(OT) Chandler Parsons -- dodged bullet

You need to go back and read what I actually wrote: That his TRB%, AST%, STL% and BLK% are all down and his TOV% is up.

Follow your own link and scroll down to the advanced section. As I said, his raw numbers may be the same, but it takes him 2.5 more MPG to get that same production. If someone produces the same output, but it takes them 10% more time to do so, they are, by definition 10% less efficient.

His PER, WS, WS/48, OBPM, DBPM, BPM and VORP are all down, in spite of shooting better. Why? Because he's less efficient at everything else this year.

We're basically getting 90% of last year's production at 20x the cost. Does that sound like a good deal to you?

BNM

 

The fact that it take 2.5 more minutes to achieve the same stats really does not make a difference to me because his role may have changed due to who he is on the floor with. (i.e ET)

But I think one role that is the same, is the need for him to spread the floor with his 3 point shooting, and since that stat is way up I think he has improved. But of course his contract is not a good deal since we use him off the bench. He will be traded because of it.

 

Dodged a bullet with Parsons.....with Hibbert.....with Monroe.....with Hawes......

Perhaps FA (attempted) signings aren't Neil's strong suit.

 

I didn't specify any reasons (or excuses) for his decreased per minute production, but if you don't like that, look at his per 100 possession production - also down. It's kind of hard to blame a decrease in your per 100 possession production on someone else. The fact is, regardless of the reasons, his production is about 10% less efficient than it was last year. That's easy enough to see.

When Neil and Paul decided to match the BRK offer, I doubt if they would have been excited about a 10% decrease in production. Given his age and improvement the previous season, I think they were hoping for continued improvement, not a decrease in efficiency, or even maintaining the status quo.

BNM

 

You forgot Hedo, but that was Pritchard. Maybe we just suck at the whole free agent thing. It's so hard to draw guys to POR, our GMs get desperate and throw excess money at marginal players - and still get spurned. It's kind of like asking your overweight cousin with bad acne to the prom because all the hot girls are taken, and she says no. In the end, she probably did you a favor.

BNM

 

"10% less efficient than last year" based on advanced stats.....I really don't think that those are the numbers they are concerned with.
Even as much as a stats geek PA may or may not be. I have warmed up to advanced stats in the last few years, but this is a little too miniscule to take seriously.

Your salary comparison on the other hand, is not. He will be moved because of that, not because his advanced stats have gone down 10%. The main stat other teams will be looking at when discussing a trade for him, is his 3pt shooting %. Of which he is 4th in the entire league.

 

Hibbert was a damn good player for at least a couple years after we tried to sign him. Something happened to him in Indy. Rumor was that Paul George slept with his girlfriend or something like that. He's not the same player that he was when we talked to him.

 

Yeah, I was just pointing out the "Mr. Consistent" label was a bit misleading. He has regressed slightly in most areas since his contract year "breakout season".

But, as you say, he's a shooter. Unfortunately, an overpaid, one-dimensional shooter who can't create for himself or others. But, because he's a great catch and shoot 3-point specialist, he could thrive in the right situation, which would make his contract less onerous.

If PHI could get Embiid and Simmons healthy, he'd be a great fit there. Embiid collapses defenses and NEEDS to have a couple great shooters on the floor to create space for him to operate. Ben Simmons is NOT a great shooter, but he is great at creating for others. A guy like Crabbe would be perfect next to those two. The problem is PHI totally overvalues their own players and is cheap as fuck when it comes to paying them. They want too much for them until they are about to become RFAs, then they give them away for pennies on the dollar rather than being faced with having to match a big offer sheet.

BNM

 

Yes, Crabbe is 4th this season in 3FG% (minimum 45 made)

http://bkref.com/tiny/57YFR

but only 26th in 3FG made per minute (if the minimum minutes are his 1710 minutes--i.e. 25 players have played more minutes yet made more 3s per minute--because many shoot more 3s per minute)

http://bkref.com/tiny/fr1Rj

Why is Crabbe only 26th? Stotts has Crabbe shoot in only half the situations that better shooters shoot: Crabbe is a sneaky flow shooter, not an in-your-face clutch shooter.

 

Kanter would have been a good piece though

 

Crabbe is way too passive. He often passes up wide open looks, especially in the 4th quarter. He'd rather defer to Dame or C.J. than take a shot with the game on the line. And don't try to blame this one on Stotts, I often see him encouraging Crabbe to take the shot.

Also, he can't create for himself. He doesn't have a quick release off the pull up, like Dame (or Steph, etc.) or a step back jumper, like Wes or C.J.

So, passive player who can't create for himself == fewer shot attempts == fewer made shots per minute.

BNM

 

True he is not the 4th best 3 point shooter in the league, he just has the 4th best percentage in the league. A skill that teams desire.

 

That's true Efficient scorer and one of the best offensive rebounders in the league. OKC really missed him when he was out.

BNM

 

I wonder how well Crabbe would do if he had plays ran for him like Redick does in LA.
With Nurk on the team now, I don't see why Stotts shouldn't steal a couple sets from the Clippers and run some plays for a 43% three point shooter.
I think Redick has a quicker release than Crabbe. Redick has a few more things in his game than Crabbe, but it's clear Crabbe is most comfortable in catch and shoot situations.

 

One thing about Redick is he never stops moving without the ball. He is irritating to cover. Crabbe seems to do that as well. At least Kevin Harlan commented about it last night during the game.

 

Nurkic has great court vision for a big...he's already found Crabbe open several times from deep and run a couple nifty old school give and goes with him...Nurk is going to make all our players better

 

With a big 3 we now have two scorers who won't get double teamed instead of one

 

Redick is constantly in motion and running off screens. He's much more aggressive than Crabbe. As noted, he has a much quicker release, but he also shoots much better on the move. He doesn't have to have his feet set like Crabbe to be effective.

Best case, Crabbe is a poor man's Kyle Korver. I say best case, because 24-year old Allen Crabbe isn't as good as 35-year old Kyle Korver, and probably never will be. I'm referring more to style than talent. But, unlike Crabbe, Korver has never been shy about getting his shots off. Plus Korver gets to play with LeBron and Kyrie, who can both create for him.

I do think Crabbe would be a better fit somewhere else. As long as we have Dame and C.J., he'll never be a starter and when he is in the game, he always defers to those guys.

BNM

 

In fairness...Chris Paul is an elite passer and Redick benefits from it by moving without the ball...Redick would be a great Stotts type player...I like Redick...like his podcast too..bright guy