao Starting<br/>mpgpts/40reb/40ast/40to/40stl/40blk/40pf/40TS%GS/40<br/>19.6 11.0 13.50.5 1.01.5 0.3 7.5 51.8% 10.1<br/><br/>Juwan against "Elite Teams" with TMac and Yao Starting<br/>mpgpts/40reb/40ast/40to/40stl/40blk/40pf/40TS%GS/40<br/>22.8 10.58.60.9 0.40.2 0.2 2.9 49.1% 8.6<br/></div> That's all well an good, but it doesn't necessarily translate to team success. How have the Rockets as a team performed with them on the court? Here's that information for all the above games (except the last one, which I'll add when that info is available): <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>Team Performance with Player on court <br/>min tm_ptsopp_ptsoff48def48net48<br/>Chuck 275528 52492.1 91.4+0.7<br/>Juwan 374696 75296.4104.2-7.8<br/><br/>Team Performance with Player and Yao and T-Mac on court <br/>min tm_ptsopp_ptsoff48def48net48<br/>Chuck71146 12399.1 83.5+15.6<br/>Juwan46 80 10883.0112.0-29.0 <br/><br/>Team Performance with Player, Yao, Tmac, Battier, and Rafer on court<br/>min tm_ptsopp_ptsoff48def48net48<br/>Chuck68138 11398.0 80.3+17.8<br/>Juwan36 728297.4110.9-13.5<br/></div> Again, I'm looking strictly our performance against the "elite teams". You think one game somehow proves that Juwan is more effective, but in fact if you look at what we've done against these teams over the entire season, we were far more effective when Chuck was on the court. And the disparity only increases when you look at what they've each done playing along the other starters. So, what's your next excuse Rock4life?
Rock, you said that defensively Hayes isn't all that, and that you don't lose much putting Howard in. Can you explain why John Hollinger chose this following list for his all defensive team? First Team: C - Jermaine O'neal PF - Tim Duncan SF - Shane Battier SG - Bruce Bowen PG - Devin Harris Second Team: C - Jason Collins PF - Chuck Hayes SF - Tayshaun Prince SG - Anthony Parker PG - Rajon Rondo I'm sure he didn't pull Chuck's name out of his ass, and chuck certainly isn't overrated or well known around the league. You can knock on statistics all you want, but numbers don't lie. They tell you what you want to know. They can mislead, but only if you don't understand how they are used. If you truly understood statistics, then you would know what they do and don't tell you. If you say numbers are misleading, then How do you explain the lineup of Yao, Tmac, Battier, Rafer with Chuck versus with Howard? How do you argue against that discrency? Thats right, you can't and you won't. I have yet to see you provide a valid excuse in which a certain statistic can be discounted. You always reply..."well you cant only look at stats", yet you never provide why the specific stats can't be relied on.
<div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post"> Your "basketball judgement" led you to say that a lineup of McGrady, Snyder, Bonzi, Battier, and Howard would be effective against the Jazz. Your weakness is that you have neither good basketball judgement nor an understanding of what the "stats" show has worked.</div> How would you know that lineup isn't effective? It's NEVER been used. Great judgement <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">:Yes. You use them "from time to time", when it supports your argument, and conveniently ignore them when it doesn't.</div> I use them when neccesary, but I get most of my conclusions from watching the actual game. You should try it sometime............ <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I see. So never mind what happens in the regular season; the playoffs are different. Is that your argument now? If so, then explain to me how the Bucks game or the Suns game "proved" you were right about what will work in the playoffs. Geez, have some consistency please.</div> I've alwayz been consistent. You haven't done a good job of dicrediting me, so most of you resort to twisting my words around. 3 things you need in the playoffs: -Experience -Leadership -Mental Focus These are the attributes a starting team needs. None of which register in ur +/- stats Although Chuck has played well around Yao, Phoenix exposed him by fronting Yao and doubling while cheating off Chuck. Not only did it force Hayes to score, it made it hard for Yao to get the ball. When it comes down to it I have more confidence in Juwan as a starter. He has enuff experience in the playoffs which will increase his mental focus. Plus he's a natural leader. We can't afford to have any glaring weakness's with our starting group. <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">:I even said I'd look specifically at what Chuck and Juwan did against the elite teams we'd face in the playoffs. But I guess that would mean nothing to you either (unless, of course, it showed that Juwan was more effective against them). So, when Juwan played well against Phoenix in one game -- that proved he was going to be a difference maker for us in the playoffs. But looking at what they did against the elite teams over a large sample of games obviously doesn't mean anything. It's only the regular season, after all. Brilliant logic, there!</div> It's bigger than just Phoenix. Ur missing the point. Juwan's overrall game will make it easier for Yao to get the ball. Especially with him hitting his shots now. Teams will not be able to front Yao and cheat. Juwan hasn't started many games with Yao & Tmac this year, so why do you throw ur +/- stats around without mentioning that. Knowing Juwan's overrall game, he's a better fit for the playoffs. Hayes is also foulprone. We can't afford to put them on the line early. <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I think I'll take the common sense approach here. The best indicator of what will work in the playoffs is what worked in the regular season against similar competition. That makes more sense to me than your approach -- "the best indicator of what will work in the playoffs is what I said would work in the summer, regardless of what actually happened in the regular season".</div> Obcourse.....But certain strategies against Yao hurt us. If we have a history of having problems with a certain strategy, why wouldn't you adjust? It's "good judgement". Regardless of ur senseless tirades, Juwan isn't a bad defender at all. <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">:Firstly, it's not a question of defense or offense. Its a question of defense AND offense. You only want to look at offense, and you take for granted that our defense will always be there. That's what knowledgeable basketball fans would call poor "basketball judgement". The evidence is overwhelming that our defense is not near as good when Juwan has been on the court instead of Chuck. </div> According to what? Ur +/- stats. I'd still rather go off watching the actual game. Both players have their bad momments defensivley and both have made good plays defensivley. Even if it's about defense AND offense, that favors Juwan. He's the better OVERRALL player on both sides. You lose in that aspect............ <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">:Next, you say that Utah will also keep swatting Chuck's shot like Phoenix. Wrong. Utah has only one decent shot blocker among their starters, and that's Kirilenko. And he's going to be focused on McGrady, not Chuck.</div> If you had actually WATCHED the game you'd know that Utah stuck DEREK FISHER on Mcgrady, not Kirilenko This is my frustration with you. You come to the majority of ur conclusions without even watching the game. You should try it, it could be really helpful <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">:Team Performance with Player on court min tm_pts opp_pts off48 def48 net48 Chuck 275 528 524 92.1 91.4 +0.7 Juwan 374 696 752 96.4 104.2 -7.8 Team Performance with Player and Yao and T-Mac on court min tm_pts opp_pts off48 def48 net48 Chuck 71 146 123 99.1 83.5 +15.6 Juwan 46 80 108 83.0 112.0 -29.0 Team Performance with Player, Yao, Tmac, Battier, and Rafer on court min tm_pts opp_pts off48 def48 net48 Chuck 68 138 113 98.0 80.3 +17.8 Juwan 36 72 82 97.4 110.9 -13.5 [/code] Again, I'm looking strictly our performance against the "elite teams". You think one game somehow proves that Juwan is more effective, but in fact if you look at what we've done against these teams over the entire season, we were far more effective when Chuck was on the court. And the disparity only increases when you look at what they've each done playing along the other starters. So, what's your next excuse Rock4life?</div> There is absolutley no excuse. My argument is Juwan should start in the playoffs. Due to the fact that Utah will most likely use the same strategy Phoenix did. Givin that fact, it's right that Howard start.
<div class="quote_poster">foo82 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post"> I'm sure he didn't pull Chuck's name out of his ass, and chuck certainly isn't overrated or well known around the league.</div> Definitely man. Chuck Hayes is a good defender. Even though he is undersized for his position, he has some strength to guard big players. Also, he is I believe #2 in charges drawn behind Shane Battier. <div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post"> There is absolutley no excuse. My argument is Juwan should start in the playoffs. Due to the fact that Utah will most likely use the same strategy Phoenix did. Givin that fact, it's right that Howard start.</div> I agree with that argument. Me being a fan of Chuck Hayes, I believe Juwan should start. Not because I like him better, which I dont, but because of his jumper from 15 and in. Teams have been very successful against us when they double up on Yao and leave Hayes open. Hayes isn't a shooter, which is why he leads the league in lay-ups made. I think Juwan should start in playoffs due to the fact that he has a touch from 15 and in. Utah will most likely double up on Yao to prevent him from scoring in the paint and they will leave Hayes open since he can't shoot. This is where Howard helps. If teams double Yao and leave Howard open, he can knock down the jumper. Eventually, if Howard hits his shots, Utah will take the double away. Then we can feed Yao.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post"> There is absolutley no excuse. My argument is Juwan should start in the playoffs. Due to the fact that Utah will most likely use the same strategy Phoenix did. Givin that fact, it's right that Howard start.</div> I agree with that argument. Me being a fan of Chuck Hayes, I believe Juwan should start. Not because I like him better, which I dont, but because of his jumper from 15 and in. Teams have been very successful against us when they double up on Yao and leave Hayes open. Hayes isn't a shooter, which is why he leads the league in lay-ups made. I think Juwan should start in playoffs due to the fact that he has a touch from 15 and in. Utah will most likely double up on Yao to prevent him from scoring in the paint and they will leave Hayes open since he can't shoot. This is where Howard helps. If teams double Yao and leave Howard open, he can knock down the jumper. Eventually, if Howard hits his shots, Utah will take the double away. Then we can feed Yao.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">How would you know that lineup isn't effective? It's NEVER been used.</div> That's where the "judgement" comes in. We've never played Deke, Tsakalidis, and Yao at the same time either. Why don't we try that! <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">I use them when neccesary, but I get most of my conclusions from watching the actual game. You should try it sometime............</div> No one can see and grasp everything that happens during a game, in real time. Trust me, you're not that smart. That's why every coaching staff in the league relies on charting advanced, detailed stats throughout the game. And they review those stats at halftime, and in between games. It's fine to draw conclusions from watching games. We all do that. However, it's stubborn stupidity to stick with conclusions that are contradicted by the recorded evidence. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">These are the attributes a starting team needs. None of which register in ur +/- stats Although Chuck has played well around Yao, Phoenix exposed him by fronting Yao and doubling while cheating off Chuck. </div> If it doesn't register at all in terms of point differential, then it is meaningless. All those intangibles you listed mean nothing if it doesn't translate into helping you outscore the other team. This is a concept you still haven't grasped, apparently. Or maybe your brain just shuts off when you see numbers on the screen, so you don't get what they mean. I haven't discounted that possibility either. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">It's bigger than just Phoenix. Ur missing the point. Juwan's overrall game will make it easier for Yao to get the ball. Especially with him hitting his shots now. Teams will not be able to front Yao and cheat. Juwan hasn't started many games with Yao & Tmac this year, so why do you throw ur +/- stats around without mentioning that. Knowing Juwan's overrall game, he's a better fit for the playoffs. Hayes is also foulprone. We can't afford to put them on the line early.</div> Bottom line -- what wins is outscoring the other team (duh). We've consistently outscored the other team better when we have Hayes on the floor with Yao and McGrady. If what you say actually is significant, then we would have outscored the good teams when Juwan was sharing the court with Yao and McGrady. Overall, we haven't done so. If you want to break it down further, both sides have argued that the key to this series will be rebounding. We're a much better rebounding team when Chuck is on the court. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Obcourse.....But certain strategies against Yao hurt us. If we have a history of having problems with a certain strategy, why wouldn't you adjust? It's "good judgement". Regardless of ur senseless tirades, Juwan isn't a bad defender at all. </div> What does "history" show? It shows that we are much better against the elite teams with Yao, McGrady, and Chuck than with Yao, McGrady, and Juwan. I'm not saying Juwan is a bad defender. He has his moments. I'm saying we're a much better defensive team with Chuck than with Juwan, in general. That's particularly true when we play against good offensive teams. That's a fact, if you care to look at it objectively. But the only time you want to look at something objectively is when it happens to back up the conclusions you've made subjectively. And when the evidence contradicts your already established conclusions, then you say the evidence doesn't mean anything. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post"> <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">The evidence is overwhelming that our defense is not near as good when Juwan has been on the court instead of Chuck.</div> According to what? Ur +/- stats. I'd still rather go off watching the actual game. </div> According to our team's defensive stats with Chuck in the game, compared to when Juwan is in the game, regardless of the other teammates on the floor. When Chuck is on the court, opposing teams don't score nearly as much. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">If you had actually WATCHED the game you'd know that Utah stuck DEREK FISHER on Mcgrady, not Kirilenko This is my frustration with you. You come to the majority of ur conclusions without even watching the game. You should try it, it could be really helpful </div> You can expect Kirilenko to guard McGrady for much of the series. Fisher isn't a viable defensive option for the Jazz against McGrady, and Sloan will figure that out quick. And if Kirilenko isn't guarding McGrady, then he'll be on Battier. Their inside front court players (Boozer and Okur) don't block shots, while Amare and Marion do. So your theory that they will be swatting his shots all game long like Phoenix is silly. Jerry Sloan doesn't like to double down on post players as much as D'Antoni either. Different personnel, AND different defensive philosophy. ---------------- You've been saying all along that none of these "stats" will translate to the playoffs. Actually, in the offseason you said Chuck's stats wouldn't translate over the course of a full regular season, but nevermind that. Now that the playoffs are here, are you predicting that Juwan will be more effective for us than Chuck? And be specific -- what type of production will they give us? Put it in terms of mpg, ppg, rpg, fg%, etc. that you think they're capable of if they got the minutes you feel they deserve. I also assume you think we'd be better when Juwan+Yao+McGrady are on the floor together compared to when Chuck+Yao+McGrady are on the floor together, right? Here's my prediction for some of their stats (along with the MPG I'd like them to get): Chuck : 24 mpg, 5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 3.5 pf/g, 55 fg% Juwan : 24 mpg, 7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.5 pf/g, 44 fg% I also expect that we will outscore Utah by a greater margin when Chuck is on the court compared to when Juwan is on the court. Our defense will be signifantly better with Chuck, and our offense with Juwan will be marginally better. And, what the hell, I'll also predict that Yao's offensive numbers will be at least as strong with Chuck on the court as with Juwan on the court.
<div class="quote_poster">Umair Wrote</div><div class="quote_post"> I agree with that argument. Me being a fan of Chuck Hayes, I believe Juwan should start. </div> I lost track. Is this your flip, or your flop?
<div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">That's where the "judgement" comes in. We've never played Deke, Tsakalidis, and Yao at the same time either. Why don't we try that! </div> Jus because Durvasa co-sign on a lineup doesn't mean it won't be effective. Besides Bonzi, Snyder & Tmac are our most athletic players. Don Nelson makes a living off lineups like that...... <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">No one can see and grasp everything that happens during a game, in real time. Trust me, you're not that smart. That's why every coaching staff in the league relies on charting advanced, detailed stats throughout the game. And they review those stats at halftime, and in between games. </div> Coaches rely on a variety of things. But the majority of ur conclusion are drawn from +/- stats. Example, "Chuck's a better defender than Juwan because according to my +/- stats, the team plays much better". In reality, you can't rely to heavily on that without watching the games. Too many different variable ur missing. <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">It's fine to draw conclusions from watching games. We all do that. However, it's stubborn stupidity to stick with conclusions that are contradicted by the recorded evidence.</div> Recorded evidence...... +/- stats are not recorded evidence lol. Evidence of what? I'm sure I could bring up some crazy +/- stat that'll lean in my favor. The only way you can be fair (from ur stats) is if Chuck & Howard split the minutes/games with the starters thru a whole season. With Yao, Mcgrady & Battier on the court anybody's +/- is gonna be good. What me and Umair are saying is that giving the strategy that Utah's probably gonna use, the advantage better suits Juwan. <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">If it doesn't register at all in terms of point differential, then it is meaningless. All those intangibles you listed mean nothing if it doesn't translate into helping you outscore the other team. This is a concept you still haven't grasped, apparently. Or maybe your brain just shuts off when you see numbers on the screen, so you don't get what they mean. I haven't discounted that possibility either.</div> I don't get it. Experience, leadership & mental focus are register on the court. There what seperate a good team from GREAT team. I'm sure you cant measure them with ur +/- stats, but you notice them by watching the game. No wonder you underestimate that aspect <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Bottom line -- what wins is outscoring the other team (duh). We've consistently outscored the other team better when we have Hayes on the floor with Yao and McGrady. If what you say actually is significant, then we would have outscored the good teams when Juwan was sharing the court with Yao and McGrady. Overall, we haven't done so.</div> How did you come this conclusion. With Juwan playin like he's playing, this shouldn't even be a question. He's rebounding, playin defense AND scoring. He's obviously stepped up his game for the playoffs. Why can't you comprehend this? You'd rather let Utah jump out to a 15-0 lead by fronting Yao and cheating off Chuck than simply start Howard. I guess <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">What does "history" show? It shows that we are much better against the elite teams with Yao, McGrady, and Chuck than with Yao, McGrady, and Juwan. I'm not saying Juwan is a bad defender. He has his moments. I'm saying we're a much better defensive team with Chuck than with Juwan, in general. That's particularly true when we play against good offensive teams. That's a fact, if you care to look at it objectively. But the only time you want to look at something objectively is when it happens to back up the conclusions you've made subjectively. And when the evidence contradicts your already established conclusions, then you say the evidence doesn't mean anything.</div> Listen, this is the playoffs. Teams are gonna take our weakness and attempt to exploit it. We're at our worst when Yao can't get the ball. The ONLY way teams have had success against Yao is when they've used the "zone doubling" approach. Yao hasn't mastered the lob pass, and we have problems throwin it. Juwan's midrange game kills the strategy right off the bat. He should start, PERIOD. <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">You can expect Kirilenko to guard McGrady for much of the series. Fisher isn't a viable defensive option for the Jazz against McGrady, and Sloan will figure that out quick. And if Kirilenko isn't guarding McGrady, then he'll be on Battier. Their inside front court players (Boozer and Okur) don't block shots, while Amare and Marion do. So your theory that they will be swatting his shots all game long like Phoenix is silly. Jerry Sloan doesn't like to double down on post players as much as D'Antoni either. Different personnel, AND different defensive philosophy.</div> Why would they change strategies? Remember Durvasa, they BEAT us with Fisher on Mcgrady. Not saying Kirilenko won't spend time on Tmac, but Utah have always let Fisher do the majority of work on him. I can see you haven't really watched the Utah vs Houston games this season. <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">You've been saying all along that none of these "stats" will translate to the playoffs. Actually, in the offseason you said Chuck's stats wouldn't translate over the course of a full regular season, but nevermind that. Now that the playoffs are here, are you predicting that Juwan will be more effective for us than Chuck? And be specific -- what type of production will they give us? Put it in terms of mpg, ppg, rpg, fg%, etc. that you think they're capable of if they got the minutes you feel they deserve. I also assume you think we'd be better when Juwan+Yao+McGrady are on the floor together compared to when Chuck+Yao+McGrady are on the floor together, right?</div> I predict Howard will be the X-factor in this series. These are my predicted numbers: <div align="center">Juwan Howard</div> 17pts 8rebs 2assist 48fg% 85%FT 35minutes There you have it...................Howard will play BIG this series. Trust me. <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Here's my prediction for some of their stats (along with the MPG I'd like them to get): Chuck : 24 mpg, 5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 3.5 pf/g, 55 fg% Juwan : 24 mpg, 7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.5 pf/g, 44 fg%</div> This is gonna be fun <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I also expect that we will outscore Utah by a greater margin when Chuck is on the court compared to when Juwan is on the court. Our defense will be signifantly better with Chuck, and our offense with Juwan will be marginally better. And, what the hell, I'll also predict that Yao's offensive numbers will be at least as strong with Chuck on the court as with Juwan on the court.</div> You think ur slick! Being that JVG will most likely start Chuck, his +/- will probably be higher. Not a great indicator on who's gonna play better.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Jus because Durvasa co-sign on a lineup doesn't mean it won't be effective. Besides Bonzi, Snyder & Tmac are our most athletic players. Don Nelson makes a living off lineups like that......</div> But Nelson isn't our coach. We don't play his style of offense. And Tmac-Snyder-Bonzi-Battier-Howard isn't nearly as athletic/quick as Davis-Ellis-Richardson-Jackson-Harrington. And that lineup isn't nearly as potent behind the 3-point line. We don't have the personnel to pull off Nellie-ball. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Coaches rely on a variety of things. But the majority of ur conclusion are drawn from +/- stats. Example, "Chuck's a better defender than Juwan because according to my +/- stats, the team plays much better". In reality, you can't rely to heavily on that without watching the games. Too many different variable ur missing. </div> Wrong. I'm not just relying on "+/-" stats. I'm relying on our team's defensive stats (FG%, defensive rebounding, anything that goes into playing good defense) when certain players are on the court. Also, Chuck forces more turnovers and gets more defensive rebounds. There's a significant disparity between our defensive efficiency when Chuck plays with the rest of the starters and when Juwan plays with the rest of the starters. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Recorded evidence...... +/- stats are not recorded evidence lol. Evidence of what? I'm sure I could bring up some crazy +/- stat that'll lean in my favor. The only way you can be fair (from ur stats) is if Chuck & Howard split the minutes/games with the starters thru a whole season. With Yao, Mcgrady & Battier on the court anybody's +/- is gonna be good. What me and Umair are saying is that giving the strategy that Utah's probably gonna use, the advantage better suits Juwan. </div> See, you don't even pay attention. On numerous occassions I've posted their +/- specifically when they're playing alongside Yao, McGrady, and Battier. Those numbers I posted up above against the elite teams -- that's specifically looking at their +/- playing alongside certain teammates. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">I don't get it. Experience, leadership & mental focus are register on the court. There what seperate a good team from GREAT team. I'm sure you cant measure them with ur +/- stats, but you notice them by watching the game. No wonder you underestimate that aspect</div> Do you even know what +/- stats measure? They measure point differential when certain combinations of players are on the court. If they those intangibles do register on the court in any meaningful way, then of course that should be evident from the point differential. I think those things are important, mind you, and extra consideration should certainly be given to them for the playoffs. But, ultimately, it has to translate into improving our ability to outscore the other team. Right? And frankly there's no proof that Juwan's intangibles improved our chances of winning against the good teams compared to Chuck's. If that's what you expect will happen, fine. We'll see. Just don't act like what happened in the regular season somehow supports that expectation, because it doesn't. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">How did you come this conclusion. With Juwan playin like he's playing, this shouldn't even be a question. He's rebounding, playin defense AND scoring. He's obviously stepped up his game for the playoffs. Why can't you comprehend this? You'd rather let Utah jump out to a 15-0 lead by fronting Yao and cheating off Chuck than simply start Howard. I guess </div> That hasn't happened at all in the regular season. We've easily been at our best against the elite teams in the first and third quarters when Chuck, Yao, and McGrady have both been on the floor. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Listen, this is the playoffs. Teams are gonna take our weakness and attempt to exploit it. We're at our worst when Yao can't get the ball. The ONLY way teams have had success against Yao is when they've used the "zone doubling" approach. Yao hasn't mastered the lob pass, and we have problems throwin it. Juwan's midrange game kills the strategy right off the bat. He should start, PERIOD. </div> Yao played 503 minutes next to Chuck Hayes this season. In that time, he averaged 31 points per 40 minutes played, 3.8 turnovers per 40 minutes played, and he shot 54.5% from the field. Yao played 435 minutes next to Juwan this season. In that time, he averaged 30 points per 40 minutes played, 5.0 turnovers per 40 minutes played, and he shot 48.5% from the field. Offensively, he was clearly more effective with Chuck than with Juwan this season. If it was so obvious that teams can exploit Chuck to shut down Yao, how did he score all those points with that efficiency? <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Why would they change strategies? Remember Durvasa, they BEAT us with Fisher on Mcgrady. Not saying Kirilenko won't spend time on Tmac, but Utah have always let Fisher do the majority of work on him. I can see you haven't really watched the Utah vs Houston games this season. </div> The point is their interior defenders in this series will be Boozer and Okur, and neither of them are good shot blockers. Kirilenko is going to be drawn to the perimeter, either guarding McGrady or Battier. That's my main point. And I expect Kirilenko will usually matchup with McGrady. We'll just see how that plays out. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">I predict Howard will be the X-factor in this series. These are my predicted numbers: <div align="center">Juwan Howard</div> 17pts 8rebs 2assist 48fg% 85%FT [B35minutes There you have it...................Howard will play BIG this series. Trust me. This is gonna be fun </div> Alright. And if Juwan plays less than 35 mpg, to be fair we can extrapolate his numbers to 35 minutes. For instance, if he only plays 20 mpg, we multiply his ppg, rpg, etc. to scale it up to what he'd get if he played 35 minutes. Is that acceptable? Also, include what you think Chuck will produce (again, given the minutes you think he deserves). I think I'll give Juwan a little more credit. He'll put up better numbers than my initial prediction. I'll put it at 8 pts and 6 reb, 45 fg% in 26 minutes per game. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">You think ur slick! Being that JVG will most likely start Chuck, his +/- will probably be higher. Not a great indicator on who's gonna play better.</div> We'll compare their +/- specifically when they're playing alongside Yao-McGrady-Battier. And I'll track what Yao does offensively when Chuck is on the court and when Juwan is on the court. Agreed? Also, what's your prediction for the series if Chuck starts every game and plays around 20 mpg (like he did in the regular season)? Do we win or lose, and how many games? I say we win in 7.
<div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I lost track. Is this your flip, or your flop? </div> At the beginning of the season, I thought Juwan would do better due to Hayes' lack of experience, but Hayes proved me wrong. He imo turned out to be the better out of the two. I dont want to go in to a Hayes vs. Howard battle, but what I am saying is that Howard should start in playoffs. Teams have locked down Yao's post of game with one strategy. That strategy is doubling Yao and leaving Hayes open. What that does is it allows Hayes to get open 7 feet and out but it doubles Yao. If Howard is in there, teams are likely not to double Yao up because Juwan is capable of knocking the 15 footer down. So, imo, the smarter thing to do is start Juwan, which will allow Yao to get more post ups. If Yao can get more touches, Houston will be unspottable. I love Hayes way more than Howard, but the thing is, Hayes doesnt have a jumper which will allow other teams to double on Yao.
<div class="quote_poster">Umair Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">At the beginning of the season, I thought Juwan would do better due to Hayes' lack of experience, but Hayes proved me wrong. He imo turned out to be the better out of the two. I dont want to go in to a Hayes vs. Howard battle, but what I am saying is that Howard should start in playoffs. Teams have locked down Yao's post of game with one strategy. That strategy is doubling Yao and leaving Hayes open. What that does is it allows Hayes to get open 7 feet and out but it doubles Yao. If Howard is in there, teams are likely not to double Yao up because Juwan is capable of knocking the 15 footer down. So, imo, the smarter thing to do is start Juwan, which will allow Yao to get more post ups. If Yao can get more touches, Houston will be unspottable. I love Hayes way more than Howard, but the thing is, Hayes doesnt have a jumper which will allow other teams to double on Yao.</div> Well, Utah does not have a significant front court presence. Doubling off of Hayes man is a huge mistake, since an inside pass to Hayes would do the trick (more reliable than Juwan's jumpshot). You won't have the shotblocking threat from Okur or Boozer, therefor there is a good percentage that Chuck would make those. You may have a point if we were playing phoenix, but we have consistently shown that we CAN score in the first quarter. In fact...remember those stretches of games where we scored 30+ in the first quarter? All that was with Chuck in there. There is a problem offensively when howard is with the rest of the starters. Watch the games and you will notice it too. Juwan tends the hold the ball once it gets in his hands. He likes to back it up and shoot. It's like the ball comes to a stop. While theres nothing wrong with that coming from the bench (where we are in need of scoring), our offense (starters primarily who like to shoot open shots) relies on ball movement. We need to constantly keep the ball moving. The thing about Hayes is that once he gets the ball, its out of his hands and into the basket really quickly. Since we also rely on Yao posting, he is not going to be rebounding as much, and Hayes is a much better rebounder than Juwan. Also I want you to address the issue of our bench. If Hayes comes off the bench, wouldnt there really be a lack of offense? Each player has their own role, and I feel Juwan's role is much more needed coming off the bench (not like thats a bad thing, not sure why people associate bench = inferior player). This is especially true when playing next to Deke. Tell me would you prefer Howard and Deke, Chuck and Yao combo, or Chuck and Deke, Howard and Yao combo. Durvasa, its obvious from his posts he doesnt understand +/- stats. He just sees a bunch of numbers and his mind shuts off (I'm not even sure he even looks at them). Theres really no use dragging it further. In fact, I have yet to see him directly comment on any of those numbers rather than making a vague sweeping accusation that you do not watch the games...(who says you can't go off stats AND watch the game).
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post"> With all due respect........ we can't wait till we're down 2-0 to find out that Howard should've been starting. Utah will most likely use the same strategy Phoenix used. It's lot easier for them to guard Yao when fronting him and doubling with Chuck's man. It completley throws our offense off.</div> I can respect that, but getting stopped by 2 of the more athletic players in the league shouldn't put Chuck's athleticism in the same category as Juwans. Besides it was one fast paced game.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post"> With all due respect........ we can't wait till we're down 2-0 to find out that Howard should've been starting. Utah will most likely use the same strategy Phoenix used. It's lot easier for them to guard Yao when fronting him and doubling with Chuck's man. It completley throws our offense off.</div> I can respect that, but getting stopped by 2 of the more athletic players in the league shouldn't put Chuck's athleticism in the same category as Juwans. Besides it was one fast-paced game.
<div class="quote_poster">foo82 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Well, Utah does not have a significant front court presence. Doubling off of Hayes man is a huge mistake, since an inside pass to Hayes would do the trick (more reliable than Juwan's jumpshot). You won't have the shotblocking threat from Okur or Boozer, therefor there is a good percentage that Chuck would make those. You may have a point if we were playing phoenix, but we have consistently shown that we CAN score in the first quarter. In fact...remember those stretches of games where we scored 30+ in the first quarter? All that was with Chuck in there.</div> First off, sayin Hayes's offense is more reliable than Juwan's proves you have absolutley no clue what ur talkin about. Hayes doesn't take many shots, so his shot fg% is going to be naturaly high. But like I told Durvasa, if you WATCH the game you'd know that he has problems finishing with somebody guarding the rim. Kirilenko IS a shotblocker, and he WILL block Chuck's shot in the front row. Fisher's most likely gonna be guarding Mcgrady leaving Kirilenko to float around the court. <div class="quote_poster">foo82 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">There is a problem offensively when howard is with the rest of the starters. Watch the games and you will notice it too. Juwan tends the hold the ball once it gets in his hands. He likes to back it up and shoot. It's like the ball comes to a stop. While theres nothing wrong with that coming from the bench (where we are in need of scoring), our offense (starters primarily who like to shoot open shots) relies on ball movement. We need to constantly keep the ball moving. The thing about Hayes is that once he gets the ball, its out of his hands and into the basket really quickly. Since we also rely on Yao posting, he is not going to be rebounding as much, and Hayes is a much better rebounder than Juwan.</div> Juwan posts up when he wants to, not because he's force too. The "ball stopping" ur talkin about is pure imagination lol. Juwan's a much better passer than Chuck and overrall player. Though Chuck is a better rebounder, Howard is very capable of getting you 4 or 5 offensive rebounds as well. So the gap isn't as big as ur makin it out to be. <div class="quote_poster">foo82 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Also I want you to address the issue of our bench. If Hayes comes off the bench, wouldnt there really be a lack of offense? Each player has their own role, and I feel Juwan's role is much more needed coming off the bench (not like thats a bad thing, not sure why people associate bench = inferior player). This is especially true when playing next to Deke.</div> Well that can all be worked around. If Howard starts, we'll just have too add a couple of kinks to the rotation. Nothin major.......... <div class="quote_poster">foo82 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Durvasa, its obvious from his posts he doesnt understand +/- stats. He just sees a bunch of numbers and his mind shuts off (I'm not even sure he even looks at them). Theres really no use dragging it further. In fact, I have yet to see him directly comment on any of those numbers rather than making a vague sweeping accusation that you do not watch the games...(who says you can't go off stats AND watch the game).</div> Weren't you the one who said that you've never seen Mcgrady run point for us? The ordassity of some you
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">First off, sayin Hayes's offense is more reliable than Juwan's proves you have absolutley no clue what ur talkin about. Hayes doesn't take many shots, so his shot fg% is going to be naturaly high. But like I told Durvasa, if you WATCH the game you'd know that he has problems finishing with somebody guarding the rim. Kirilenko IS a shotblocker, and he WILL block Chuck's shot in the front row. Fisher's most likely gonna be guarding Mcgrady leaving Kirilenko to float around the court. </div> I didn't say his offense was more reliable. I'm saying he is a better finisher. We don't need a person who creates when Tmac and Yao are on the court. We need him on the bench to help the scoring. <div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post"> Juwan posts up when he wants to, not because he's force too. The "ball stopping" ur talkin about is pure imagination lol. Juwan's a much better passer than Chuck and overrall player. Though Chuck is a better rebounder, Howard is very capable of getting you 4 or 5 offensive rebounds as well. So the gap isn't as big as ur makin it out to be. </div> I agree. I didnt say he was forced to. My point is that we need a slightly different role with our starters. Offense isn't really the issue with Tmac and Yao. Different situations call for different needs. On any other team, I would say start Juwan over Hayes, but for our team, Hayes works so much better. For all your knocks of our team being too much of a jump shooting team...you want another jump shooter? <div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post"> Well that can all be worked around. If Howard starts, we'll just have too add a couple of kinks to the rotation. Nothin major..........</div> So...whos going to provide our bench scoring? For all your talks of lineups, you still havent provided us with that. Or are you implying that you still don't want to see Chuck on the floor period...despite all that hes done for us. Do you still think hes a "scrub"? <div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post"> Weren't you the one who said that you've never seen Mcgrady run point for us? The ordassity of some you</div> Don't take words out of my mouth. I said Tmac doesnt run point guard. Sure our offense revolves around him touching the ball, but he IS NOT the point guard. If he is...what the hell is Rafer? Also, Tmac has never played the point guard position for us....It's always Luther or Rafer. Even JVG says that when Rafer isn't in the game, Luther is our backup pg. Are you saying JVG is wrong and that he doesnt even know who plays what position on his own team?
