Game Thread PLAYOFFS: ROUND 1, GAME 1: BLAZERS @ NUGGETS - MAY 22, 2021 - SATURDAY, 7:30, ESPN

My homer take is the nuggets give the blazers a lot but that Portland takes it in 7!

 

I give it Denver in 6 or 7 games but if Nurk and the bench come to play we have really good chance to win.

 

The Past has been Difficult.
The Future, Uncertain.
But, Today is a Great Day to Be a Blazer Fan!

Go, Blazers!!!

 

We might be overestimating our defensive improvement. Just two weeks ago, we were thinking we might not even make a play-in. There was tangible improvement in our focus that led to our solid finish, but was it just a mirage?

Jokic is gonna get Nurk in foul trouble early and we're gonna have to deal with Kanter playing him for 25+ mins. And Terry will make adjustments only in Game 4. I don't see us winning more than a game.

 

Is Barton expected to be out? Hamstring strains are tricky, but it will 5 weeks since it happened. I bet he is already good to go.

 

Anybody seen Zach Collins?

 

Thinking we were going to miss the play-in was stupid. Kanter beat Jokic with one arm in 2019. Nuggets should fear us. You’ve got to be kidding to think we’ll lose in 5. We have the better roster and the better coach. If anyone’s winning in 5, it’s us.

 

To win, Denver needs to absolutely dominate at the center position.

Jokic is going to play like an MVP, but honestly we have the best center rotation in the league in terms of guarding him. Portland is going to mostly guard him in single coverage to try to limit his passing, and force Denver to score through Jokic. Our C's are huge and strong as fuck and have 12 fouls to give between them. Jokic is going to spend a fair amount of time away from the paint if he wants to catch his breath, because on the other end our Nurk and Kanter are going to be really active on bodying him up and keeping him involved in screen and rolls and clearing rebounds. There may not be another center alive who knows Jokic better than Nurk.

Their backup centers are Milsap and McGee. Milsap is too small to keep Kanter from boarding, and McGee has been on 9 teams for a reason (the idea of McGee is always better than the reality). Both are about 5 years past their prime.

I'm looking forward to Dame matching up with Facundo Campazzo. Dame never gets a chance to post up guys. You could tell he had fun doing it in the final game of the season on that one play.

 

I noticed at one point last night they had a guard on Jokic on the perimeter and Nurk was just hanging out in the paint. It was a weird defense and Nurk ended up getting a 3 second call for it, but I wonder if there are any outside the box looks we can throw at Jokic. He really has played like an MVP all season and possesses the ability to really kill a team if you let him.

 

is it certain Barton is out for the series?

 

I say lets get the Joker in foul trouble with Powell, Dame & CJ driving to the hoop.

 

I read his statement as, "Let's go Blazers, but the Nuggets got this in six."

 

Collins was at last night's game in an outlandish shirt. I might be wrong, but I really thought he was wearing some kind of minimal boot or brace on his ankle

 

Probably pissed that he didn't get to make the game thread.

 

since nobody has done the useless remedial breakdown yet, it's on me to do it:

* C - Jokic/McGee vs Nurlic Kanter: obviously you have to give the edge to the elite player and Jokic is definitely that. But Jokic is not as mobile as many C's meaning Portland's guys have a good shot at offsetting Jokic with their physicality and work on the boards. Advantage: Nuggets but Blazers could surprise

* Forwards/Wings: Porter, Gordon, Millsap, Green vs Powell, RoCo, Melo: looks like an advantage for the Nuggets. But, a very large playoff experience advantage for Portland. Never know how players are going to react to the first real playoff tests, and this will be that for Porter and Gordon. The Denver 'wings' may have lots of trouble staying in front of Powell. RoCo can limit the player he guards. And Melo is almost certain to have at least one hot game. On the other hand, he's also almost certain to shoot like shit one game and Porter has the skills to really erupt offensively. Advantage: Nuggets, but the somewhat unorthodox Blazer trio will make things interesting

* Back Court: Campazzo, Rivers, Barton (maybe), Morris, Dozier (maybe) vs Dame, CJ, Powell, Ant: giant mismatch on paper and I think it will likely be the same on court. The health and availability of Barton and Dozier will be significant. Mainly though is that Denver doesn't have anybody the class of Jrue Holiday or Klay or Rondo or Beverly or Iggy to cover Dame; and they do not have the personnel to consistently and effectively trap and double Dame without leaving big holes in their defense Portland can exploit. Adding to this is that unlike the past playoff matchups, CJ has actually burned the Nuggest enough that they are unlikely to flex their defense completely toward Dame. And Powell is a wild card here. Advantage: Blazers by a lot, perhaps enough to more than offset the Nugget advantages in the front court

if healthy, the Nuggets have a better bench, but playoff rotations are shortened anyway. The wild card is the Denver elevation, but 'all' Portland needs is 1 of the first 2 games to flip HCA

coaching: tossup

projected winner: