rasho is quality, evans and jack we agree on, belinelli is quality in my opinion and wright is a defensive pest at the very least
Yeah, I had a brain cramp on Rasho, otherwise I would've given you credit for him as a quality backup big. Sorry if you addressed this above, but do you see DeRozan as the starting 2? Ed O.
I suppose it all depends on how you define "quality". By my definition, they don't even have quality starters (as in above average players) at all the starting positions. If we just look at PER from last season (which I know is flawed, but it favors offense over defense, just like Bryan Colangelo, so it's probably good enough for this purpose), the Raptors only have quality starters at 2 of the 5 positions, and quality back-ups at none. The average NBA player has a PER of 15.0. PG: Quality starter, below average back-up Starter: Calderon, PER = 18.7, quality starter, well above average offensively, poor defender. Back-up: Jack, PER = 13.1, good guy, below average player. SG: Your weakest position, far below average starter, below average/unproven back-ups Starter: Belinelli, PER = 11.8, significantly below average player. not a quality starter. Back-up: Jack (see above) or DeRozan, unproven rookie, highly unlikely to have a PER => 15.0. SF:Average starter, unproven back-up. Starter: Hedo, PER = 14.8, suprisingly low PER for an offensive minded player. Back-up: Derozan (see above) PF: All-star starter, well below average back-up. Starter: Bosh, PER = 22.7, far above average, your best player and definitely a quality starter. Back-up: Evans, PER = 10.4, excellent rebounder, but a horrible offensive player. Center: Below average starter (due to poor rebounding and weak defense), decent back-up. Starter: Bargnani, PER = 14.6, above average offensively, but far, far below average on defense and the boards, not a quality starting center IMHO. Back-up: Rasho, PER = 14.1. used to be an above average player, but has slipped a bit with age, still a decent back-up. Just looking at your top 10, I see only two players who had above average PERs last season. Given that PER favors players who excel at offense over those who excel at defense, I find this very surprising for a team loaded with players who are much better offenseively than they are on defense. Perhaps it's not fair to only consider players with a PER above 15.0 (by definition, the league average) as quality players. And, admittedly, you have a couple more starters (Hedo and Bargnani) that are only slightly below average and could both post PERs above 15.0 this coming season. It's also not very realistic to think your top 10 players will all be above average. Ideally, your starters would all be average or above and your back-ups slightly below average to average (13.5 - 15.0 PER). It's also nice to have a player coming off the bench that can ignite your offense. Such an offensive sparkplug would likely have a PER above 15.0. If we go by that criteria, Toronto has two above average starters (including one all-star), two slightly below average starters, one horrible starter, and one decent back-up. Just for grins, let's see how our Blazers stack up. PG: Solid rotation with one well above average starter and one slightly below average back-up Starter: Miller, PER = 18.6, well above average starter. Back-up: Blake, PER = 14.5, slightly below average player, will make a good back-up. SG: Our strongest position, all-star starter, above average back-up Starter: Roy, PER = 24.0, all-star, statistically, one of the top 10 players in the league last season. Back-up: Rudy, PER = 15.4, above average player as a rookie, offensive spark off the bench. SF: Below average starter (as a rookie, should improve this year), below average back-up coming off an injury. Starter: Batum, PER = 12.9, last year's surprise starter, undeveloped offensive game lead to low PER as a rookie. Back-up: Webster, PER = 12.0 (2007-08 - injured last season), a bit of a wild card, former starter coming off a serious foot injury. Outlaw will also see minutes at the 3, so this position isn't as weak as it appears. PF: Well above average starter, above average back-up. Starter: Aldridge, PER = 19.1, far above average, not quite an all-star yet, but getting closer every year. Back-up: Outlaw, PER = 15.1, above average back-up who provides offensive spark off the bench. Center: One of the best center rotations in the league, outstanding rebounding and defense, low, but efficient scoring Starter: Przybilla, PER = 15.4, above average center who led the league in TRB%, is a great defender and shot 0.625 from the field. Back-up: Oden, PER = 18.1, foul and injury plagued rookie season, but was still extremely productive when on the court, likely starter this season. So, 7 of the Blazers top 10 had PERs above 15.0 last season, including three (one all-star and one near all-star) that were well above average (18.6 - 24.0). They also had two players coming off the bench (Outlaw and Fernandez) that provide potent offense with PERs above 15.0. This year, with Przybilla and Blake likely moving to back-up roles, they should have 4 very solid (PER = 14.5 - 15.4) back-ups. 3 of their top 10 players (Oden, Rudy and Batum) were rookies last season and will likely see significant improvement in their second seasons. So, Portland has four quality starters (including one all-star) and four quality back-ups. A much deeper roster than Toronto. BNM
I think they are a Homeless Man's Suns team. Since I don't watch them much, is Bosh really all that comparable to Amare? For all his faults, Amare was absolutely dominate in the open floor. I have no idea if Bosh has the same skill set. I read a couple of Raptor blogs that claimed Calderon was risk adverse, implying he didn't really want to push the ball much. Once again, perhaps someone who watches the team can comment. The biggest difference between JJ on the Suns and Hedo on the Raptors is athleticism. Namely, JJ was a superior athlete and Hedo isn't. That and Hedo is old.
is it me or are we too preoccupied with stats? does per measure willingness to sacrifice your body, willingness to play through pain or ones contribution to locker room chemistry? NO. as an example- oden grades well in PER but every time i see him- he looks disinterested and utterly confused. i guess PER doesnt measure intellect either
No, because intangibles are in the eye of the beholder. PER also doesn't measure how attractive you find the player. It measure their actual effect on the court. If it made him worse at scoring, rebounding, passing or not turning the ball over, it would be measured. It doesn't measure "how he looks to you whenever you see him." I love the argument that goes: "Fuck stats. Do they measure <stream of random things>? No? Well, then clearly all the players I like or that are on my team are underrated. Case closed." Bosh ranks well by PER. All-Star level. But every time I see him, he seems passionless, disinterested and like he'd rather be wind-surfing. Clearly a scrub. CLEARLY. Guess PER doesn't measure "rather be wind-surfing."
Simple marketing tactic - if you can't win, at least be exciting! As BNM points out, their best case scenario is that they over-achieve in the regular season and keep the fans coming to the games.
my point is that stats dont tell the entire tale. and u cant compare a 5 time all star to a dude who just completed an unimpressive rookie season.
No, but it tells a lot of it. Trying to factor in things that no one really has any idea how to factor in simply adds randomness, not information. We can say that such appraisals are not 100% certain, but they do tell us that most of Toronto's players aren't likely to be significantly better than average. True that you can't compare someone who's only had an abbreviated rookie season (if you mean Oden) to someone has been successful for a while, due to differences in minutes and sample sizes. Whether that rookie season was "unimpressive" sort of begs the question. If you throw out PER as misleading because it says that someone you thought was unimpressive was actually quite good, then all you're really saying is, "PER doesn't validate my opinion so it must be wrong."
exactly. im not proposing we throw out per but i think it only has value when u view it in context of what we know about a player.
Oh they'll keep coming regardless. Chris Bosh's potential departure has created a sense of urgency in the organization that us fans never could.
Says the guy whose team has a roster full of players with unimpressive stats... Go figure. There's really only one stat that matters - wins. The Blazers, with their disinterested players and high PERs won 54 games. The Raptors, with a roster full of players with low PERs won 33. Gee, maybe there is something to all these stats after all. The superior production of the Blazers players shows up directly in the scores of their games where they had a +5.3 per game point differential. The Raptors, with a roster full of below average producers had a point differential of -2.9. The roster full of players who consistently produced at a better than average rate won significantly more games than they lost. The roster full of below average producers lost significantly more game than they won. No surprises there. You can choose to ignore the stats if you want, but it won't change the results. As I stated in my original post, PER is not a perfect stat and it doesn't tell the whole story. It is one of many stats that attempts to summarize a player's production in a single number. It tends to favor offense (more easily measured) over defense, and you also have to consider sample size - all of the players I posted PERs for played significant minutes in 2008-09, other than Webster (so I used his 2007-08 PER). Although it's not a perfect stat, PER is useful for these types of discussions as long as you understand its limitations. How you think Oden looks has ZERO impact on his production. Oden, as a rookie, fighting injuries and constant foul trouble, was among the league leaders in TRB%. To be an outstanding rebounder requires hustle and desire. There are no disinterested and confused elite rebounders. Oden's TRB% was exactly twice Bargnani's (20.0 vs. 10.0). I'll take Oden's disinterested and confused appearance over Bargnani's poor production any day. As far as intellect goes, who would you rather have on your team, LeBron James or Albert Einstein? If it's a basketball team, I think I'd go with LeBron over Albert's superior intellect. Yes, some players are smarter than others, but that also shows up in the stats. Dumb players make dumb decisions and that shows up as turn overs and missed shots. BNM
