OT: Thunder are going to make the playoffs

They're only 2 games behind the 8th spot in the loss column. The question is will they compete with us for the division. Thoughts?

 

Too early to tell unfortunately. Durant had a Jones Fracture.
That bone is thin and can be re-accruing. I hope it doesn't because I never wish injury on a player.
More time needed to see if Durant doesn't fracture it again.

 

It will be interesting to watch OKC climb upward in Hollinger's playoff odds as they continue to rack up wins. After their two most recent wins, they jumped from 0.9% to 5.4%. Although Hollinger's simulations weigh recent performance they do not comprehend that OKC's slow start was due to injuries to their two best players. I think most informed humans would put OKC's chances of making the playoffs, barring further significant injuries, at >90%. It will be interesting to see how long it takes the computer model to catch up to the human perception.

On the bright side, as their playoff chances go up, their odds of winning the lottery (currently 2.3%) go down.

BNM

 

I posted this in another thread:

I really feel like if we play over .700 ball they would have to play record ball to catch us. But also consider if we win the season series that gets even harder for them to do.

 

They are going to be a hellish matchup for whoever has to go against them in the first round.

 

Maybe there is a little but of hope that they expend so much energy getting there that they run out of gas in the playoffs. Maybe not but I wonder.

 

Well I hope they aren't the 8th seed because we will be first!

 

Any team with Kevin Durant is going to be a challenge in the playoffs, no matter what the round. However, their lack of depth was exposed in last year's playoffs when 3 of their starters combined to average less than 15ppg. During the San Antonio series they were forced to juggle their starting line up to try to get more scoring, and that further weakened their bench scoring. When Ibaka was out, they had multiple games where they had more than one starter go scoreless and 3 starters combine for less than 10 points. Posters here constantly whined about our bench being incapable of scoring 25 ppg, but OKC had 60% of their starting line up incapable of contributing 15 ppg. Of course, that was when Ibaka was out, but even with Ibaka back, they had two starters (Perkins and Sefolosha) incapable of scoring 5ppg in the playoffs.

Sefolosha is gone and Steven Adams is starting in place of Perkins, but Adams at 7.3ppg isn't exactly an offensive machine. When Durant and Westbrook were out, they were forced to start guys like Andre Roberson (3.9 ppg) and Lance Thomas (5.6 ppg), two more offensively challenged players, which is why they had such a horrible record leading up to the return of their two star players. They signed Anthony Morrow to give them more bench scoring, and Morrow, Perry Jones and Jeremy Lamb are all averaging over 10 ppg, but they are also all averaging over 25 mpg. Their combined minutes and scoring will go down significantly now that Durant and Westbrook are back.

Durant and Westbrook are known factors, it''s the rest of that roster that will determine how deep they go in the playoffs. If teams are allowed to practically ignore the 2 or 3 of the other players on the court and focus all their defensive attention on Durant and Westbrook, they will struggle to score. Reggie Jackson is their third best scorer, but he plays the same position as Westbrook. They do play them both together at times, and were forced to start Jackson in the SAS series to get somebody else on the court that was a legitimate scoring threat, but Jackson's effectiveness goes down when he's forced to "share" the ball with Westbrook. I think OKC's playoff success will really come down to how much guys like Morrow, Jones and Lamb produce during the playoffs. Sure, Durant and Westbrook will do what they do and will rack up tons of points, but unless some of their other players step up, their lack of depth could again hurt them in the post season.

They have two all stars/superstars, and like Houston their stars are considered better than ours, but we have a much better, more balanced starting 5 and with the additions of Kaman and Blake, a better bench, too. I think a POR vs. OKC series would be very similar to POR vs. HOU last year, tightly contested, with most games coming down to the wire, but like against Houston, I think in the end, our better balance would prevail in the end.

BNM

 

If I were the Thunder and round one was against the Blazers... I'd be more worried defensively matching up than I would be worried about offense.
But then again you had some valid points in outside of Durant/Westbrook who will consistently give them points working off the ball.

Honestly if I were OKC I'd want to avoid the Blazers... Too many matchup problems.
Basically any series where Ibaka has to leave the paint on a regular biases severely hurts their defensive strategy.
Meaning they might want to avoid the Mavs also...
I don't think they want Adams on Dirk or Aldridge.

 

If I were OKC and in the playoffs, I'd just relax, knowing the NBA and ESPN have a great narrative they're selling on our behalf, meaning we can't lose in the first round. It's a lock. The fix is already in.

 

Hollinger Playoff Odds for OKC now up to 11.6% and they are only 2.5 games behind PHO for the 8th seed. They are definitely making the playoffs, the only questions is can they move up enough to get HCA. They are currently 8.0 games out of the 4th seed.

BNM

 

They'll be top 8 by Christmas at the latest. Breaking into to 7 will be tough though. I think top 7 West teams are all title contenders.

 

There will be plenty of tanking from top seeds to avoid them

 

Why? It's not like the 7th seed would be a cakewalk.

 

Because OKC should be a much higher team.

 

I would love that too! That would be such a terrible first round match up for the Warriors!

 

Perfect scenario (other then OKC not making the playoffs period) is for OKC and GS to play each other in the first round. Would be must-see TV as well.

 

Sorry Mags, but I have to strongly disagree. I hope you intended that to be green font, or perhaps you were channeling your inner Kingspeed.

GSW is a horrible, horrible, HORRIBLE match up for OKC. Other than maybe the Spurs (just because they are the Spurs), the Warriors are the worst possible match up for OKC. Other than Durant, the Warriors are as good, to considerably better than the Thunder at all positions, better and more efficient offensively, better defensively, they are deeper and better coached.

The one, and only, advantage the Thunder have is Durant, and GSW is better equipped to defend him than any other team in the league. They have FOUR very good defenders they can throw at him. Harrison Barnes will start on Durant and Iggy will be Barnes primary back-up. If that's not enough, although Klay Thompson is listed as a SG, he's 6'7" and a very good perimeter defender. Finally, if GSW wants to go big and get physical with Durant, they can throw Draymond Green at him (with David Lee at the 4). Other than Durant being Durant, one problem most teams have is their primary defender gets worn down, or in foul trouble chasing Durant around for 4 quarters. Not a problem for GSW. If one guy gets gassed, or in foul trouble, they have three more guys who can spell him. They can throw fresh legs at him all night long.

Westbrook is OKCs second best player, but he would also be the second best PG in this series, and the margin is actually pretty big. Curry is a better, much more efficient scorer and a better distributor. Westbrook is an inefficient scorer who thinks he's way better than he actually is. As currently constructed, it is VERY likely GSW would sweep OKC. The only way OKC even wins one game is if Durant just totally goes off and is in a zone where it won't matter who is guarding him. But, thanks to Westbrook, that will only happen, at most, once. Westbrook will not stand idly by while the reigning MVP and 4-time scoring champ steals his Thunder. He will freeze Durant out, just like he always does in the playoffs (last year, Durant was the MVP and scoring champ, but Westbrook actually had more FGA/36 in the playoffs than Durant). So, unless there is a big trade, I see GSW taking out the Thunder in 4, or at most 5 games.

As far as the rest of the roster goes, Andrew Bogut is who Steven Adams wants to be when he grows up. Although he does share Bogut's tendency to get under his opponents' skin, he's not the player Bogut is. Bogut is just better all around, better scorer, better defender, much better rebounder and much better passer. Serge Ibaka is a great weak side shot blocker, but is actually a weak man-to-man defender. He simply cannot guard many power forwards. Aldridge absolutely kills him, which is why Scott Brooks often puts Perkins or Adams on Aldridge. Draymond Green is not a shot blocker like Ibaka, but a much better man-to-man defender. Plus, the Warriors also have David Lee who is fully capable of abusing Ibaka in the post. At SG. Klay Thompson is >>>>>>> than Dion Waiters or anyone else OKC cares to trot out at the 2-guard position. Thompson is a true 2-way player. OKC has a mix of 1-way specialists at this position, none of who are near the player Thompson is.

As mentioned GSW has a much better bench, with Speights, Lee and Iggy and Steve Kerr may be a rookie coach, but he may be the single biggest reason why GSW is so much better this year than last. Scott Brooks just kind of rolls the balls out there hoping Westbrook will play nice and share with Durant.

If OKC manages to get Brook Lopez, the series would be less lopsided, more likely to go 5, possibly 6 games, but adding a legitimate low post scoring threat would mostly just reduce GSW's MOV. Even with Lopez, the Warriors big man rotation of Bogut, Green, Speights and Lee is still better than OKC's rotation of Lopez, Ibaka, Adams and Collison.

Ultimately, GSW is just a much better, deeper, more balanced team than OKC. GSW is 2nd in the league in 3FG% with multiple deep threats (Curry, 3FG% = .399, Klay 3FG% = .446, Barnes, 3FG% = .440). And, that's another huge advantage GSW has over OKC. None of OKC's guards are good 3-point shooters. In fact, they suck. OKC is 26th in the league in 3FG%. Durant and Ibaka are OKC's only 3-point threats. You don't need, or even want, to guard anyone else on their roster out to the 3-point line. In fact, you want to back off Westbrook (.250 3FG%), Waiters (.267 3FG%) and Reggie Jackson (.288 3FG%) and dare them to jack up threes, and thankfully those three chuckers will oblige.

BNM