I think the argument isn't more so that a lottery pick is what we NEED, but that NOT getting the lottery pick means we're muddled in the middle. I think this team, as currently constructed, would not make a good run this year, and middle of the road it. If we are able to get another solid player, and in 2 years, get into the playoffs... we could make some noise. I understand the "playoff experience now for later" argument, though, too. I'll still stick by saying the 2017-2018 season could be the start of something special.
IMO, barring injury (always have to add that caveat), I don't see this team finishing with a bad enough record to have a good shot at a top-3 pick. I think our best hope to avoid mediocrity is to have Dame continue his path to superstar ranks, have one other guy improve enough to become a realistic All-Star candidate within 3 years, sign a quality vet FA next summer with cap space, and hope that the rest of the ranks provide enough talent to look for a lopsided deal for an All-Star level player who's become disgruntled with his current team.
Bill Simmons and his buddy both took the under on 26.5 wins for us this season. https://soundcloud.com/the-bill-simmons-podcast
But if we middle of the road it this year with this super young and upside roster, doesn't that mean the percentages of us being better next year than this year is good? So if we middle of the road it next year, say 9-10th spot, then next year just as progression and experience take place, we should be 7-9 spot? 6-8? and then this off season do exactly what E_Blazer is saying below... This. 10 likes for you sir!
That is as good of a question as which lottery pick would be available next year to make our team better. Too many factors make this an unknown. Not that contracts are unknown, but who we consider quality now may be different at the end of the season. Plus what we think we need the most now may change by the end of the season. Trying to put a finger on a lotto pick OR a free agent is moot at this point of the juncture. My opinion is lets just root for the Blazers to win and improve. IF they do this with this current roster it will all come into place a couple years from now when we are truly a contender.
Mind you, I don't think we'll suck (HCP 20 win range), I think we WILL finish in the middle of the pack, and may squeak in to a playoff spot. I am merely trying to be a person in the middle and speak for both sides. I think we're 3 years away from contending, regardless.
Worst outcome for me is that we end up with the 8-11 pick. Not bad enough to get a good lotto pick, but not enough spark to think we may not need it. Reality is that the odds are pretty good that is where we will be.
I looked up next year's Free Agent class, and here are the unrestricted free agents. A lot of them aren't even worth discussing, I've bolded the ones who we might have even the slightest chance of signing: LBJ - won't sign here Durant - won't sign here Dwight - won't sign here Drummond Horford - won't sign here Pau - won't sign here / too old Wade - won't sign here / too old Conley - not a position of need DeRozan - blech Noah - blech, too broken Parsons - blech Duncan - hahaha Kobe - hahaha, won't sign here, too old, too broken Jefferson - blech Dirk - hahaha, won't sign here, too old Rondo - not a position of need Whiteside Hibbert - blech Clarkson - not a position of need Jennings - not a position of need Mosgov Nic Deng - blech, too old Turner Smoove - blech Green Johnson - too old West - too old I could go on, but it's pretty clear that we're not going to sign a superstar next summer, and even a star is a long-shot. In order to get another star/superstar or two we need to draft 'em or trade for 'em. And right now the only two stars that I can see potentially being on the trading block are Melo and Cousins. I hate (HATE!) Melo, but given the weakness of the wing position he'd probably be the most bang for our buck.
What does that have to do with his comment about money? When you do your schtick, make sure it's actually pertaining to what you're replying to. #thedetails
Man... I'm completely staying away from predicting how many wins. 1) Because I don't really care if we win games this season. My goals are completely about the development of our talent. If wins come in the process, great, if not...... more lotto balls. 2) This team is a complete mystery. It's like dealing you five cards in Texas Holdem, NOT turning them over, and then dealing the flop and asking me to bet, all without seeing the cards in my hand. Our known players are like the flop, but right now the rest of our roster is like a bunch of unknown cards in my hand that I can't see. I have no clue how we're going to play together. I have no clue how well Dame and CJ are going to play once the action matters. I have no clue how well our really young guys are going to perform. I really can't pin a number on this team.
Yep! Also, Why would Horford not come here? I always liked him. Is it just because of fighting for playing minutes?
