Well right now Vegas has the Pelicans +310 to make the playoffs. That means they think their 3:1 odds that they miss the playoffs. Now Vegas lines are trying to get wagers that they can win so maybe they think there's even less of a chance that the Pelicans win but it's right around 33% that they would make the playoffs meaning a 66% chance they'll miss them but like I said a 3:1 payout means they really want people making that bet especially when you see that the Wolves are 1:10 and the Clippers are 1:6 so they really aren't trying to incentivize betting on those two teams. Then if they miss the playoffs the highest in the lotto they could possibly get at this point is 10th which has a 14% chance to land a top 4 pick. More likely they'll end up 11th or 12th with a 8% or 8.5% chance to move up and take their pick back from us. Really when all is said and done, they don't have great odds of getting into the playoffs and their odds to move up in the draft are even longer so with all of those numbers. So if they have a 33% chance to make the playoffs and an 8.5% chance to move up through the lottery then we have to multiply the remainder of the two percentages to get our odds of keeping the pick. If those were truly the numbers which the first one is highly speculative and the second is pretty much solid, we have a 61.3% chance of keeping the pick. Like I said though, the idea that they actually have a 33% chance of making the playoffs is highly speculative and given the payouts of the teams favored to make the playoffs Vegas likely thinks the Pelicans odds of making are even worse.
Why do they need to beat them twice? Don’t they just need to beat SA and then the loser of Minn and LAC once?
Here’s what we know so far: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nba.com/news/2022-nba-play-in-tournament-schedule?amp=1
With the Knicks win, we'll have to pay attention to the results of the Pelicans game tonight. If they lose they are in the 11th spot in the lotto (barring the devastation that would be them getting into the playoffs) while if they lose, there will be a tie breaker drawing a few days after the play in tourney is over... I think it was on the first day of the playoffs last season it was on May 25th which was like three or four days into the playoffs.
Murray back on the floor tonight for Spurs. Not much of a game for him but it's good to see him getting some play before they go against Pels in playin game.
ESPN recap says he was given the rest of the night off. Weird that they played him at all if they were going to pull him that early after having the lead. Like they changed their minds about the importance of the game.
So right now if and hopefully when the Pelicans miss the playoffs they will be slotted 11th for the lotto. As long as they don't get really lucky (they only have a 9.4% chance of getting a top 4 pick) or one of the other three teams behind them does, we'll have the eleventh pick. That is, unless the Spurs win two play in games and in that case we the Pels are in the tenth spot for the lotto and we get the tenth pick if they don't get lucky.
Lot of symmetry in our situation when you dig a bit. Last time we won the #1 pick in the lotto, we started off at the 6th slot.
