...I guess you're both in the camp that Tom Brady is NOT the best QB ever (especially at home on prime time)?
11/1 Result - NFL lost $1200 bet on teaser; St Louis easily beat San Fran but Atlanta had 4 turnovers and while still gave me a chance in OT came up short. That was a good bet that'll win most the time. Lost $1100 when Seattle won but didn't cover spread. That was a bad bet. Total NFL losses of $2300. 11/1 Result - NBA won $1000 from Atlanta beating Charlotte, it was close. Won $1000 from Dallas beating Lakers by more than 2. Dallas scored first 15 points. Lost $100 parlay. Net wins of $1900 on $2300 of bets. Thread total results; loss of $75 11/2 Bet - Blazers +190 at Timberwolves. While I might give Minny an advantage it should be closer to even; maybe +120. The spread was 5.5 points but I like the money line here. I'll bet $1000 on the Blazers to win; which would pay me $1900. edit: the line has changed after making my bet so Timberwolves are now -180. I could bet $1800 on them so I'd either net a profit of $100 with a Blazers win (win $1900 from first bet lose $1800 on 2nd bet) or break even at $0 with a Twolves win (lose $1000 from first bet win $1000 from second bet). Think I'll hold off for now but if line changes a tiny bit more I may lock that up. 11/2 Bet - Bucks EV at Nets. Both teams are 0-3. I think that Nets squad could be one of the worst in the conference while the Bucks are a borderline playoff team. The spread was +1 for the Bucks but I'll go with the money line paying even. $1000 bet to win $1000. 11/8 NFL Bet Atlanta -4 at San Fran. I'm a 9ers fan and Kaepernick is horrific right now. The rest of the roster has issues too. The defense is okay which could cost me if Atlanta only wins by a FG. But I love the chances on this line. Any decent NFL team should have a much bigger spread against my 9ers. Would rather do a teaser with this game but don't see another game to pair with it. So I'll just bet it straight. Bet $1100 to win $1000.
Wait... are you actually betting this money or just showing us numbers and then saying w/l based on bet amounts?
Today I've got the over (204) on the Memphis/GS game. I also took Houston straight up against OKC. OKC is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and Houston has been a mess so far, I think tonight they finally pull together and get the win as a home dog. Still undecided on Monday Night Football..
...Luck having "cracked ribs" is a little iffy, not sure if they have enough weapons to out match that Panthers D -- I loath Cam Newton though so I will never put any real money on him!
Does it matter? These are actual bets I make. Or maybe I don't want to say if I do and its all hypothetical. But these are all actual win/loss amounts available to bet when I make the decision. I thought it would be fun to track and explain my rational and get others insights. If you can predict 55% of events you bet on, or 11 of 20, over enough time, and with proper bankroll management, you can win millions. If you can only predict half the events or 10 of 20 bets eventually you'll always go broke. That's because the house pays $10 for every $11 you bet. That $1 difference is their "vig" and how they make their entire profit. So the difference between making money and losing is making that one extra prediction right out of 20. I've made money betting on sports but never really tracked it. What teams, sports, events do I have an information advantage over Vegas and the masses of NBA bettors? I'd certainly say the Blazers; and at times some other NBA teams. Maybe a few rare football games. I'll post some of my ideas in this thread and others are free to as well, I'll try to explain more of my thought processes. We'll just have to see what happens.
Great post! I've always been intruiged at the idea of betting on sports professionally. I quit drinking about a month ago and I'm starting to take it a little more seriously. So far I've more than doubled my initial investment, (although admittedly not with proper bankroll management), but now that I've got that cushion I'm gonna dial the bets back a little and bet within my roll. NBA is my best sport by far, so hopefully this will be a profitable season for all of us! Let's keep this thread going!
11/2 bet -170 moneyline on TWolves. Since the line dropped so much from my initial bet I decided to effectively cash out half the original Blazer bet. Placed $850 bet on TWolves to win $500. I had earlier bet $1000 on the Blazers to win $1900. So if the Blazers win I make $1050 (1900-850). If the TWolves win I lose $500 (500-1000). This effectively changed my odds to +210 on Blazers. The other way I could've played this is bet $1700 on the TWolves moneyline and then I'd either make $200 with a Blazers win or with a TWolves win net to a $0 profit, $0 loss. Or bet $1826 on Twolves and get ~$74 profit regardless of winner. Or finally just keep my full original bet and be glad the moving line confirmed my initial belief the Blazers shouldn't have been such a large underdog.
...I was going to say, the T-wolves are playing for Flip Saunders tribute night so that was a good hedge to minimize your loss!
11/2 results won $1000 from Bucks victory and $1900 from Blazers victory; lost $850 from Twolves defeat for net daily win of $2050 Thread total results; profit of $1975 Don't like any of tomorrows games so I'll wait and take a look at 11/4 lines when they come out. For college football I was shocked to see #13 Utah a +1.5 underdog at UW. Utah is 7-1 and Washington is 4-4. Must be something I'm missing. I don't know enough about that game to bet yet but that line just really shocked me.
11/7 College Football bet 3 team parlay Utah +1.5 @ Washington Oregon -4 at home over Cal ASU +2.5 @WSU Bet $200 to win $1200
Why are you combining your NFL, NBA and college football results? Seems like it would be more instructive to track them separately.
Yeah that would be interesting I'll separate it here eventually. Bet money line +126 on Denver @ Lakers tonight $500 bet to win $630. Think Denver should be a push or one point favorite. Both teams really suck so this might be rough to watch.
NBA results -$500 10/30 BRK +14.0 @ SAS to win $476 -$500 10/30 MIA +210 @ CLE to win $1050 +$825 10/30 MIN +165 @ DEN risk $500 -$500 10/30 PDX +165 @ PHX to win $825 +$1000 10/31 GS -4.5 @ NOP risk $1100 +$1000 11/1 ATL -1.0 @ CHA risk $1100 +$1000 11/1 DAL -2.5 @ LAL risk $1100 -$100 11/1 7way parlay +$1900 11/2 PDX +190 @ MIN risk $1000 -$850 11/2 MIN -170 vs PDX to win $500 (hedge) +$1000 11/2 MIL +EV @ BRK risk $1000 +$630 11/3 DEN +126 @ LAL risk $500 -$500 11/4 BOS -2.0 @ IND risk $550 -$350 11/4 3way parlay BRK +325 @ATL & LAC +285 @GSW & u217.5 LAC@GSW win $10,583 -$500 11/4 LAC +280 @GS bet $500 to win $1400 NBA Total +$3555 NFL -$1200 11/1 Teaser ATL -1 vs TB & STL -2 vs SF to win $1000 -$1100 11/1 SEA -4.5 @ DAL to win $1000 ? 11/8 ATL -4.0 @ SF risk $1100 to win $1000 NFL Total -$2300 CFB ? 11/7 3way-Parlay Utah +1.5 @UW & UO -4.0 vs CAL & ASU +2.5 @WSU risk $200 to win $1200 Thread Total +$1255
Had some better than average results so far in the NBA Thought I'd take a flyer on a 3 way parlay tomorrow. Atlanta is a big favorite at home over Brooklyn but played a back to back last night. Nets were resting in Atlanta. Thats rare for the home team. I like the Nets chances as such a big underdog. Clippers are a big dog too; +285 at Golden State. I figure if the Clippers win it'll likely be scoring less than 218 combined so put all three wagers into a parlay. So if Brooklyn wins, the Clippers win and the combined Clipper GS score is under 218 I win 30-1 odds. I figured thats not such an unrealistic outcome it could happen one out of 15 times. So on my $350 bet I'd win over $10k. Unlikely I hit this bet but its a hell of a payoff if I do.
Bet BOS -2.0 @ IND risk $550 to win $500 Boston is in the same beneficial situation as Brooklyn arriving a day earlier with a day of rest over the home team. Plus their just flat better than Indy. Other game I'm considering for today; SAC -10.0 @PHX SAC+435 @PHX money line Those odds are tempting. Sacramento played last night which is a real concern; I just believe these teams are much more even than that spread.
