Unfortunately having to work most of today, so not able to join in a lot of the draft fun, but taking a quick break to share a quick story with you guys that might help explain the thinking if we really do just draft players tonight and/or don't end up shipping guys out for free like some of you are wanting... Some of you know that, on occasion, I have the chance to talk to a couple different NBA GMs in a setting where they have absolutely no reason to lie, BS, or generally do anything other than shoot me straight... Was talking to another team's GM (a very successful one, at that) a few weeks back, and I specifically asked him about the trade value of guys like Crabbe and Leonard, given their less-than expected output last year and their high price tags. His response, paraphrased, was this: "Everybody talks about how hard guys like those are to move, and everyone assumes that's because of their contract, it's not that at all. If Neil wanted to take cents on the dollar for Crabbe or Meyers, he'd have plenty of offers to choose from. The reason guys like that are hard to move is because they underperformed. If you look at young guys like that in that situation -- where they go from a rookie deal to a big 2nd contract, a ton of them underperform that first year -- and we all know that, we all expect that. But typically, their worlds slow down after that and they go back to being the player they were when they signed that deal. Those are the types of guys that can be difference makers on your roster if you can acquire them cheaply, but again, we're all low-balling each other for guys like that. THAT'S why those guys are tough to trade -- in the NBA, it's better to overpay for an asset like those guys and hold onto them in hopes that you can at least get fair value for them later, than compound your problem by taking table scraps for them." I've been alluding to this the past few days in my few posts, but here's my read on the situation -- OBVIOUSLY Porzingas, Butler, or even a Paul George rental, at a decent value would be beneficial to this team, but realistically that's not going to happen. As much as it will pain the masses, the ideal path forward -- if a bankable NBA vet isn't available -- is to continue to amass assets. That means getting good talent/value with our draft picks, but it also means trying to regain some trade value for Meyers and Crabbe (possibly Turner too, but my gut tells me Neil sees Turner as an important part of the team's core). Yes, they'll eventually have to be dealt, but if they can rebound like this GM was suggesting they will, the difference -- in just a few months -- between having to pay to unload them and getting paid for them, could have a significant impact on the future of this franchise. I asked the GM, "what if they don't bounce back"... He chuckled and said (again, paraphrasing) "there will always be a market for shooters and young, reasonably athletic 7-footers who can stick the 3, Neil will be okay". So take all of that for whatever its worth, I guess. Neil's goal for this team isn't to get back to being relevant or even very good; it's to win a championship, and that takes nuance, patience, luck, and perhaps more importantly, vision.
Awesome stuff. This is inline with what the actual sane people on this board have been preaching. Are their contracts great value like Aminu's? Absolutely not. But the market dictated the salaries last year and people got overpaid. It's a league-wide problem, not just a Blazer problem. If we make no moves and take three players tonight it will be disappointing from an "I want some Blazer-related-news" POV, but in reality if we don't make a move it's because it's not time to cash in yet. We have a 4-5 year window for Dame/CJ to compete at their absolute apex. We just need to make a couple year run sometime within that period.
Is @glazeduck DC69? Either way, great story and write up, and welcome. It has become very obvious that most of us fans do not have a clue about how GMs think, and the trade value of players. Just look at some of the trades made lately to see how far off we are. Anytime we can get the thoughts from true insiders, we are getting sold gold info. Thank you glazeduck.
Not the same thing. This GM doesn't consider those contracts mistakes: He chuckled and said (again, paraphrasing) "there will always be a market for shooters and young, reasonably athletic 7-footers who can stick the 3, Neil will be okay". He actually considers those signings shrewd moves by Neil. "... in the NBA, it's better to overpay for an asset like those guys and hold onto them in hopes that you can at least get fair value for them later, than compound your problem by taking table scraps for them." So yes, he agrees that we shouldn't pay somebody to take those guys, but he doesn't consider their contracts as mistakes. BNM
Ha! I am not DC69, but that guy knows his stuff. Wish he would share it more often... I've been around forever, just don't post a ton. Appreciate the positive responses. I've been sitting on this story for a bit because I don't want to come across as a know-it-all, or as though I'm a huge Blazers insider... A couple more thoughts on the general situation: I think most, if not all of the "Blazers looking to shed salary" rumors are 100% media-driven. Which also means uninformed (in terms of the actual workings of the CBA) as well as click-baity. Certainly everyone's welcome to their interpretation of value, what's best for this team, etc. but when those opinions are being based around content that's not based in any amount of fact, research, or sincerity (rather than the desire to drive clicks), I don't think it does anyone any good. Really wonder how Neil feels about his 2 stars being so vocal about getting another star player, that can't help negotiation leverage or the perceived amount of pressure on him. I get that they want to win now, but at some point, the reality that Golden State has built an all-time great roster needs to be taken into consideration. Shoot your shot too early and your chances of a Championship might rest on hoping one of those guys suffers a season-ending injury. Bide your time and find the right time to strike and your chances go up... Just don't want to wait too long... Last thought -- I think we should be taking the relative silence in terms of Blazers' rumors as a positive. Do people think Neil's just on the beach sipping Mai-Tais? He absolutely LOVES Porzingas. I'm not saying that I have any insights into what he will do tonight or even if we've had discussions with PJ, but it really feels like the general consensus for some reason is that he's just sitting on his hands. The fact that there aren't more rumors about the Blazers tells me that he's very serious about trying to make something happen...
great post, thanks. Part of me wants them traded now. But, I think we all have always known (and I have said such before) that the trade value of Biebs and Crabbe will go up next year when their contracts are a year shorter and they have a chance to redeem themselves. As for "mistakes," I don't think signing Biebs for $10 mil/per was a mistake. I'm more unsure about the Crabbe contract. One of the things that got me excited was someone posting a January 2017 tweet about Minny liking ET's game and how it was underrated. It suggests that his tradability is higher than many here have made out.
I feel like people keep forgetting this. Golden State drafted Curry. They drafted Klay Thompson. They drafted Draymond. They traded for Iggy. Obviously Durant signing there made a huge difference, but this team won 73 games without Durant. They deserve a lot of credit. Every team should aspire to build a winner in a similar fashion as Golden State.
I think this is a rock solid tweet thread by Casey and backs up what Glazed is saying. These contracts aren't being paid for with our money. It's PA's. If Allen and Olshey have decided that gathering assets to package is worth paying one of the highest payrolls in the NBA, then we should consider ourselves a DAMN LUCKY fanbase and hopefully sit back and enjoy the ride. FA has proven to be an avenue we will never win from. Why not try and go the other way by accumulating assets and trading for a star?
No question. But like I said, there's a lot of luck there too... David Kahn drafted TWO PGs ahead of Curry (also, Hasheem Thabeet and Tyreke Evans also went ahead of him). Jimmer Freddette went right ahead of Klay. 34 players went ahead of Draymond. How many things had to fall the right way for KD to want to leave OKC?
don't forget about the Curry injury. If Curry's getting maxed out, then they're paying luxury tax before they win they're 1st ship. They'd be in repeater territory and wouldn't consider getting KD.
They actually signed Iggy as a free agent, but they had to do a major salary-dump trade to open up space for him, so I guess you could still think of it like a trade.
Good info GlazedD---. Go Beavs! Next time, might be a good idea to not include "Quick" in your thread title. I almost ignored it because I assumed it was about Mr Clueless Jason Quick.
Andris Biedrins, Brandon Rush and Richard Jefferson. Plus some picks to make it worth the Jazz's while.
