The draft over rebuild process is really like a poker hand. You have the trading for known players (KK) vs players that there is no guarantee they will produce but there is still a shot (AK). 3/4th of the time the known commodity wins but there is always a chance that ace hits and your all-star appears from your picks. Chances of them becoming a superstar are more like AA vs AK.
Only hits with top 3 pick. otherwise, we have 10 teams looking to be title contenders with this draft? Please. 2 players out of this will probably be allstars within the next 3-4 years.
Iguodala is fools gold...His game is already deteriorating at age 28...a weak #3 option at best...I wouldn't trade a chance at a #1 or #2 option for a player like him...
Again, I would love to see some realistic names...b\c the ones being bantered about are less than impressive...
OKC could use another scoring threat in the starting lineup and Matthews couldn't be a more perfect fit. And Matthews and Harden could easily play at the same time. The reason Sefolosha's minutes get cut is because he's so anemic offensively. Honestly, think it's crazy you think it's even debatable.
Here are the past few years of 6 and 11 picks: 2000: DeMarr Johnson, Jerome Moiso 2001: Shane Battier, Kedrick Brown 2002: DaJuan Wagner, Jared Jeffries 2003: Chris Kaman, Mickael Pietrus 2004: Shaun Livingston, Andris Biedrins 2005: Martell Webster, Fran Vazquez 2006: Brandon Roy, JJ Redick 2007: Yi Jianlian, Acie Law 2008: Danilo Gallinari, Jerryd Bayless 2009: Jonny Flynn, Terrence Williams 2010: Ekpe Udoh, Cole Aldrich 2011: Jan Vesley, Klay Thompson Summary: Keeping the draft picks is not the smart choice.
at least, and probably more than that that will be borderline all star...but certainly top "core 3" on a team worthy.... This is a strong draft...There is a reason why teams have been very reluctant to part with thier picks.... It will require strong scouting, something POR has not shown themselves capable of recently....and yes there are 3-4 picks who there is broader consensus on (and 1 who stands alone) and after that a group of 10-15 players or so where the real scouting will pay off b\c in that group there will be some #1-#3 caliber type players available....That is why scouts are saying a #6 pick may not have any more value per say than a #14 pick b\c the player taken there could easily be better....but irregardless of all that the POINT is that there will be top level talent at #6 and #11 for POR to potentially take, they just have to pick the right guys.... So you keep the picks and take the chance and hope your scouts have correctly identified those players....b\c as I have said repeatedly even if you only hit on ONE of those picks the team will be markedly better for it, than trading both for mid tier established players...
I would like to see the players passed over that ended up being good picks. Because of those picks, only Brandon Roy and Gallinari were solid at 6. Of course, it also depends on the DEPTH of the draft. Kaman wasn't a bad pick in 03 (a deep draft, iirc), but the 07 draft was a "deep" one and Yi amounted to nothing.
I did 10 year historical #6 and #10 draft picks. 1 all-star the entire 10 years and that was Brandon Roy. No one even close to being an allstar. History says that you are severely overrating the value of these picks.
that's why I did a 10 year sample, which is a good sample size showing that over time, it really is irrelevant of the depth of the draft. They aren't generally game changers at these positions. If they are, its more of a freak occurrence more than anything. Top 3 is the only place where its at.
Yeah and you cherry picked and skipped all of the players in b\t the #6 and #10 picks, or picks just past #10 (like in the teens) guys like: Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudamire, Nene, Luol Deng, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Andrew Bynum, Danny Granger, Rudy Gay, Joakim Noah, Eric gordon, Brook Lopez, Stephon Curry, Demar Derozan, Brandon jennings, Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson..... A few All-Stars there I think.... A lot of good (#2-#3 type) players....
I didn't cherry pick. #6 and #11, which are our likely picks and the ones you can think we can find the "diamond in the rough". Need some consistency, which I have listed. However, history shows that its not likely. But if you want to include every draft pick from #6 and beyond for 12 years, you're going to find more crap than stars. Like I said, finding a star outside of the top 3 picks is more of an outlier than anything. Its a bad strategy to bank your future on picking up players outside the top 3-4 picks in the draft.
I'm guessing the 80/20 principle works here. Top 3 picks: 80% of the time you will get a star or useful player that will help you win. 20% of the time you will get crap. Anything after that: 20% of the time you will get a star or useful player that will help you win. 80% of the time you will get crap.
I'm all for a 'quick' rebuild over a retool. And with the base of talent you have in place, I think you can do it quickly.
Take LA and one of your picks and move it for this years number one. No better to player to build your team around than a big man.
