Playoffs = nope

Discussion in 'Golden State Warriors' started by AlleyOop, Jan 28, 2011.

  1. Doctor Kajita

    Doctor Kajita Active Member

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    Although advanced metrics aren't mentioned publicly when trades happen, you can bet the teams considering said player uses them. If not in negotiations, internally to assess a player of interest. It's not like these stats are a hidden secret.

    While Monta's trade value may be very high right now, there's too much evidence that shows why he isn't an elite player. Durant, Stoudamire, LeBron, DWade, Kobe...all those guys have more than just per game offensive statistics that bring them great value. They're known for either being very efficient, having size, playing defense, etc. You know, having the total package or close to it. Monta's got too much going against him to ever be in that category. I'd love to be proven wrong while Monta is on the team, but that seems unlikely.
     
  2. CohanHater

    CohanHater JBB JustBBall Member

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    I wonder if the Warriors had a reliable 2 behind him what his minutes/efficiency numbers would look like. Something tells me those numbers would adjust upwards as well.
     
  3. Run BJM

    Run BJM Heavy lies the crown. Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Don't think hes available. Kind of reminds me of Monta at the 2 though. JSmith is a great player but perhaps inherently flawed because of his size. He really doesn't have the perimeter skills to play the 3. Very good player, just don't know if I can see a team reaching the finals with him as their 4.

    And I think Iggy gets brought up because we keep describing our prototype replacement SG as big, athletic, defensive minded, team oriented, etc. and he fits the bill to a tee. Additionally hes been mentioned in a lot of trade rumors. There are other options for moving Monta, I think the two types of teams you have to look at are teams who want a face of the franchise/legit go to offensive option and playoff teams looking to get to the next level.

    Cleveland is an intriguing option to me. Dan Gilbert is desperate to get them back to relevance quickly. They have a lot of nice pieces but severely lack star talent. To me this one is really dependent on whether you can wrestle either Varejao or Hickson away from them. Would they move one of those two plus Ramon Sessions and Anthony Parker for Monta? I dunno. Maybe Monta isn't a fit there next to Mo Williams though...but they are friends via a Jackson, MS connection.

    Seems like Indiana and Granger keeps coming up as well. There are a lot of mixed feelings on Granger. He looks great to me whenever I watch him but apparently hes a ballhog extraordinaire and his efficiency gets worse with each passing season. Seems a little suspect. I guess it depends on whether you think he would blend in with Curry or would he continue to demand the ball and tons of shots?

    Dallas is one that I keep thinking of as well. I've been a big fan of Caron Butler for a long time now so it sucks that hes out for the year but I don't think they would even make this trade if he was healthy. But hes done for the year, Cuban likes big moves and wants to add talent and bury other western contenders, perhaps he smells blood in the water over in La La Land and wants to really load up. They have Kidd who seems like he'd be better off switching over and defending SGs who have less quickness. The problem here is who could we get in return. Would they move Haywood and do we want him? I don't think they would move Marion. They'd probably cough up Beaubois since they'd still have Monta/Terry/Barea. Thats about it though as far as pieces we could/would take back. Marion seems like a good addition to that trade but they don't have anyone else to plug in at SF so they wouldn't move him.

    And here's a dark horse for you, how about the Lakers? They're looking a little down, maybe looking to shake things up. Kobe and Pau aren't getting any younger. Maybe they think they can make Monta into a triangle PG. And what a triangle Monta-Kobe-Pau would be. I'd hate to trade him to the Lakers but I could see some interest there. Their core is getting old. I think they could see adding Monta as a way to keep that window for contending open a few years longer and additionally have a Monta/Bynum tandem in the post Kobe-Gasol era. You don't need to be a pure PG to play the triangle under Phil. I think Phil may really be looking for someone to take some of that offensive pressure off of Kobe and Pau. Dunno what they would/could move but maybe Odom and Shannon Brown? They probably want to throw Artest in there which I'm not crazy about but even as an over the hill player his defense is light years ahead of what we've got. Perhaps we can demand Derrick Caracter or Ebanks as well who look like decent prospects. I think if they're convinced Monta can work in the triangle, expand their window for contending, etc. then they would move a lot of their good supporting cast players and take the time and growing pains of teaching him the triangle and worry about filling in with more role players down the line.

    I think there's other teams out there too. As for ones looking for faces of the franchise you've got Toronto, NJ, Minny, Detroit, Charlotte. And playoff teams who could make an addition include Portland, Denver, Chicago. None of the above trades get us back a star type player but I think this team could be much improved with two or three good, defensive minded, rebounding, big, athletic rotation players.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2011
  4. jason bourne

    jason bourne JBB JustBBall Member

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    One wants to get a young player, a first round pick and cap relief for Monta. Jru, Iggy and a first round pick would be close.
     
  5. Run BJM

    Run BJM Heavy lies the crown. Staff Member Global Moderator

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    No way they give up Jrue at all let alone Iggy with him. At best Iggy/Speights or Iggy/Hawes.
     
  6. i hate the warriors

    i hate the warriors Slingboxing from LONDON

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    Yeah, I agree. If we could get Holiday and Iguodala, I would do it in an instant. I just don't see Philly being down with that. Also, @Run, for what it's worth I was suggesting Josh Smith at the 3. I wouldn't want him at the 4 either.
     
  7. jason bourne

    jason bourne JBB JustBBall Member

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    Where are the stats that point out that Monta isn't an elite player? He deserves to be an all-star this year. Checking his efficiency proved to me that he belongs in the elite class and I think his outside shooting has room for improvement. He's up there in clutchness.

    http://www.82games.com/1011/CSORT11.HTM

    Curry isn't even on there. Holiday and Brand show up for Philly.

    As for the high minutes, I rather see him play less (not 48 mins!), but it could be because the other players aren't stepping up. Like I said, if Ellis was not producing, then his minutes would not go down like Curry's. Curry's minutes are down this year. How else do you explain it? Both Nelson and Smart played Monta close to 41+ mins on average. Both coaches put in Monta because he puts pressure on the defense and draws double teams.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2011
  8. i hate the warriors

    i hate the warriors Slingboxing from LONDON

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    I notice that sometimes our offense gets reaaaaaally stale, and we start settling for jump shots from people who shouldn't be shooting jump shots. And it's usually Monta that takes over and puts some points on the board. Now, I don't like that he has to "take over" to produce some offense, but sometimes it seems like the only thing that works. I just get scared that if we trade him for a stopper, we lose that ability to get out of an offensive slump.
     
  9. AlleyOop

    AlleyOop JBB JustBBall Member

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    That's a valid concern, I think. Monta is instant offense. A go-to guy, for better or worse. I mean, if he were just plain out of the line-up, and you had Reggie Williams in there, as in Curry/Williams/Wright/Lee/Beans... who would be the go to guy? Right now, Williams!?

    Well, IMO, I think Curry can be a Deron Williams type, go-to point guard. Yes he can run the team, but this is just year two, and he's still maturing physically. I think within a year or two, he'll be the floor general and the go-to guy. In that case, you don't really need a 20 shot/night high volume SG. You need a compliment to Curry: good defender, passer, spot-up shooter, and finisher.

    Of course, my whole thing is that I've been banking on Curry becoming a true star. An all-star PG, 20 PPG and 10 APG, within a few years. So if I'm wrong, then the model changes...
     
  10. Doctor Kajita

    Doctor Kajita Active Member

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    I think so too, but your main SG is still undersized and a defensive liability.
     
  11. Doctor Kajita

    Doctor Kajita Active Member

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    Monta is tied with Stack Jack as the leading turnover SG in the league (3.3 per game)

    Monta is one of the worst rebounding SG's in the league (at least for the ones that play 30+/35+ mins). This wouldn't be so bad if the Warriors were actually good at rebounding, but they're not.

    I don't know guys, if you look a little closer, it's very clear that Monta's not elite or superstar or whatever label that thrusts him into the upper echelon of NBA greatness.

    Some of it might not be his fault (thin bench, bad coaching) but how much longer are we going to keep giving excuses for the guy?

    I love him and would love to see him succeed here, but it just seems very unlikely. The problem is, the league knows this and we're just not going to get someone elite for him in a trade.

    I would love to be proven wrong on all fronts that Monta will become a superstar, elite level player that leads his team to deep playoff success.
     
  12. jason bourne

    jason bourne JBB JustBBall Member

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    Curry and Lee aren't strong defensively, but Monta gets the bulk of the blame because he's short. I agree Monta is short for the prototypical 2, but it's an advantage on offense. As for turnovers, it's because he gets the ball so much. If other players could score in crunch time, then it would not be so high. Guys who are go-to guys and drive to the hoop usually have a higher turnover rate anyway. It's not what is key. Again if Ellis' production is low and he hurts the team more than he helps it win, then he would be on the bench.
     
  13. AlleyOop

    AlleyOop JBB JustBBall Member

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    Oh, I'm not trying to say he's a superstar. I guess I'm misunderstood. I mean, I'm the guy who just started a thread titled "Monta's Defense Sucks." I'm the guy who wants to trade Monta for substance over flash (Iggy+equalizer for Monta).

    My point is that, on paper, there's no denying he belongs in the top-tier/echelon/star/elite whatever category you want to call it. I think it's fair to say that Monta is one of the top SGs in the league.

    The reason why I'm trying to argue that bit about "on paper" is because I'm hoping that we would get a good trade value for him in return. I think he deserves to be "honored" with good trade value, based on his numbers, on paper.

    As far as his value to this particular team, I love the kid but GS will never win with Monta/Curry. It looks flashy at times, but that's a paper thin perimeter defensively (see my other thread for that).

    So, I'm not trying to argue that Monta is a superstar. I'm just saying that, on paper (again), he should be honored with top--tier trade value. Plus he's one of the hottest players in the league the past few months.
     
  14. jason bourne

    jason bourne JBB JustBBall Member

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    I heard the game on KNBR tonight and the W's weren't playing well. They did it in crunch time with Monta leading the way. I wouldn't trade him. The guy gets wins. The other Warriors have to step up. I like Lee. He's a fighter and gets boards. Curry isn't there yet, but he's still young. I wouldn't count on him to run the team just yet. But really we still need rebounding and someone who can score and get to the line in the front court. We're in last place in rebounding difference.

    BTW Monta got ripped in the all-star selections. He and Kevin Love should've made it. I'd take out Tim Duncan and Yao Ming and replace them with those two.
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2011
  15. Doctor Kajita

    Doctor Kajita Active Member

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    Oh no, I totally get your position. I figured since we're doing the exercise of throwing around numbers, might as well include the bad ones too ;)

    Sorry for any misunderstanding.
     
  16. Doctor Kajita

    Doctor Kajita Active Member

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    Possibility that Deron Williams may sit out the AS game as well as Dirk, so there may be a chance Monta will make it.
     
  17. AlleyOop

    AlleyOop JBB JustBBall Member

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    Oh, no problem, lol, I just need people to help convince me that we can actually get a deal done! :)

    As far as all-star snub, I don't know about Monta.

    But, as much as Blake Griffin has been a beast this year, it's not like his team is %500. So, in that light, Kevin Love has better numbers. Both guys are on losing teams.

    But Blake is getting 23 PPG/12.7 RPG while love is getting 21.4 PPG/15.5 RPG. They both get no blocks. So then, look at percentages:

    Blake 52% FG/61%FT. Love 47%FG/87%FT. So Blake from the field, Love from the line. Look at three. Blake is actually 50%, but only 12 attempts, so that's probably a fluke. Love is 44% shooting 148 attempts. Love is a legit 3pt shooter as well as an insane rebounder.

    The last time someone averaged over 15 boards was Ben Wallace in 2002-2003. But to do that and 20+ PPG... I don't even know the last time that happened.

    So, because neither guy is on a wining team, I say Love deserves it over Blake. Of course, Yao shouldn't be on there at all, but the league doesn't really care about what should be happening. I mean, fan voting is pretty lame to start with.
     
  18. Doctor Kajita

    Doctor Kajita Active Member

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    Yao Ming and the whole NBA thing in China must be a huge deal for David Stern. I wonder what's going to happen when Yao retires. That sounds like a lot of money lost.

    Anyway, I agree that Love should have made it over Griffin. Even though I wonder how much of Love's numbers are due in part that he's on a losing team. Probably an insignificant amount. The dude is a beast when it comes to rebounding.
     
  19. CohanHater

    CohanHater JBB JustBBall Member

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    Rebounding numbers aren't ones that usually get improved from being on a bad team. If nobody else blocks out, then you can't get the board, no matter how good you pin your guy back. I agree that Love should be there as well. Aldridge too before Griffin. Those guys are monsters out there. Griffin is amazing, but he's not an All-Star quite yet, IMO. He's VERY close though. I personally would let him play in the frosh-soph game and let him grow into the All-Star role next year.
     
  20. jason bourne

    jason bourne JBB JustBBall Member

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    I heard that guards are favored over big men in the all-star game. I guess cause they're more flashy over a big man and because defense isn't emphasized. I got my fingers crossed and hope the Warriors don't get snubbed again.

    I'm not sure if coaches voting is good. They seem to favor past all-stars and whether the team is winning or not. Love has been incredible all season, he leads the league in dub-dub games and he had the 30-30 game, so he belongs. I'm not as sure about Blake, too, but haven't seen him in person. He's an awesome athlete though. As for the all-snub team, Marc Spears thought that Monta lead the pack:
    http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=Ag6vYuWRPDj3i3ts0.RCSVe8vLYF?slug=mc-allsnubbed020311
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2011

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