Pac-10 Rankings (Or an Experiment With a Computer Ratings System)

I've been using this fun little program for years to rank football teams. I've tweaked the formula over time, and now that it's mid-season, I can post the first ranking of the year. First the Pac-10 (with a lot of (3-3) teams), since this is an Oregon forum:

Conf Rank. School (Rating) W-L [Conf] (Nat'l Rank)
1. Oregon (80.08) 6-0 [3-0] (2)
2. Stanford (76.24) 5-1 [2-1] (11)
3. Arizona (70.28) 5-1 [2-1] (17)
4. Southern Cal (68.37) 5-2 [2-2] (20)
5. California (62.24) 3-3 [1-2] (35)
6. Oregon State (59.77) 3-3 [2-1] (38)
7. Arizona State (58.93) 3-3 [1-2] (42)
8. UCLA (56.20) 3-3 [1-2] (59)
9. Washington (56.19) 3-3 [2-1] (60)
10. Washington State (35.48) 1-6 [0-4] (107)

Newcomers:
Utah (76.06) 6-0 [3-0] (12)
Colorado (52.40) 3-3 [0-2] (70)

My Top 25, based on numbers and not humans. My rankings take Margin of Victory into account, so I was as surprised to have Oklahoma jump up to the top of my rankings this week as other people were in the BCS. Last week (in my pre-release rankings) it was LSU, another overrated team in my opinion. The only reason Oregon isn't number one is because of their low schedule strength up until now. Boise State came out really low this early (I think they should be rated higher), and I think they'll actually go up as the season improves. With the Oklahoma/Missouri game this week, it's likely that the winner will end up in first, and the Auburn/LSU winner in second. Anyway:

Rank. School (Rating) W-L
1. Oklahoma (81.55) 6-0
2. Oregon (80.08) 6-0
3. LSU (80.06) 7-0
4. Missouri (79.18) 6-0
5. TCU (79.13) 7-0
6. Auburn (78.89) 7-0
7. Oklahoma State (78.71) 6-0
8. Michigan State (77.34) 7-0
9. Boise State (77.30) 6-0
10. Alabama (76.49) 6-1
11. Stanford (76.24) 5-1
12. Utah (76.06) 6-0
13. Nebraska (72.88) 5-1
14. Ohio State (72.82) 6-1
15. Florida State (72.23) 6-1
16. Iowa (72.06) 5-1
17. Arizona (70.28) 5-1
18. Wisconsin (69.67) 6-1
19. Kansas State (69.59) 5-1
20. Southern Cal (68.37) 5-2
21. North Carolina (68.31) 4-2
22. Nevada (68.25) 6-1
23. West Virginia (68.11) 5-1
24. Virginia Tech (67.34) 5-2
25. South Carolina (67.21) 4-2

My Conference Ranking is pretty simple. The ACC and Big East are having a terrible year. What I found surprising was the WAC's rating over the typically better Mountain West. When I took a closer look, I saw that the Mountain West is actually being dragged down heavily by their bottom five (four of them in the bottom 15. The WAC, only two).

Average Ranking of Conference Teams:
1. SEC (37.92)
2. Big XII (38.83)
3. Pac-10 (39.10)
4. Big Ten (40.73)
5. ACC (50.50)
6. Big East (57.00)
7. WAC (69.67)
8. Mountain West (71.11)
9. Conference USA (78.42)
10. MAC (93.23)
11. Sun Belt (95.89)

I'm going to post a new poll every week to see how this thing progresses. Thoughts?

 

Very interesting.

 

What's your common foruma theme? Do you use margin of victory at all? Or simply attempt to rank based on record and strength of schedule?

 

I was thinking of putting that together. I can do that for you. Just a moment...

 

I use margin of victory, which is the only reason why Oregon is ranked so high right now. I use strength of schedule and records just as heavily. I like the difference in these polls between Massey's BCS "marginless" poll and his "real" poll:

BCS - Oregon #8
Real - Oregon #1

 

All right, sorry, can't keep my eyes off the game. A little bit of shuffling here:

Conference By Average Rating:
1. Big XII (63.65)
2. SEC (63.55)
3. Pac-10 (62.38)
4. Big Ten (61.66)
5. ACC (57.51)
6. Big East (56.32)
7. WAC (49.74)
8. Mountain West (48.11)
9. Conference USA (46.32)
10. Sun Belt (39.12)
11. MAC (38.88)

 

Unfortunately no. WSU is dragging us down. The worst teams from the six BCS conferences:

107. Washington State (35.48) Pac-10
104. Minnesota (37.77) Big Ten
102. Duke (38.59) ACC
99. Kansas (39.34) Big XII
80. Tennessee (47.05) SEC (Also dragging Oregon down. Probably shouldn't have crushed them so badly. Vanderbilt is just barely ahead of them, while usually-bad Kentucky and Mississippi State are actually playing well.)
74. South Florida (50.24) Big East (The worst conference of the Big Six, but the best parity... or rather a parity of serious mediocrity. Also the smallest conference in all the FBS, so less chances for bad teams.)

 

On a side note, I won't release my "official" rankings for Week 8 until Saturday night, but the Oregon win has the Ducks leap-frogging Oklahoma for first place, at least until the Sooners play Missouri in which case it could revert back to Oklahoma.

 

All right, Week 8, here we go. Pac-10 Rankings. The only change is that Washington jumped UCLA, despite both of them losing:

Code:

[U](Nat'l)   School           (Rate)  W-L [Conf](LWk) Result[/U]
(1)   1.  Oregon           (81.25) 7-0 [4-0] (1)   won vs UCLA 60-13
(12)  2.  Stanford         (73.81) 6-1 [3-1] (2)   won vs Washington State 38-28
(15)  3.  Arizona          (71.69) 6-1 [3-1] (3)   won vs Washington 44-14
(22)  4.  Southern Cal     (67.41) 5-2 [2-2] (4)   bye week
(29)  5.  California       (64.00) 4-3 [2-2] (5)   won vs Arizona State 50-17
(40)  6.  Oregon State     (59.42) 3-3 [2-1] (6)   bye week
(64)  7.  Arizona State    (52.69) 3-4 [1-3] (7)   lost @ California 17-50
(65)  8.  Washington       (52.21) 3-4 [2-2] (9)   lost @ Arizona 14-44
(71)  9.  UCLA             (50.56) 3-4 [1-3] (8)   lost @ Oregon 13-60
(104) 10. Washington State (34.76) 1-7 [0-5] (10)  lost @ Stanford 28-38

[U]Newcomers:[/U]
(7)   N/A Utah             (75.78) 7-0 [3-0] (N/A) won vs Colorado State 59-6
(70)  N/A Colorado         (50.71) 3-4 [0-3] (N/A) lost vs Texas Tech 24-27

Top 25, based on numbers and not humans. I thought the winners of the Oklahoma/Missouri and LSU/Auburn games would come out as the top two, but they didn't:

Code:

[U]Rk. School         (Rate)  W-L (LWk) Result[/U]
1.  Oregon         (81.25) 7-0 (2)   won vs UCLA 60-13
2.  Missouri       (79.00) 7-0 (4)   won vs Oklahoma 36-27
3.  Auburn         (78.91) 8-0 (6)   won vs LSU 24-17
4.  TCU            (77.78) 8-0 (5)   won vs Air Force 38-7
5.  Alabama        (76.40) 7-1 (10)  won @ Tennessee 41-10
6.  Michigan State (76.39) 8-0 (8)   won @ Northwestern 35-27
7.  Utah           (75.78) 7-0 (12)  won vs Colorado State 59-6
8.  Ohio State     (75.72) 7-1 (14)  won vs Purdue 49-0
9.  Boise State    (75.64) 6-0 (9)   bye week
10. Oklahoma       (74.60) 6-1 (1)   lost @ Missouri 27-36
11. LSU            (74.20) 7-1 (3)   lost @ Auburn 17-24
12. Stanford       (73.81) 6-1 (11)  won vs Washington State 38-28
13. Nebraska       (73.27) 6-1 (13)  won @ Oklahoma State 51-41
14. Oklahoma State (71.93) 6-1 (7)   lost vs Nebraska 41-51
15. Arizona        (71.69) 6-1 (17)  won vs Washington 44-14
16. Florida State  (71.17) 6-1 (15)  bye week
17. Wisconsin      (69.44) 7-1 (18)  won @ Iowa 31-30
18. Virginia Tech  (67.97) 6-2 (24)  won vs Duke 44-7
19. Nevada         (67.83) 6-1 (22)  bye week
20. Miami FL       (67.65) 5-2 (NR)  won vs North Carolina 33-10
21. Iowa           (67.45) 5-2 (16)  lost vs Wisconsin 30-31
22. Southern Cal   (67.41) 5-2 (20)  bye week
23. South Carolina (67.35) 5-2 (25)  won @ Vanderbilt 21-7
24. Arkansas       (65.76) 5-2 (NR)  won vs Mississippi 38-24
25. Baylor         (65.59) 6-2 (NR)  won vs Kansas State 47-42

[U]Dropped Out:[/U]
27. Kansas State   (65.04) 5-2 (19)  lost @ Baylor 42-47
33. West Virginia  (62.78) 5-2 (23)  lost vs Syracuse 14-19
34. North Carolina (61.94) 4-3 (21)  lost @ Miami FL 10-33

Conference Rankings. No shuffling here (from the average score of last week, not the average rank), although there is a tie at the top now:

Code:

[U]Rk. Conference      (Avg) (LWk) Teams Ranked[/U]
1T. Big XII        (62.01) (1)  5
1T. SEC            (62.01) (2)  5
3.  Pac-10         (60.78) (3)  4
4.  Big Ten        (60.34) (4)  4
5.  ACC            (56.81) (5)  3
6.  Big East       (55.41) (6)  0
7.  WAC            (50.30) (7)  2
8.  Mountain West  (46.93) (8)  2
9.  Conference USA (45.39) (9)  0
10. Sun Belt       (39.11) (10) 0
11. MAC            (38.21) (11) 0

 

Interesting. Mizzou up there is somewhat interesting. IDK how they would be ahead of Auburn. Any thoughts?

 

They're almost interchangeable right now. Auburn's schedule is better, but Missouri's doing a better job keeping the score lopsided. I wouldn't consider either of them real national title contenders. I think Nebraska will take down Missouri next Saturday and Alabama will finish off Auburn to stop them from winning the SEC. I thought they would both win this week, but because I thought Oklahoma and LSU were also pretenders. They've won their games, so they've earned their spots, but they're both missing something that will get them to a championship in my opinion. I would expect Alabama to climb back into the top two again before it's over.

 

How can a one loss Bama leap frog MSU? And Nick Saban can suck my balls!

 

Bama's only one position behind them in the BCS (well, before today's ranking comes out), and they're going to play LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn (all ranked) before even playing a conference title game if they win out. Michigan State's got Iowa and chump change. Even with no losses, I'm not sure that MSU can withstand Alabama's schedule if Alabama's only one spot behind them and they win out.

 

As far as my rankings, Northwestern's record makes them look much better than they are. Looking at their games, they're really not that good. While they're better than Tennessee, MSU winning by only one score against them actually hurt the Spartans. Alabama also decreased a bit just for playing Tennessee but won by an expected margin so the drop wasn't as significant.

 

But its based on who they played now, not who they will play. Bitch slapping Wisky and De-railing the Denard for Heisman talks need to be taking into consideration, Right? And Ohio State is above the team that beat them?

 

Sorry, got my second post in as you were typing this one out. See above for this week's results.

Despite the head to head win for Wisconsin, Ohio State has performed better overall. I think Wisconsin just got up for a better team and beat them. In a playoff situation, Ohio State would be out of the conversation, but over the course of the season it's just one game. A game that might keep OSU out of the title game, however.

As for MSU, my rankings are set up for quality wins compared to today's ranking, and not for a team's ranking at the time of the game, so Michigan not being ranked isn't as helpful as it could be. The Wisconsin win was a good win, and counts for them. But don't take Bama's position as a leapfrogging. They're both separated by 1/100th of a point so it's practically a tie. But I think they'd have to lose one more time to assure MSU's standing above them.

 

To clarify a bit on the Ohio State/Wisconsin game: A human poll is set up to reward teams for going above and beyond and beating the teams they're not supposed to. They get better position as a reward. Computer ratings are set up to predict the likelihood that one team would beat another, even if the other has earned the win. Sometimes they beat the odds. But the likelihood is still there, even for the rematch should they play again in a conference title. Some people thought last year that Florida and Alabama should have played a rematch of their conference title game for the national title because they were considered the two best teams in the country (they were in my ratings). But they already had their playoff game, and Florida lost. The BCS had enough weight in the human sector to prevent Florida from going ahead of Texas. But when the season was over, I had Florida above Texas in the computers.

 

I see what your saying, but lets say your team is 8-0 and someone says "I think _____ is a better team even if they lost to _____" wouldnt you be questioning there logic?

I'm rooting like hell you guys make the BCS game, I don't want to see y'all in a bowl game.