Exclusive Playoffs or Lottery?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by TBpup, Dec 22, 2016.

  1. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    If either Sacramento or Denver wins their next game, Portland will get surpassed for the current #8 playoff spot. That may only be temporary but not exactly the company you want to keep. Even if they maintain the #8 spot, that gets them a matchup with the Golden State Warriors which so far this year has been humiliating in it's outcome.

    So what if, like last year, they got hot? Right now, OKC is sitting at #7. If Portland were to go on a 10-game winning streak (which means starting with a win over the Spurs) and if OKC were to continue just to play at the pace they are currently, Portland still would be in the #8 spot just percentage points behind the Thunder.

    upload_2016-12-22_11-11-5.png

    That point is mute because in the next 6 games, they play the Spurs twice and the Warriors/Raptors once mixed in with more winnable games against the Kings and Timberwolves.

    The Blazers are already 6 games out of the #7 spot just 30 games into the season. That is a massive number for so early in the year. The #7 spot is on pace to get 48 wins this year. Last year the #7 seed finished with 42 wins. Portland would have to go 35-16 the rest of the way to get to 48 wins and that might still only be good enough for 8th place. Even if they move up to 7th, they would be rewarded with the Spurs. Both of those are irrelevant at this point as Portland is at a .419 winning percentage and would need to play .686 to get to 48 wins.

    Anyone see that happening anytime soon? We had similar debate last year when Portland was off to such a poor start. The Blazers got hot and then had playoff success which some deemed very valuable. IMO, they overachieved (a good thing) but obviously injuries played a part in the Clippers series as well as being competitive in the Warriors series.

    You would have thought they would have progressed from last years late season run and the Playoff success but with almost the same roster, they have significantly regressed. I hate losing games but I hate 'basketball purgatory' even more which is right where I believed Portland was going into last season. That hot streak and Playoff series win now looks like an aberration rather than a continued improvement.

    Portland isn't just losing, they are getting blown out more than any other team in the league.

    What is even more unfortunate is Dame will be 27 next year and entering the prime of his career. That has something like a 3-5 year window and Portland is no where near being able to take advantage of that.

    So will getting torched in the playoffs, if the Warriors/Spurs are healthy, help grow the franchise or would a Lottery pick/asset do more to move this team forward? Right now, Draft Express does not have one single PF or C in their Top 14 projected picks. Of course it is very early but it is mostly PG/SG and SF dominated.
    http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2017/

    The roster is flawed, and performance has regressed. But how did we get from basically the same roster having so much energy, intensity, passion and drive to find a hot streak and some playoff success.....to this?
     

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  2. JFizzleRaider

    JFizzleRaider Sad Panda Global Moderator

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    Lotto plz
     
  3. EL PRESIDENTE

    EL PRESIDENTE Username Retired in Honor of Lanny.

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    Playoffs.
     
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  4. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    I'm all for that if we weren't going to just be cannon fodder. Right now, that would be the case.
     
  5. EL PRESIDENTE

    EL PRESIDENTE Username Retired in Honor of Lanny.

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    Don't really care, we have assets to make trades and the buildup to be a good team. Everyone just hates each other it seems. I look at our roster and see last year's Houston Rockets, but look at them now.
     
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  6. Nikolokolus

    Nikolokolus There's always next year

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    People were playing for their contracts and I think that roster generally overachieved (certainly over what most "experts" had predicted). This year I think it's combination of not having as much internal motivation (for money) and a regression to the mean ... or a regression below the mean.
     
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  7. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    Yes, the Rockets have made a major improvement. They also have a guy in the backcourt who just wants to be the best defensive on-ball guard in the league. Whether he is or not, that is his attitude. We have two scorers that don't seem interested at all in playing defense. I've long advocated CJ be traded or be a 6th man because those two just CAN NOT be the first line of defense (or lack there of).
     
  8. EL PRESIDENTE

    EL PRESIDENTE Username Retired in Honor of Lanny.

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    Who?

    We can only trade CJ if it gets us an allstar in return in a consolidation trade. Only option.
     
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  9. Chris Craig

    Chris Craig (Blazersland) I'm Your Huckleberry Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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  10. SheedSoNasty

    SheedSoNasty Well-Known Member

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    Lotto. Develop Vonleh, Layman and Napier and bring up the value of tradable pieces.
     
  11. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    He should get something very valuable but CJ is not an all-star himself so demanding one from someone else may/may not work.
     
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  12. EL PRESIDENTE

    EL PRESIDENTE Username Retired in Honor of Lanny.

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    That's why we need a consolidation. A 3 for 1 type of deal. We have a glut of young guys with potential that would be attractive in the right system. Trading CJ for a "defensive minded vet" would be a total waste.
     
  13. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    I'm not suggesting trading him for a 'defensive minded vet' at all. In fact, I think you could get a good defensive piece (ie Noel) w/o including CJ. I agree with the consolidation part for sure as we have too much duplication at the wing position and a number of big that don't play very big.

    Not sure what those pieces get us though.
     
  14. chzbrgr

    chzbrgr Well-Known Member

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    Gather round the dumpster fire boys!:gasoline:

    Trade cj for a young big and some picks cause we headin for the LOTTO!
     
  15. EL PRESIDENTE

    EL PRESIDENTE Username Retired in Honor of Lanny.

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    Name a young big you would trade CJ for.

    IMO, it has to be someone who is an allstar or has the potential to be. The list is very short.
     
  16. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    The Boogieman....in a heartbeat. I trust Dame as a leader to help him grow and cut out some of that antics nonsense.
     
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  17. chzbrgr

    chzbrgr Well-Known Member

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    For the record idk if this is possible just a hypothetical

    If you said to me Noel + 1st and second from phily this year+ 1st next year Im on board
     
  18. KeepOnRollin

    KeepOnRollin Well-Known Member

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    If we can get #7 seed or higher (which I believe is do-able, a team above us will go on a slide and drop) then I still want playoffs. If we are getting 8th seed then give me the slim chance of getting a top 3 pick in the lottery instead.
     
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  19. Nikolokolus

    Nikolokolus There's always next year

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    CJ for Noel straight up is about what you can expect. Maybe Philly tosses in a 1st rounder, but I doubt it considering how shitty their record is.
     
  20. Nikolokolus

    Nikolokolus There's always next year

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    Evidence please. The Blazers are currently the worst defensive team in the league and the one doing the sliding and dropping. Short of a trade, what is going to drastically alter this team's fortunes and transform them into a .600+ team for the remaining 50~ games?
     
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