Please Trade Sergio!

The dunks on the break were freebies in transition, not off a set offense. They were dunks that any NBA scrub could have flushed. It just as easily could have been Batum or Frye depending on who was close when the PG made the steal.

In the actual half-court offense when the defense was set, it was the same old Marty. All his other shots were 3's where he shot 25% (shot cart available at NBA.com).

 

Wrong, I remember at least three of them were from Rudy, and were in the halfcourt. I rarely see Batum cutting to the hoop, and Frye doesn't know he can move within 10 feet of the basket.

 

Telfair did show some promise during the last 26 games of his rookie season, after Cheeks was fired and Pritchard stepped in as interim coach. However, his increased production was mostly a result of increased minutes. I don't know of a site that lists PER splits, but if you just look at his percentages and per minute stats as a starter and reserve, you'll see that his FG% went up, but his 3FG% went down, as did his FT% (slightly). His PTS/36 actually went down, but his AST/36 went up slightly. His TOV/36 also went down as a starter.

Overall, since PER is adjusted based on playing time, I suspect his PER as a starter was slightly higher, but not much, than as a reserve. Also, I don't think any statistical improvement was due to coaching, but due to opportunity (increased PT) and natural growth (adjusting to the NBA game).

His PER his second season, under Nate, was still substantially higher than it would have been as a starter his rookie year. His PTS/36 was much higher (14.5 vs. 11.6), but his AST/36 was lower (5.4 vs. 6.3). His TOV/36 was also down under Nate (2.4 vs. 3.1) compared to as a starter under Pritchard. So, his AST/TOV ratio was better under Nate. However, keep in mind that PER adjusts for both playing time and pace, and as we all know, ever since Nate started coaching the Blazers his teams have been at, or near the bottom of the league in game pace.

Again, I don't know of a site that gives splits on advanced stats like PER, but given that he played over twice as many minutes as starter than as a reserve his rookie year, had a PER of 9.7 for the year, and his scoring (PTS/36) went down as a starter, I doubt if his PER as a starter would have been above 11.0. Most likely, it was somewhere between 10.5 and 11.0. Actually, if you look at his PER 36 numbers as a rookie starter, you will see they are very similar to what they were last season in Minnesota when he had a PER of 10.4. Under Nate, in his second season, Telfair's PER was a career best (by a substantial margin) 13.0.

BNM

 

I stand by they were plays that 90% of NBA SFs would have finished. Webster is solid on the break, but nothing special.

I'm looking forward to the return of Webster to prove me wrong, but he's disappointed he thus far in his career.

 

I would love to see Sergio in New York so he can run as much as he wants. He would get huge stats, be considered the break out player of the year and lead his team to a first round exit in the playoffs every single year.

 

The explanation for the increase in shooting, decrease in assists, and decrease in turnovers is easy to explain. McMillain took the ball out of Telfair's hands. I remember Bassy would bring the ball up the floor and hand it off to Joel at the top of the three point line. 2006 was the last year I covered the team, and I remember asking him about it. Telfair needed the ball in his hands to be effective (in his mind). He hated giving the ball up so quickly.

The ball in his hands less equates to a decrease in assists and turnovers.

 

Then why did he score at a 35% higher rate under Nate than at any other time during his career? How can he score so much if he doesn't have the ball in his hands?

Actually his assists were down only slighty, and that had more to do with pace than anything else.

So, why hasn't Telfair thrived elsewhere after getting out from under the repressive Nate McMillan? His next year in Boston was an absolute disaster, and both years in Minnesota are very similar to his rookie year. I don't see how you can blame the guy who coached him during his second season (and, by far his most productive) for the fact that he plays no better in his 5th season than his rookie year.

If Nate has a fault, it's that he tries to force players to play his way, to fit his system. Not all players are able to play the way he wants. Telfair and Sergio were both young enough when they started playing for Nate that he probably thought he could teach them to protect the ball and play defense. It hasn't worked out, but I blame the players more than the coach for their lack of improvement.

As I said, Telfair has played substantialy worse after leaving Portland than he did his one season here under Nate. Sergio is now in his third season and has the EXACT same faults he had as a rookie. He's still a horrible shooter and can't play a lick of defense. Those who think his shooting is better this year need to do two things - look at his stats and watch him shoot the ball. His FG% and 3FG% are now both worse than the were last year. And, he has to have the ugliest looking shot I've ever seen on an NBA player. I was watching him during warm-ups before the GS game on Saturday. His alignment and form are both horrible. He brings the ball to the right side of his head, cocks it back and then flings it at the basket. The result is a flat shot with little or no rotation and little chance of going in. Joel Przybilla has better shooting form than Sergio these days. When he drives the lane, he just flips up some weak looking shot and hopes the refs will bail him out. I figured that was just his own way of getting a shot off in traffic, but he actually shoots the same way in warm-ups with no one guarding him (and misses most of them, too). They are the type of casual, goofing around shots you throw up in a game of horse against your nine year old brother, not the kind you should be shooting in an NBA game.

BNM

 

Look at Blake. There's a perfect example. Blake doesn't have the ball in his hands most of the time, yet he is scoring more this season than any other. It's pretty obvious that McMillain fancies point guards who can shoot the ball, Telfair couldn't shoot so he was moved (for Roy thank god).

Our offense favors players who can run the pick-and-roll (IE Blake, Roy, Aldridge, etc). If our point guard can't hit the open jumper, he becomes worthless in this system. Roy can hit a jumper, Blake can hit a jumper, Sergio can not, Frye can not. If Bayless proves he can't hit a jumper either, we'll probably end up moving him for someone who can.

Telfair is a point who needs to dominate the ball. He needs to dribble around the key until he sees an opening. I'm not saying it's effective, but that's how he plays. Sergio is very similar. They need the ball in their hands to make plays. Nate doesn't like to have his point guard dribbling around the key until something opens up. He pushes them to pass it off to Oden or Przybilla at the top of the key (something that drives me nuts). I will never understand why our center is above the free throw line at the beginning of the play, instead of working for position in the paint.

They end up shooting a lot of three's or mid-range jumpers. A higher volume of shots would raise Telfair's ppg. His three pointers attempted nearly tripled in this year under nate, from 69 his rookie season up to 162 under McMillain.

 

I understand your point in general, but I still don't see how it explains Telfair's much higher scoring rate the season he played for Nate. You say he needs the ball in his hands to be effective, but that Nate's system prevents that (thus, you claim fewer assists and fewer turnovers). Then you claim Nate's system favors guys who can shoot, and Telfair can't shoot. So, if he didn't have the ball in his hands, and he's not a good spot up shooter, how on earth did he score at a much higher rate the year he played for Nate than during the other 4 years of his NBA career? It just doesn't add up.

IMHO, Nate's system forced Telfair to slow down and play more under control. The slower pace negatively impacted his raw stats, but made Telfair a better, more efficient player. His AST/TOV ratio was better under Nate. So, he was taking better care of the ball and committing fewer mistakes. He also had the highest TS% and eFG% of his career (again, by significant margins), which means his shot selection was better. He was getting open looks within the flow of the offense and that resulted in the highest and most efficient scoring rates of his career.

Was Telfair's skill set a good match for Nate's system? No, definitely not. But, that one year he played for Nate remains, by a large margin, the best season he's had in the NBA.

BNM

 

Basically what I'm saying BNM is that Nate made Telfair into a scorer, instead of a passer and playmaker. I guess if you want to point to his scoring as improved under nate, that's fine. I never cared much for Bassy as a scorer, so I think it's a dubious honor.