Game Thread PLAYOFFS - ROUND 2, GAME 1: Blazers @ Warriors - 5/1/16, Sunday, 12:30 (PDT), ABC

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by espn_hall_of_famer, Apr 30, 2016.

  1. espn_hall_of_famer

    espn_hall_of_famer Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2009
    Messages:
    684
    Likes Received:
    47
    Trophy Points:
    28





    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]






    2015-16 REGULAR SEASON RECORD
    PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
    44 - 38
    (16-25 Road)
    GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

    73 - 9
    (39-2 Home)




    _____________________________
    ---------
    PROBABLE STARTERS---------


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG] PG [​IMG]
    DAMIAN LILLARD VS SHAUN LIVINGSTON

    [​IMG] SG [​IMG]

    C.J. McCOLLUM VS KLAY THOMPSON

    [​IMG] SF [​IMG]

    MAURICE HARKLESS VS HARRISON BARNES

    [​IMG] PF [​IMG]

    AL-FAROUQ AMINU VS DRAYMOND GREEN

    [​IMG] C [​IMG]

    MASON PLUMLEE VS ANDREW BOGUT


    ------------------------------------------------------




    WHEN: 12:30 PM, SUNDAY, 5/1/2016

    WHERE: ORACLE ARENA, OAKLAND, CA
    [​IMG]



    TV BROADCAST:
    [​IMG]

    RADIO BROADCAST:
    [​IMG]


    ------------------------------------------------------



    --------------BENCH--------------
    PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
    ROBERTS , HENDERSON , CRABBE , MONTERO
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
    CONNAUGHTON , VONLEH , DAVIS , KAMAN

    GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
    CLARK , BARBOSA , RUSH , IGUODALA
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
    McADOO , SPEIGHTS , EZELI , VAREJAO

    INJURIES

    TRAIL BLAZERS
    Meyers Leonard (dislocated left shoulder): OUT
    WARRIORS
    Stephen Curry (MCL sprain, right knee): OUT
    Kevon Looney (left hip surgery): OUT



    HEAD COACHES
    [​IMG] - VS – [​IMG]
    TERRY STOTTS --- STEVE KERR




    :reading:WARRIORS' OFFICIAL GAME NOTES
    :reading:BLAZERS' OFFICIAL GAME NOTES



    REGULAR SEASON SERIES
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    Don't see a game thread yet. I thought I'd go ahead and share some advanced analytics on this forum since I did them and this is a group that would actually appreciate it.

    One thing top handicappers do is take something that can be measured in quantity, but has a similar set of circumstances per occurrences. In basketball, that would looks something like not trying to look at the 4 individual W's and L's between two teams that have met 4 times in the last 6 months, but instead look at the 200 possessions by Team A's offense vs. Team B's defense and vice-versa, then extrapolate R-squared regression probability curves from each of those outcomes when played out thousands of times over. I was doing a bit of this for GS vs. Portland because one fortunate thing you can do with it is see who GS will match up in situations in which they DIDN'T have Curry and how that loss of one person was impacting the average outcomes of each possession on each side of the floor.

    So while the data is clearly going to be smaller without Curry vs. Portland and thus creates a bit larger range of possible error, it still was the equivalent of 1.5 games in total minutes worth of sample size to extrapolate. Here's what it shows.

    In away games in Oakland, Portland was on average 5.5 pts worse than GS without Curry on the floor per game. That could be extrapolated to around -10 pts per 48 minute session. Thus you would look for a spread outside of GS favored between 5-10 in games 1 & 2 and jump on the one that's the other direction.

    In home games at the Moda Center, Portland was on average 8 pts better without Curry on the floor per game, and extrapolated out to a 48 minute game, could be as high as a +13 pt favorite over GS when playing at home. So the spread in theory would be somewhere between 8-13 in Portland's favor, if the spread falls outside of that in Nevada, you jump on the it would fall. In this case likely it will be a pick-em or close to no spread when GS plays in Portland w/o GS, but we'll have to wait until Game 3 to see for sure, and we'll have much more game 1 and game 2 data to dive into by then.

    In total, the good news for Blazers fans is that all of this adds up to a close match-up if Steph were to never return from injury in the series. And through just the first 4 games, assumin Steph doesn't come back within those games, the average math works out at Portland as a +1.1 pts per game using all samples combined and playing 4 games with 2 on each others' courts. So if Steph doesn't come back for games 1-4, we can plan on this being one hell of a nail biter when using some advanced handicapping analytics.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 1, 2016
  2. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2008
    Messages:
    107,743
    Likes Received:
    102,067
    Trophy Points:
    115
    Hey thanks for that! That was interesting.
     
  3. WillG

    WillG Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2008
    Messages:
    1,219
    Likes Received:
    798
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Thanks for sharing!
    Insightful.
     
    SlyPokerDog likes this.
  4. JFizzleRaider

    JFizzleRaider Sad Panda Global Moderator

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2007
    Messages:
    12,868
    Likes Received:
    5,182
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Who Knows?
    Nice info. But someone take this down! Only @Darkwebs gets to make the official gamethreads!
     
    Sedatedfork, Eastoff and Red Rooster like this.
  5. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce 0.9 Bye Bye 61

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2011
    Messages:
    2,223
    Likes Received:
    5,958
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    West Linn, OR
    Nice pic from Alexander's Twitter -

    Vonleh's massive hands are palming Alexander's and Montero's heads.

    Pretty impressive they got all 15 guys in the shot.
     
    HailBlazers and Eastoff like this.
  6. BigGameDamian

    BigGameDamian Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2012
    Messages:
    26,385
    Likes Received:
    9,530
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Who took the snap?
     
  7. BigGameDamian

    BigGameDamian Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2012
    Messages:
    26,385
    Likes Received:
    9,530
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Is that Mo Harkless gang sign?
     
  8. HomerLovesKoolAid

    HomerLovesKoolAid I have a well-known member.

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2010
    Messages:
    6,426
    Likes Received:
    5,825
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Close this bad juju thread immediately, ban the espn guy, and formally apologize to darkwebs before we lose this series.
     
  9. Eastoff

    Eastoff I admit it, I own a Meyers Jersey

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2009
    Messages:
    15,587
    Likes Received:
    3,421
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Tualatin
    Yes, 'I love you'. Straight out of NYC
     
  10. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2008
    Messages:
    59,477
    Likes Received:
    42,651
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    N.E.P.
    Damn who is this sausage that created this thread? Shut this bitch down and have the expert make one, or DarkWingDuck!
     
  11. PDXFonz

    PDXFonz I’m listening!

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    17,050
    Likes Received:
    13,397
    Trophy Points:
    113
    For those who don't know - HOF is an ESPN blazer board legend, and I know he didn't mean to step on any toes.

    Great post HOF. I think that the Warriors fans are underrating the Blazers because they perceive our first round opponent to be weak (which is funny since they played the Rockets).

    As the Rockets learned in the first round - the Warriors are a deep team capable of winning without their star player. It is going to take a collective team effort if we want to advance past this series. I think the determining factor is going to be the play coming from Green/Aminu. Green seems to get a lot of open 3 pointers because of mismatches against taller 4's in the league (similar to how the Clippers left Aminu open so often), while Aminu will be ready to contest his shots off of screens. Many Warrior fans don't know it, or refuse to admit it, but the Blazers from a match-up perspective are actually more difficult for them than the Clippers. The reason I say this is because of similar play styles between the two teams, but more specifically the similarity between players of the same position.

    Lets assume both rosters

    Curry - CP3 (Basically Dame/CP3 except Curry is ahead in development)
    Thompson - Reddick (Advantage GSW due to the height and athleticism of Thompson)
    Barnes - M'bah a Moute (In my book somewhat of a wash depending on the night. Moute a great defender, Barnes great on offense. One night Barnes might be hitting, the next he can't get space and is forced to make the pass)
    Green - Griffin (much like our series this is Griffin if he's 100%. Green shot 38% from three, compared to Aminu's 36%, which is where either team would do their damage against a fully healthy Griffin. That 2% difference is highly negligible in my book)
    Bogut - Jordan (Could Bogut jump high enough, often enough to contend with DJ on >50% of the boards?)

    Now lets look at our match-up with the Warriors and how I see each shaping up.

    Curry - Dame (Coin toss. I feel its quite possible that Curry attempts to out score Dame, while Dame looks to get it done Vs. Curry on the defensive end, which means Advantage Lillard.)
    Thompson - CJ (Advantage GSW. Thomphson has a significant height advantage over CJ which could pose problems on both offense and defense. However I would never completely rule CJ out of any matchup. Don't forget CJ played many minutes against a taller Mbah a Moute; 6'8 vs Thompson at 6'7)
    Barnes - Harkless (Coin toss. Harkless is much more of a factor on the offense end than Mbah a Moute. The more you make your opponent work on defense, the tougher it will be for them to find their offense. Harkless is also no spring chicken on the defensive end, he will be ready to score, but without depleting his energy. Harkless will be ready to hedge screens and stay with Barnes on defense)
    Green - Aminu (WILD CARD!!!! Aminu actually has a slight height advantage over Green. But he doesn't have a lot of experience guarding a PF who plays that role the way Draymond does. If we had made it past a 100% Griffin Clipper squad then Aminu would be more than ready for this matchup, however as it is I wouldn't be surprised to see Draymond get the better of this. Still it could go either way as both players are not necessarily used to playing a 'mirror match')
    Plumlee - Bogut (Can Bogut jump high enough, often enough to contend with Plumlee on >50% of the boards?)

    I really think it's going to be an interesting series. But regardless of what happens, this season will be looked upon as a success. And if for no reason other than that I say GO BLAZERS!!!
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2016
  12. HomerLovesKoolAid

    HomerLovesKoolAid I have a well-known member.

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2010
    Messages:
    6,426
    Likes Received:
    5,825
    Trophy Points:
    113
    If we're going to have a game thread this lame we might as well just let HCP do it.
     
    THE HCP, BBert and JFizzleRaider like this.
  13. BlayZa

    BlayZa Misbehaving responsibly

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2008
    Messages:
    3,250
    Likes Received:
    2,631
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Media/Advertisng
    Location:
    NZ
    peep the sig

    all post season wins going up.
     
    PDXFonz and SlyPokerDog like this.
  14. Darkwebs

    Darkwebs Awakened to emptiness Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2008
    Messages:
    26,917
    Likes Received:
    22,490
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    SE Rip City





    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]






    2015-16 REGULAR SEASON RECORD
    PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
    44 - 38
    (16-25 Road)
    GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

    73 - 9
    (39-2 Home)




    _____________________________
    ---------
    PROBABLE STARTERS---------


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG] PG [​IMG]
    DAMIAN LILLARD VS SHAUN LIVINGSTON

    [​IMG] SG [​IMG]

    C.J. McCOLLUM VS KLAY THOMPSON

    [​IMG] SF [​IMG]

    MAURICE HARKLESS VS HARRISON BARNES

    [​IMG] PF [​IMG]

    AL-FAROUQ AMINU VS DRAYMOND GREEN

    [​IMG] C [​IMG]

    MASON PLUMLEE VS ANDREW BOGUT


    ------------------------------------------------------




    WHEN: 12:30 PM, SUNDAY, 5/1/2016

    WHERE: ORACLE ARENA, OAKLAND, CA
    [​IMG]



    TV BROADCAST:
    [​IMG]

    RADIO BROADCAST:
    [​IMG]


    ------------------------------------------------------



    --------------BENCH--------------
    PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
    ROBERTS , HENDERSON , CRABBE , MONTERO
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
    CONNAUGHTON , VONLEH , DAVIS , KAMAN

    GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
    CLARK , BARBOSA , RUSH , IGUODALA
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
    McADOO , SPEIGHTS , EZELI , VAREJAO

    INJURIES

    TRAIL BLAZERS
    Meyers Leonard (dislocated left shoulder): OUT
    WARRIORS
    Stephen Curry (MCL sprain, right knee): OUT
    Kevon Looney (left hip surgery): OUT



    HEAD COACHES
    [​IMG] - VS – [​IMG]
    TERRY STOTTS --- STEVE KERR




    :reading:WARRIORS' OFFICIAL GAME NOTES
    :reading:BLAZERS' OFFICIAL GAME NOTES



    REGULAR SEASON SERIES
    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2016
  15. Strenuus

    Strenuus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2013
    Messages:
    44,734
    Likes Received:
    28,029
    Trophy Points:
    113
    ^ This needs to be the OP.
     
    Red Rooster and kjironman1 like this.
  16. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 16, 2014
    Messages:
    16,681
    Likes Received:
    17,488
    Trophy Points:
    113
    That HOF post was very informative but like many others on here i am a little superstitious in the way things go and this thread is taking me out of my comfort zone. I really don't know much about "extrapolating R-squared regression probability curves from each of those outcomes when played out thousands of times".... What i do know is the Warriors won 73 games this year and the Blazers have a very tough task in front of them, with or without Curry.

    My biggest problem with the game today has nothing at all to do with advanced analytics and really doesn't touch on rosters. My biggest problem is the 36 hour turn around to a Playoff Game! ABC and TNT had two first series games to televise today. there was absolutely no reason other than Sunday revenue to push this game into the mix so fast. What are they thinking here? Yesterday the NBA seemed to be just fine with a single game BLOWOUT between the Spurs and Thunder and now they have to pack 3 games into Sunday and put the Blazers as close to a B2B as physically possible without actually doing it. At Midnight Friday night i was still in my car driving home from a closeout game. The team obviously was not home in their beds either. The only good thing about this is the break they will get between games 2 and 3 which actually works in the Warriors favor as they are looking to get Curry back. But by that time Portland will have Played both road games and a closeout game over the course of 5 days Friday - Tuesday and the Warriors have been sitting since last Wednesday's drubbing of the Rockets. There is absolutely no reason for pushing this game into the Sunday slot. $$$$ rules and is the Root of all Blazer evil!

    Looking at the way the schedule is playing out i have some worries about the way things will go today. The Blazers will have to try to continue moving and adjusting. GS was the originator of the Blanket theory teams have been using on the Blazers. They will do almost exactly the same thing the Clippers did. They will trap and double Dame and make someone else make a shot. They will also keep the ball out of CJ's hands so the alternative again will be Plumlee and Aminu. Plumlee could again have a monster game as the Warriors do not have a guy like Jordan in the middle and if they start to cheat we could see Harkless get lots of huge dunks. I do not like the idea of Aminu shooting 3's with so little time off and coming off such an emotional win. I would prefer seeing him driving and finding a man but we all know as soon as he starts driving the ball has a mind of it's own.

    To use a Kingspeed quote "They can't guard us" would be a little over the top but there are ways the Blazers have the advantage on offense. The problem is that there are more ways the Warriors have and advantage against every defense they play. The key on this game is to employ the same Blanket theory on Livingston. Take him out and keep the ball out of Thompson's hands off the pick and you make them turn to Barnes and Green. Of course getting Green flustered is always a good thing. Not sure what is going on but Green is shooting way down at 52% from the free throw line? He is typically 70% or better but he is not hitting free throws to this point. Foul him a bit and see what happens. The very worse case scenario is he gets mad at something.

    I am going with a big game from Plumlee and some nifty moves by Harkless as the key to tonight's game. It's almost the same line as we went in the last series. If the supporting cast of the Blazers are playing well and making plays on both Offense and Defense the Blazers can stay in this game. If not it's going to be over quick. Just remember it's only one game of the series no matter what happens.
    Kjironman is a fan!!!
     
  17. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    May 24, 2007
    Messages:
    72,944
    Likes Received:
    10,536
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Never lost a case
    Location:
    Boston Legal
  18. Sedatedfork

    Sedatedfork Rip City Rhapsody

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2008
    Messages:
    7,876
    Likes Received:
    4,203
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Seattle
    @kjironman1 while a 36 hour turnaround is probably bad, the blazers are 4-0 in their last 4 games. I think that bodes well for them. It is a young team and they should play loose.
     
  19. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 16, 2014
    Messages:
    16,681
    Likes Received:
    17,488
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Lets hope you are right.
     
  20. BBert

    BBert Weasels Ripped My Flesh

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2008
    Messages:
    25,115
    Likes Received:
    17,984
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Selfless Public Servant
    Location:
    South Blazerlandia
    DarkWing's threads have won us four straight playoff games. It makes me nervous messing with that kind of success.
     

Share This Page