OT: The more things change ... (Sergio in Sacto)

You need to re-read MIXUM's post ... look for the sneering sarcasm this time.

 

Man, if we could get Kevin Martin I would be psyched. They need a big? Think they would accept Przybilla? I would gladly send them one of our small forwards and Joel AND, get this, Steve Blake, for Kevin Martin

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yfs7n3h

We end up with

Miller/Bayless/Mills
Roy/Rudy
Martin/Batum/Nocioni
LMA/Pendergraph/Nocioni
Howard/Oden

 

that may be true of beno udrih, but it's not true of kevin martin.

 

so he'd get some minutes right now because everyone else was hurt and then go back to the bench when they got relatively healthy. same thing happened with the kings. now that they got healthy, he's back to the bench.

 

And they end up with a severely injured center and a 4th PG. They're not going to send us their best player for our rejects. Even if Joel was healthy, I doubt if they'd do it. With him out for the season, not a chance.

Also, where would we play Martin? He plays the same position as Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez and Jerryd Bayless (half the time). We already have a logjam and shortage of minutes for our guards. Adding Martin just makes that worse.

BNM

 

He's 6'7... you don't think he could play small forward? I know he's pretty thin, but it's a far cry from Steve Blake or even Rudy.

I was just looking at Blake and Outlaw removing Nocioni's contract, and then Webster/Przybilla playing in their rotation.

 

Guess who leads the Kings in +/-? I'm actually surprised that Martin isn't their worst minus player. But he is worst per minute of all of their rotation players.

 

unadjusted plus-minus is a lot 'noisier' than adjusted plus-minus, and even adjusted needs more of a sample size than what Sergio has been able to produce to be meaningful.

 

I don't think he could play small forward for this team Nate demands defense from that position and Martin might be the worst defensive wing in the league.

 

I dunno, Udrih seems to be finally living up to his deal. 50% from the floor, 40% from three, 85% from the stripe, a decent number of assists at 4 playing off of Evans and a low turnover rate ... Sergio just isn't better than the guys in front of him.

I will say that doesn't make Sergio terrible; I've been very impressed with his ability to finally play efficiently, and his shooting is even no longer a total embarrassment ... defense on the other hand? meh.

 

I did not say it would happen, I said I would love to see him on a team like that.

 

Maybe for 5 minutes a game with a small line-up, but no more than that. If we had Roy and Martin one of them would have to start and play most of their minutes out of position. We already know from Nate's 3-guard experiment that that doesn't work well for Roy. His scoring was down, his shooting percentages were way down and he was stuck guarding (and being guarded by) bigger, stronger, longer players. And Roy is stronger physically than Martin.

The NBA is loaded with "big" small forwards - guys who either have great length (Durant, Anthony, Gay, etc.), are very strong (Artest, Maggette, Gerald Wallace, etc.) or guys who have a combination of size and strength (Anthony, Lebron). A skinny 6'7" shooting guard would get killed on a nightly basis by these guys.

BNM

 

For the one millionth time, +/- is a TEAM stat, not an individual stat. It's is HIGHLY influenced by the other nine players on the court. Sacramento is a bad team. They get outscored in the majority of their games. So, it's only logical that a guy who starts and plays 38 minutes will have a worse +/- than a guy who occasionally plays 6 - 7 minutes of garbage time.

In either case, the sample size is ridiculously small for both players. It's small for Martin because he's only played in 9 games and it's small for Sergio because he racks up a lot of DNPs.

BNM

 

You and other Sergio-haters have maintained this confused stance for 3 years now, but only in the selective cases of Sergio and Blake.

If Bayless or now Miller have a game where they are + (admittedly a rarity) you go hog-wild over the stat.

It's just as stupid as saying LeBron's scoring ability is just "noise".

 

I know you're not addressing me, but I agree +/- is the most misunderstood, misused stat I know of. I absolutely HATE this stat and the way people who should know better constantly misuse it. Anyone who uses it as a single player, single game stat just doesn't understand what it means, or does so intentionally to prop up or put down a specific player.

It can be used for spotting long terms trends, but you really need a LOT of data for even that usage. As it is calculated, an individual player only contributes 1/10 of his own +/- score. There are nine other players on the court, and those nine other players are constantly changing over the course of a game and over the course of a season. There are just too many variables for this stat to be meaningful in a small sample size.

I know you never let facts get in the way of your hatred, but for the record, Andre Miller has been on the positive side of the +/- stat four games in a row to the tune of +44 - the highest on the team over that stretch. But, as we already agreed the sample size is too small to be meaningful - other than to be used by haters to justify their hatred of a certain player.

BNM

 

For the millionth time, basketball is a TEAM game, not an individual game. This stat, given a large sample size - shows fit and proper use by the coaches, ignoring it is silly. The truth is, however, that in Sergio's case (and Martin's) - there isn't enough data, he (Sergio) just does not play enough, and in Martin's case - he did not this year.

But, to ignore it - would be stupid. We have seen from Durant's case - that for 2 years, his +/- was very bad, and the team's performance, was also bad. This year, on the other hand, his +/- is much much better - and the Thunder look like a real team out there.

Of course, it is easier to see it in Durant's case because he is the main-cog in the system, and the Thunder go as far as he goes - but the evidence is there. The Cavs are a lot better when side-show Bob plays, and he is not a main-cog in the machine - but his +/- is just fantastic. There is real value to this data, and ignoring it is just sticking your head in the sand and hoping it will go away. It will not, an should not.

 

Um yea I am sure their talent levels are near the same.......

 

I don't give a shit about Bayless' or Miller's plus-minus for half a season, and I think it is widely misused and misunderstood statistic ... despite the fact that both players have had one of the better adjusted plus-minus in the past month and a half or so -- but that's beside the point.

As for hating Sergio, I don't hide the fact that I was happy to see him go, but that doesn't mean I hate the guy; in a more open court system he's finally shown that he can at least be marginally effective finally at least on offense, but his defense man-to-man defense is still shoddy as ever.

Anyways, it doesn't matter, he's two steps from heading back to the ACB.

 

Umm... if you read the rest of my post (the part you didn't quote) you'd see I said the EXACT SAME THING.

I was referring specifically to the misuse of the +/- stat comparing Martin to Sergio by the poster I quoted. As you agree, the sample size is WAY to small to be meaningful - and that was my beef with the poster I quoted. I have the same beef with people who use +/- as a single player, single game stat - totally meaningless and constantly misused.

BNM

 

Get a clue people, Sergio ranks 18th among Western guards for overall efficiency per 48min.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/playe...alified=N&yearsExp=-1&sortOrder=7&splitDD=All Teams

Roy ranks 7th, and all other Blazers pale in comparison.

Miller is 20th, Bayless 33rd, Rudy 54th, Blake 69th.

ALL STATS ARE PER 48 MINUTES:

Defense? Sergio is the better defender, eclipsing ALL of Portland's guards in blocks:

http://www.nba.com/statistics/playe...alified=N&yearsExp=-1&sortOrder=3&splitDD=All Teams

Blowing away all Portland guards except Rudy in steals:

http://www.nba.com/statistics/playe...alified=N&yearsExp=-1&sortOrder=3&splitDD=All Teams

Better rebounder than Bayless and Blake:

http://www.nba.com/statistics/playe...sortOrder=7&splitDD=All Teams&pager.offset=50

He's also 7th in assists (Miller is 19th, Brandon 36th, Bayless 38th, Blake 39th, Rudy 52nd):

http://www.nba.com/statistics/playe...alified=N&yearsExp=-1&sortOrder=5&splitDD=All Teams

Assists to Turnover ratio comparison (Blake 12th, Miller 26th, Sergio 28th, Brandon 29th, Bayless 32nd, Rudy 69th):

http://www.nba.com/statistics/playe...alified=N&yearsExp=-1&sortOrder=6&splitDD=All Teams

Better FG% than Blake, Bayless or Rudy:

http://www.nba.com/statistics/playe...cope=GAME&qualified=N&yearsExp=-1&splitDD=All Teams

Better 3pt% than Brandon, Bayless and Miller:

http://www.nba.com/statistics/playe...cope=GAME&qualified=N&yearsExp=-1&splitDD=All Teams