OT - Dejuan Blair being annoyingly good

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Rastapopoulos, Oct 6, 2009.

  1. oldmangrouch

    oldmangrouch persona non grata

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    Depends on the circumstances/matchups.

    Travis is only viable as a "PF" if he is teamed with Joel or Oden. If Joel or Oden go down, we need a PF who will hammer the boards - and that isn't Travis!
     
  2. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    I understand why you feel that way, and I feel a bit similarly. But, out of curiosity, why do you think Pritchard passed on him? I'm not implying that Pritchard passing on him automatically means he wasn't worth having, I'm just curious how you reconcile how obvious you feel drafting Blair was with Portland's (presumably) intelligent GM passing on him despite knowing all the arguments that have been put forth in favour of drafting Blair.

    In the Nash/Patterson era, it was easy (and often reasonable) to say "front office incompetence." Generally we don't feel that way about Pritchard, so what do you think his reasons for passing were?

    Again, I'm just curious, not passive aggressively trying to say "In KP we trust." I think it's an interesting exercise to try and reconcile moves that some of us (me included, in this case) think go against the seeming logic of the situation with the smart GM who made those moves. I've gone through that exercise with Billy Beane moves, at times. ;)
     
  3. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    I keep hearing how the Blazers need a back-up PF who can defend. That wasn't Blair. It may not be Pendergraph, either, but it certainly is not Blair. He seems to be a high-volume shooter who needs the ball to be effective in order offset his defensive deficiencies. He had some nice numbers last night, but then, so did Carl Landry against him, on fewer shots, and Landry's team won by 14 points.
     
  4. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    At least for me, part of the frustration of the Pendergraph/Cunningham picks over Blair (and technically Claver as well) was that I don't understand KP's reasoning at all for passing on Blair. I'm generally not an IKPIT-er, but at least in the disagreements I've had with our actions in the past (not making deadline moves, keeping RLEC, etc.) I could understand (though disagree) about the team's mindset for doing or not doing the action.

    But, seriously, what's the downside with Blair? He's already an elite offensive and defensive rebounding machine. His "basketball size" is much better than his height measurement, b/c he has freakishly long arms and LMA-esque hops (do we call LMA unathletic?). I didn't see any of the game he got abused on D in, but he seemed to do pretty well guarding other Big East PFs and C's (the same ones, coincidentally, that Dante guarded) all last year. He knows how to score around the basket. The only red flag I heard the entire draft cycle about him was his ACL issue. So let's dig a bit deeper into that.

    I understand that you don't want to waste a high lotto pick on someone who has no ACLs. But seriously, this guy's been playing high-level college basketball for 2 years without ACLs, and hasn't so much as missed a practice. And when he's played, he's been all-NCAA good. And he's been all-NCAA good in an ability that transitions better to the NBA game than any other measurable college or Euro skill. So it seems that everyone would say "yes, he has the ability to be a good NBA player--even if in a limited skillset for backup PF". Does he have personality issues? Does he get into off-court trouble? From the accounts I've read, he's a saint off the court that does all kinds of charity/community service work and the people around Pittsburgh love him.

    Again, that's not someone I'd use the #5 pick on. But in the offseason we targeted Millsap and Lee. The biggest hole on our roster (after the Miller signing) is 4/5...if LMA goes down we're basically hosed. Our first 3 draft picks were all PFs. So why did KP pass on the best PF in the NCAA last year? It wasn't production, it wasn't a poor positional fit and it wasn't personality. So it seems to me that it was "injury concern". But this is the same guy who took Oden, even with all of his medical red flags--presumably because he thought (and I agree) that a guy with Oden's talent was worth taking anyway. Why did he not think that about Blair, and instead take JP and DC?
     
  5. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    I didn't see the game you're talking about, but I went to the box score and play-by-play . Blair and George Hill were the only ones with positive +/- numbers. He had 19 rebounds in 22 minutes. Of his 15 shots, 10 were layups/tips from rebounds or deep post position. He had 5 jump shots. I don't see that as being a "high-volume shooter" as much as a "super-effective garbageman". And yeah, I'd like him on the team.
     
  6. oldmangrouch

    oldmangrouch persona non grata

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    It's a fair question.

    As you know, I feel the same way Ed does on this subject. In fact, I will take it one step farther and ask why we drafted Claver over Casspi. I cannot reconcile this draft with KP's usual competent, and assertive, approach.

    It is possible that he is gunshy after the Oden situation, and was unwilling to draft Blair due to his knees. That is contradicted by his willingness to draft Claver over Casspi.

    The other theory, which made you really annoyed when I mentioned it before :devilwink: ,is that KP just plain punted the draft this year. He wasn't really interested in adding another player(s) to the mix. If he had drafted Casspi and Blair, they would be fighting Webster and Outlaw for playing time....and the team has too few minutes to keep everybody happy as is!
     
  7. julius

    julius Living on the air in Cincinnati... Staff Member Global Moderator

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    I believe he isn't out for the whole season.
     
  8. RoyIsClutch07

    RoyIsClutch07 Active Member

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    I don't think it's a question or a doubt that he had game. There is something there that the blazers didn't feel comfortable with. Whether if it was character or health. They were non committal. Don't forget the terms KP likes to use. It's a "fit" that he is looking for. Maybe he didn't feel Dejuan fit here. Pendergraph apparently did.

    He had a good game. I don't think it was a fluke or production due to the competition he was facing. I think he is probably that good. But...

    Let's see if he stays healthy.
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2009
  9. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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    I believe there was something with his attitude and character that brought up red flags.
     
  10. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    Agreed. And no obvious answer.

    I don't know much about Casspi, but I think he might have expected to come over NOW. Claver does not, and I don't think there's any opinion/info that his knee might be shot like Blair's are.

    Being gunshy about a guy due to injury, though, is a definite reason.

    That's a possibility.

    Another one? Pendergraph and Cunningham might have been higher rated statistically/quantitatively than Blair. I find it odd that Portland took two senior power forwards in the early second round... if there's some sort of systematic bias towards these players (and bias is not always bad, not) then it would help explain the picks.

    Another one? Maybe Blair has a higher upside. Maybe Blair can be a "plus" starting power forward, while the odds of Pendergraph and Cunningham doing that are lower. But the odds of Blair flaming out (due to injury? Due to lack of physical tools?) may have been considered higher. KP may have chosen not to "swing for the fences", and instead went for the safer picks. Personally, I think you should swing for the fences in the second round, but maybe he figures we already have enough home runs on our team and just need a few singles and doubles to sprinkle in...

    The final option, of course, is that KP and his system just messed up. That they didn't have Blair on their board and didn't react well when he fell to where he was a good value, and that at that point they'd already become invested (emotionally? With agents?) with Penderham. I dunno.

    Ed O.
     
  11. STOMP

    STOMP mere fan

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    dude showed up to the pre-draft 6'5 and 280lbs. What does that say about his professionalism when he shows up that overweight? With questionable knees and poor quickness, what position is he ever going to be able to guard?

    those reasons would be my best guess.

    STOMP
     
  12. VanillaGorilla

    VanillaGorilla Well-Known Member

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    Landry schooled Blair on defense though. Blair will always be a TERRIBLE defender. There is simply no position he can guard well.
     
  13. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    Do you really still feel that that's a likely explanation? Pritchard was willing to bring in Turkoglu to fight with Batum, Webster and Outlaw. He was willing to bring in Millsap (or, apparently, Lee) to fight with Aldridge, Outlaw and, ultimately, Przybilla for minutes. He did bring in Miller, who will definitely cut into Blake's and Bayless' minutes, and probably into Fernandez's minutes, too.

    The draft is clearly something Pritchard invests a lot of importance in, to judge from how active he's always been. Even in this, his most "boring" draft, he made a small move up in the first round. He was clearly willing to upgrade the power forward spot or the small forward spot (Millsap, Lee, Turkoglu)...I don't think "he purposely tanked the draft to avoid having more productive players" really stands up to scrutiny. ;)

    I appreciate your (and Brian's, Ed's and STOMP's) willingness to try and answer the question. I also wanted Blair...I was hoping he'd fall to Portland's first-round pick, let alone their second-rounders. So I'm still trying to understand the move myself. I believe that Pritchard is intelligent, informed and dedicated to his job. So, I'm trying to figure out the reason for passing on Blair with a fairly valueless asset (a second-round pick) that accounts for those attributes in Pritchard.
     
  14. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    Yes, I've pointed this out twice. No one wants to hear it.

    Blair likely will get garbage minutes behind Duncan and McDyess.
     
  15. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    Yes, I've pointed this out twice. No one wants to hear it.

    Blair likely will get garbage minutes behind Duncan, Bonner, and McDyess.
     
  16. Ed O

    Ed O Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    Players often improve at defense, but they rarely get WORSE at rebounding.

    I don't think that it's at all a given that Blair cannot improve at defense through positioning and conditioning, and actually find that assertion pretty laughable.

    Ed O.
     
  17. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    Since you pointed it out twice, I checked it out.

    Blair and Landry were in the game at the same time for 2:20 of the first quarter. Landry: 1/1, 1Reb. Blair: 0/1, 3Reb.
    From 7:55 to halftime: 2/5FG, 1/2FT, 3Reb Blair: 1/3 4/5FT, 4Reb
    From 2:30 to end of 3rd quarter: Landry: 2/2FG, 0Reb Blair 2/3 FG, 3 Reb
    They didn't play in the 4th.

    Landry 5/9, 1/2FT (fouled by Ginobili) for 11 pts, 4 Reb against Blair. Blair 3/7FG, 4/5FT for 10pts, 10 reb against Landry.

    Doesn't seem like he got "abused", though it did (looking at the box score) look like Mahinmi was hurting a bit trying to stop him.
     
  18. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    Really? Give some examples, Ed. How often, statistically, do undersized and slow players get better at defense.
     
  19. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    This post is from the "Martell Webster looked dominant against the Kings" book.
     
  20. VanillaGorilla

    VanillaGorilla Well-Known Member

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    Blair's lateral quickness is what's laughable. Considering his lack of knee ligaments, I don't really see that improving.
     

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