<u>Pats V. Colts Official Breakdown</u> Pats offensively are like a chameleon. They can adapt to any style of play. Granted early on the passing game struggled with a lack of experience with new weapons at WR. Now with the emergence of Gaffney & Caldwell, former teammates at Florida the passing game is a legit threat. They have yet to perfect the deep ball, but the coaching staff is not afraid to test it on occasion. The running game has never been better in the Belichick era. The addition of Maroney gives the Patriots another dimension. He's capable of taking it to the house from any where on the field. Facing the worst run D in the regular season has him licking his chops for sure. The biggest difference in the run D for Indy has been the return of Bob Sanders. He was also there in the matchup against NE earlier this season. So the Pats know what he's capable of & will use the film from that game to correct the mistakes they made. More than likely you will see them be more aggressive than the previous 2 opponents for Indy. I'm highly confident the Colts can't stop the run without Bob Sanders cheating up to the line, so the gameplan should be fairly easy. Get them to respect the pass by spreading them out & utilizing the screen plays. Getting an early lead will be key in a convincing victory. Taking the crowd out will help negate false start penalties & keep the offense running smoothly. If we do fall behind we can't abandon the run like we did in the previous meeting this season, otherwise Freeney will just come full boar at Brady with every move imaginable. Maroney's homerun threat should give the Pats confidence they don't have to rely soley on Brady. Defensively the Pats have another huge challenge in front of them. Despite Manning's struggles in the playoffs you have to respect their passing game & even though he's a rookie you have to respect Addai. Belichick has done another great coaching job with mediocre talent he has the #2 D in points allowed & the redzone D is excellent. In the last game at SD they were exposed at LB for the lack of closing speed & opposite Samuels there is a revolving door at corner. On Sunday they'll need to give Hobbs safety help on Wayne & trust Samuels to shut down Harrison primarily on his own. With that said look for them to constantly mix up the coverages in respect for Manning's ability to read defenses. Up front I would actually expect the focus early on to be on stopping the run & not so much on getting in Peyton's face. They can live with an early score or 2, but sustained lengthy drives early would crush any hopes of a comeback IMO. And it would also easily set up Manning to audible to play action for the 2nd half. The Pat's stellar DL should be more than capable of stopping the run w/o help from the safeties. If the game is close & it comes down to a FG you'd have to be a fool now to give Indy the advantage with Adam's history, especially indoors. I'm banking on the opinion/hope that it won't come down to that. Prediction: Pats 41 Colts 27
Reading that breakdown, you could almost forget that the Colts beat the Patriots earlier this season, has a better record and is a higher seed. How could anyone not make the Patriots 14 point favorites? And to think that I questioned Bakes objectivity!
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (bakes781)</div><div class='quotemain'>The running game has never been better in the Belichick era.</div> Actually, in 2004, the Patriots gained 2,134 yards rushing vs. 1,969 this year. <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Maroney's homerun threat should give the Pats confidence they don't have to rely soley on Brady.</div> You would think that if Maroney is such a homerun threat then his yards per carry average (4.3) would be higher than Joseph Addai's (4.8). Maroney did have more 20+ carries than Addai did, so wouldn't that mean he has a lot more shorter distance carries in order for his yards per carry to be lower than Addai's. Just sayin.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (DolfanDale)</div><div class='quotemain'>Reading that breakdown, you could almost forget that the Colts beat the Patriots earlier this season, has a better record and is a higher seed. How could anyone not make the Patriots 14 point favorites? And to think that I questioned Bakes objectivity!</div> Colts are also at home. They should be the favorite. I would say a 3 point favorite would make the most sense. However that only matters to gamblers. As long as they win then it won't matter. I must say I was rooting for a New England vs. New Orleans Super Bowl but the whole "you hate us because we're good routine" is rather annoying.
Just imagine this game will end up with Adam Venitari and Stephen Gostkowski? You know take turn kicking fieldgoal.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (porky88)</div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (DolfanDale)</div><div class='quotemain'>Reading that breakdown, you could almost forget that the Colts beat the Patriots earlier this season, has a better record and is a higher seed. How could anyone not make the Patriots 14 point favorites? And to think that I questioned Bakes objectivity!</div> Colts are also at home. They should be the favorite. I would say a 3 point favorite would make the most sense. However that only matters to gamblers. As long as they win then it won't matter. I must say I was rooting for a New England vs. New Orleans Super Bowl but the whole "you hate us because we're good routine" is rather annoying.</div> 3 point favorites? I know that the Colts are 9-0 in the RCA Dome this year, but they are playing the Patriots! I'm sure Bakes figured the Colts home record into his "objective" breakdown, so without being undefeated at home, the Colts would probably be 28 point underdogs.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (porky88)</div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (DolfanDale)</div><div class='quotemain'>Reading that breakdown, you could almost forget that the Colts beat the Patriots earlier this season, has a better record and is a higher seed. How could anyone not make the Patriots 14 point favorites? And to think that I questioned Bakes objectivity!</div> Colts are also at home. They should be the favorite. I would say a 3 point favorite would make the most sense. However that only matters to gamblers. As long as they win then it won't matter. I must say I was rooting for a New England vs. New Orleans Super Bowl but the whole "you hate us because we're good routine" is rather annoying.</div> You can pick whoever you want I really don't care. You get 3 points for being at home, so basically Vegas is saying on a nuetral field these 2 are pick'em. They just happened to replay that game from earlier in this season. If you noticed the Pats were driving for the tieing score when they had their 2nd INT off a tipped pass in that 4th quarter. Now I know turnovers are apart of the game, but if you're banking on Faulk tipping another pass into the waiting hands of Kato June you're in trouble. The Pats were in that game from start to finish & simply had a couple of bad bounces. Both teams have headed in different directions since then. It's going to be a competitive game, but the Pats will come out on top. Provide me something other than well the Colts already beat them & maybe I'll listen. Btw the Chargers were the only other team undefeated at home.
Yeah, Porky, because actually beating the other team is a crappy criteria (didn't you learn anything from the Patriots-Broncos games?) when put up against the formidable excuses of a homer. (<-Bakes word, not mine!) I bet the Patriots have a whole extra weeks of scoring built up from time that they got shut out by the Dolphins 21-0. I'm thinking that the Patriots should be 35 points favorites over the Colts. Whacha say, Bakes?
Dale isn't willing to get into a serious discussion b/c he knows in his heart the Pats are going to win.
I'm not too sure about that. I know we CAN win, but will we do it? Will we repeat playoff history one more time and pull it out again? We shall see.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (bakes781)</div><div class='quotemain'>Dale isn't willing to get into a serious discussion b/c he knows in his heart the Pats are going to win.</div> I tried to get into a serious discussion yesterday. I brought up actual on field production to support my position and I was told that I was being bias by a guy who said, "I can be as big a homer as I want to be." I don't see the point in being serious today. Except seriously sarcastic. Tell me, Bakes, why is the Colts actually beating the Patriots not a decent reason for thinking they might do it again this weekend, but suppling "if and buts" regarding the Patriots is a good reason to refute te idea? Oh crap, I asked another direct question. Go ahead and tell me that I just hate thePatriots because they are so good again.
The reasons have already been stated. Although they lost the Pats were very much in the game if you actually watched the game. We had 2 INTs off tipped passes(1 off our on player) late in the 4th quarter. Those are fluky plays that you can't account for. As we all know games are decided by one or 2 plays & in that game we had everything go against us. Yet we still were within 1 score. Since then the WRs for NE have developed a rapport w/ Brady. Great playoff stat in the playoffs thus far is that the combo of Gaffney/Caldwell has twice the production of the Wayne/Harrison duo. The defense has had time to deal with the loss of Harrison, which occured in that last game against Indy. And the rookie kicker(6-6 in the postseason) got his 1st clutch K on the road out of the way last week in SD.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (bakes781)</div><div class='quotemain'>The reasons have already been stated. Although they lost the Pats were very much in the game if you actually watched the game. We had 2 INTs off tipped passes(1 off our on player) late in the 4th quarter. Those are fluky plays that you can't account for. As we all know games are decided by one or 2 plays & in that game we had everything go against us. Yet we still were within 1 score. Since then the WRs for NE have developed a rapport w/ Brady. Great playoff stat in the playoffs thus far is that the combo of Gaffney/Caldwell has twice the production of the Wayne/Harrison duo. The defense has had time to deal with the loss of Harrison, which occured in that last game against Indy. And the rookie kicker(6-6 in the postseason) got his 1st clutch K on the road out of the way last week in SD.</div> I can't agree with being able to just write off turnovers as an excuse for losing. The Colts made the plays that they needed to make in a hostile enviroment. The WR production is a good point, but I would counter that the Patriots didn't play the Ravens so that skews that stat somewhat, besides I'm not sure that you can make accurate observations off of just two games. It might be more accurate to include the last three games of the regular season if your looking for trends. The Patriots have won a Super Bowl with a more depleted defensive backfield, but they had the Colts in New Englad where the bad weather played to the Patriots favor. It should be interesting to see if the Patriots DBs can hang when they are playing on the turf in a climate controlled RCA Dome. The rookie kicker looks good so far, but given Vinatieri's track record, I have to give the kicking advantage to the Colts. I'll agree with Pats420. The Patriots can win this game, but I'm not convinced that they will. If they don't bring their A-game, I would be surprised to see them win.
Chargers D isn't exactly swiss cheese. Patriots have an excellent record on turf & so that won't be a factor IMO. And the offense has proven they can win via the pass or the ground. I will say the Colts are starting to show that they can win both ways as well, which is why I think stopping Addai early will be key.
Some yahoo on ESPN (Schlereth ?) pointed out that the key matchup was the Pats Safeties vs Dallas Clark. Previously, NE has controlled the part of the game and when they do... they win He stated that the Pats Safeties were not as good as in year past and that Clark has come into his own this season and that could be the difference. I am somewhat inclined to agree especially if Harrison doesn't play.
I highly doubt Rodney plays, but if they win he'll almost certainly be ready for the SB. Took me awhile since most sports sites are blocked, but I finally found the official stats on the WR combos for both teams this postseason: Gaffney/Caldwell have combined for 30 catches for 337 yards and two touchdowns. Harrison/Wayne have combined 16 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown. That's a good point about Clark. He's great at finding holes in the zone. Limiting his YAC will be very important. The Colts run game while good is no where near as worrisome as the Chargers was. The Pats won't need to put 8 men in the box therefore the safety can account for Clark in the passing game.
The thing that bugs me & I think most Pats fans is any sign of falter in NE the national media wants to presume the Pats dynasty dead & buried. In the offseason I can accept that yes they lost a lot of key players through FA. There was concern in Patriot Nation. But half way through the season they had already a 4-0 division record & they had a convincing win over Cinci. However as soon as they lost to Indy the flood waters came in full force that the Pats were done & every1 beat their chest that they had called it in the offseason. Despite beating Chicago & most recently SD the Pats will be hearing the same thing all over again if they lose on Sunday. IMO the Pats have already accomplished a successful season by beating the best team in SD, but with that said losing to the Colts would really suck.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (bakes781)</div><div class='quotemain'>That's a good point about Clark. He's great at finding holes in the zone. Limiting his YAC will be very important. The Colts run game while good is no where near as worrisome as the Chargers was. The Pats won't need to put 8 men in the box therefore the safety can account for Clark in the passing game.</div> But, does that then Free up Addai & Rhodes to gallop away? Thus forcing 8 back in the box & freeing up Clark. If anyone has a scheme and contingencies, its Belichick. Ought to be real interesting on Sunday. The AFC should be more interesting than the NFC but thats no surprise... The AFC is better.
The Colts have notoriously struggled with 3-4 defenses & I think the front 7 specifically the front 3 should be more than capable of containing the Indy ground game on their own.
